This article is part of our Football Predictions series.
Aston Villa host Tottenham at Villa Park on Friday in a massive match for Villa's chances of qualifying for the Champions League.
Aston Villa have been on a roll and are tied on points with Chelsea for the final Champions League spot. Unai Emery's side were beaten badly 4-1 back in November, but they got revenge in a 2-1 February win in the FA Cup.
Tottenham clearly don't care about the Premier League anymore. They have a massive Europa League final against Manchester United on Wednesday and could finish in 17th place in the Premier League. It'll be interesting to see if Ange Postecoglou continues a rotated XI in league play or if he uses this match as a tune up for the Cup final.
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Premier League Best Bets for Aston Villa vs. Tottenham
Ollie Watkins Poised to Shine Against Tottenham's Defense
Marcus Rashford is still injured which means Ollie Watkins will be leading the line for Aston Villa.
Watkins' form has been up and down this season. He's been replaced in the starting XI at times by both Jhon Duran and Rashford, but even with that inconsistent form, he's still scored 16 goals in the Premier League.
He also has a 0.56 xG per-90 minute scoring rate, which is actually higher than his average last season when he scored 19 goals.
He's scored three goals in his last five appearances and I like him to find of the back of the net against Spurs at -138.
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Morgan Rogers Key to Aston Villa's Offensive Strategy
Tottenham haven't bothered in recent Premier League matches, and that likely means Aston Villa are going to have loads of chances.
The main man who has been creating most of the chances for Aston Villa has been Morgan Rogers. He's been playing more on the left, but often will invert into the half space and is the one carrying the ball at the defense once Villa break the press, which is probably going to happen a lot against Tottenham.
Youri Tielemans will remain out and he's the only person on Aston Villa who has more passes leading to a shot than Rogers.
Rogers also leads Villa with the most goal-creating actions and has three assists in his last five appearances. I like the value on him to have an assist in this match at +300.
Tottenham's Defensive Struggles Present Opportunity for Villa
Tottenham have been terrible defensively for most of the season, but the last few matches have been even worse.
Against Crystal Palace last Sunday, they conceded eight big scoring chances, 3.38 expected goals and 23 shots. They seemingly don't care about the Premier League anymore with their full focus on the Europa League final.
Over the second half of the season, Tottenham are allowing 1.83 xG per 90 minutes, which is as bad as it sounds. It's the fourth-worst mark in the Premier League during that time and the three teams below them have all already been relegated.
Even in the previous league meeting despite losing 4-1, Aston Villa created close to two expected goals. I like the value on their team total over 2.5 at +100.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham: Betting Odds and Predictions
- Ollie Watkins Anytime Goalscorer (-138)
- Morgan Rogers Anytime Assist (+300)
- Aston Villa Team Total Over 2.5 goals (+100)
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