This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
While most other leagues had a break over the holidays, the Premier League plowed through. And while league competition takes a break next weekend, every team is competing in the FA Cup, which is following by the Carabao Cup in the midweek.
Unfortunately, real breaks don't exist for the next month-plus. There's a ton of Cup play, league play and then UEFA returns. Some teams are running thin in terms of depth, while others are coasting and keeping their same basic starting XIs.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches.
Record: 29-28. Up $251 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Everton at Bournemouth
Under 2.5 goals between Bournemouth and Everton -105
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You'd have to be drunk to take over goals in an Everton match. With or without Dwight McNeil, they haven't shown much offensively this season and I don't think Armando Broja will solve those issues. Bournemouth are great at winning the ball back when out of possession, but that isn't a major factor against Everton.
The last couple matches between these sides has been decided in the final minutes and it's hard to continually bank on stoppage-time goals. Bournemouth stole three points down 2-0 earlier this season, scoring three goals after the 86th minute.
Since it seems impossible that Everton will repeat a 2-0 lead away from home, I don't think Bournemouth will need to push for a late goal in this one. This contest has the makings of another dead Everton match in which they try to win 1-0 but instead it finishes scoreless. Or like in the Nottingham Forest game, they allow a goal or two and can't get any good opportunities themselves.
EPL Best Bets for Ipswich Town at Fulham
Under 2.5 goals between Fulham and Ipswich +110
After talking about this match on Kits & Wagers, I sold myself on taking the under. Fulham have the fourth-best xGA in the league and outside of one major slip up against Wolves (four goals allowed), have been stout defensively. A couple midfield injuries are worrisome, but Ipswich Town don't have the team to exploit that area consistently.
When they met in August, a 1-1 result, they combined for 1.40 expected goals. I expect something similar in this spot where Ipswich struggle for quality opportunities away, while Fulham have trouble breaking down a team that will be doing a lot of sitting back.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester United at Liverpool
Liverpool -4.5 corners against Man Utd +120
Liverpool win to nil against Man Utd +135
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When will Manchester United show life under Ruben Amorim? Will they ever? They get Bruno Fernandes and Manuel Ugarte back from suspension for this match, but both have often been in the lineup during this losing streak and scoreless run.
This is in range for another 2-0 loss for Man United. Returning Ugarte and Kobbie Mainoo to the midfield is helpful, while Fernandes is always a threat to make things happen offensively. Still, in most games under Amorim, this team has struggled to accrue corners. If this game is scoreless at half, expect Liverpool to be in the attacking third racking up corners plenty in the second half.
I think it's easy to project 10 or so Liverpool corners at home, while United will sit around the two or three mark.
If you want to attach the moneyline and 'no' on both teams to score into a single-game parlay, that's fine, but I prefer to do them separately, both at plus odds.
EPL Best Bets for Nottingham Forest at Wolverhampton
SGP: Forest double chance + under 2.5 goals +130
I've been wrong on Nottingham Forest a lot this season. I admit, they've been impressive and their ability to limit every opponent from getting good opportunities has been infuriating, especially since they've been incredibly efficient themselves at the few goal-scoring chances they get.
Considering Wolves won't have Matheus Cunha, it's hard to see how they'll get good chances in this match. Cunha leads the team by wide margins in Chances Created From Open Play and Big Chances Created. Remove him from the lineup and Wolves could struggle to surpass .50 xG in this game.
Still, I find it hard to take Nottingham Forest moneylines against anyone. So many of their goals have come from wingers speeding down the pitch and finding Chris Wood in the center of the box, or the wingers making things happen themselves. Against three center-backs and a team that is playing without its best player, a scoreless draw is in range. That being the case, I'll take a same-game parlay and get better than even odds.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 20
- Under 2.5 goals between Bournemouth and Everton -105
- Under 2.5 goals between Fulham and Ipswich +110
- Liverpool -4.5 corners against Man Utd +120
- Liverpool win to nil against Man Utd +135
- SGP: Forest double chance + under 2.5 goals +130
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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