This article is part of our Thunderbastard series.
Yes, my loyal follower(s), it has been too long since I wrote to you and I apologize for my absence. But no worries, I'm back and I hope that today's work can help lead you to fantasy victories, financial windfalls, and bragging rights at your Super Bowl Party.
So sit back and let the Thunderbastard give you some much needed advice on how to use this weekend's Super Bowl Prop Bets to help guide your Fantasy EPL weekend!
Who will win the Super Bowl? Patriots -5 over Eagles
Sure, most of the "experts" out there are anxious to tell us that the Eagles are nothing but a speed bump on New England's road to another Super Bowl, but I am here to tell you otherwise. The Pats run of good fortune is going to come crashing to a halt when the Eagles complete a 4th Quarter comeback and win 36-31 (thus, put your money on Philly).
Philadelphia won't be the only Eagles with a big victory this weekend. The Day of the Eagles will start early Sunday morning when Crystal Palace (the Eagles) hosts Newcastle at Selhurst Park in London. Both teams are hovering just above relegation and a win for either would help give some much needed separation for the bottom three.
Look for Palace to avenge their early season 1-0 loss and flip the script on The Magpies. 25 year old Wilfried Zaha (£6.9) will net the game's lone goal (rumor has it he turned down a transfer to Spurs) in the 60th minute and he should be worth a look on your daily fantasy lineup.
Sunday will be a big day for the Eagles on both sides of the pond.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle goals vs Jay Ajayi receptions
There are even more Crystal Palace connections to the Super Bowl - and if you ask me, this one is free money. Ajayi had 10 receptions in his 7 regular season games with the Eagles, but he has had 3 in each of their previous playoff games. Considering Zaha's goal will be the only one in Palace's 1-0 victory, put your money on Ajayi's receptions (he will get at least 2) --- you can thank me later!
Total Touchdowns in game - 5 ½
This is one of the easier bets and honestly, it is a good one to risk your son's college fund on. I am looking for upwards of 9 touchdowns in this shootout and the teams should pass 5½ touchdowns early in the 3rd Quarter.
If you want another sure bet that deals with a high scoring contest put your $ on Chelsea. Monday's Chelsea vs Watford matchup promises to be the highest scoring EPL game of the week (mostly due to Chelsea). Look for Chelsea to bounce back after an embarrassing defeat to Bournemouth (3-0) and take a very convincing 5-1 victory over Watford. Watford has given up the 2nd most goals in the league this season and Chelsea should have its way with the Hornet's porous D. An offensive explosion like this will give plenty of players a chance to score; but, with Spain's Alvaro Morata a question mark due to a bad back, there is no sure fantasy play. This certainly seems like a game where Eden Hazard (£10.7) could be a solid play; however if you feel like taking a little bit of a risk take a look at the newest member of the squad, Olivier Giroud. An inspired Giroud could be looking to a make a statement for future playing time and at £8.2 he could be a good start (assuming Morata is unable to play).
Who will be the first player to score in the Super Bowl?
I have gone back and forth on this one. Here is what we know, the Pats will win the toss and defer until the 2nd, meaning the Eagles will get the ball first. I am looking for Foles to drive Philadelphia down the field and get some points immediately - I just can't decide if it will be a Lagarette Blount TD (he is 9/1 to score first) or a Jake Elliott field goal (he is 7/2). If you made me pick, I am going with Blount to cap off a 75 yard drive; but, Elliot is probably the safer pick.
Who scores the first goal of the EPL weekend is much easier bet. For one, we know it will certainly come from Saturday morning's early kickoff between Burnley and Man City. Plus, we can pretty much guarantee that it will come from City.They have been a machine this year and picking them to score first and win does not take a genius. That said, though I don't look for Burnley to bump them off, they will make it interesting for a bit. Burnley has only given up 22 goals and is not an easy team to unlock. Look for them to frustrate City for a good part of the first half, until Kevin De Bruyne (£10.2) breaks the deadlock (43rd minute) and scores the weekend's first goal (I bet you thought I was going with Mix Diskerud). Besides that score, expect De Bruyne to have an assist and be a solid fantasy play in all formats.
Who will win the Super Bowl MVP?
Another relatively easy one - this year's Super Bowl MVP will be Nick Foles. I expect Foles to wrap up the award when he connects with Zach Ertz (husband USWNT star Julie Ertz) late in the 4th to secure the victory and send the Patriots and their fans home to eat avocado ice cream and cry. Per usual, Vegas has listened to The Thunderbastad and made Foles a 4 to 1 pick to win the award.
As Foles looks like a pretty clear pick to win the MVP award, there are a handful of possible picks to captain your fantasy side this weekend. Harry Kane (12 goals in last 8 games) is going up against an improving, but still vulnerable Liverpool defense and it is hard to imagine him being kept off the scoresheet. A sneaky pick could be Callum Wilson (£5.8) at Bournemouth (coming off a 9pt game in their crazy win vs Chelsea). Wilson has 4 goals in his last 6 starts and he will be going up against a Stoke team that has been giving up goals for fun. Wilson won't be the sexy pick, but at a low cost he is a reasonable play and a possible surprise star of the weekend. While Kane and Wilson are solid possible picks, my choice would be another surprise, Jesse Lingard (£6.3) at Man U. Lingard has been in good form for United and will be going up against a Huddersfield team that got run all over the pitch during their midweek loss (3-0) to Liverpool. Yes, likewise, Man U was embarrassed at Wembley vs Spurs; however, I imagine they will come out firing and take a convincing win. Look for Lingard to have a Foles like performance and be this weekend's MVP...you can thank me later!
Liverpool/Tottenham total goals vs Torrey Smith's receptions
This is a tough one, and one of the few bets I might stay away from this weekend (unless you want to lend me some money). Smith had 36 receptions on the season and has had a total of 8 in the first couple of playoff games. It is certainly not hard to imagine him hauling in a minimum of 4 catches on Sunday (hopefully at least one for a touchdown). At the same time, it is not hard to imagine Liverpool and Tottenham putting up some serious numbers as well. Both teams will be battling to stay in the race for the top four and Liverpool at Anfield is always a recipe for some goals. Without a doubt, this has the potential to be one of the more entertaining games of the year (Spurs looked fantastic dismantling United on Wednesday). I'm expecting an open contest with lots of quality chances (who knows how many expected goals we may see) - take Liverpool to win this game 3-2 and thus out score Smith's receptions by 1 (5-4).
Since we are looking at five goals being put up during this game there are certainly some good fantasy plays here. Look for Kane to get a goal and an assist and be the easy pick for the Spurs. Liverpool has a few more moving parts, as fans are calling for the benching of Sadio Mane and Daniel Sturridge is on his way to West Brom. One man that we know will be on the field for Liverpool is Mohamed Salah (£10.3). Salah (you should all be excited to watch Egypt at the World Cup) has been a man possessed this season and there is no reason to see that stopping with this game. Get Salah into any and all lineups, even against an excellent Tottenham squad.
Will Tom Brady have more rushing attempts than the number of yellow cards handed out in Sunday's match between Liverpool and Tottenham?
The Smith reception bet is not the only prop bet involving Liverpool and Tottenham this weekend. Vegas is getting a little tricky with this one and is trying to catch people that might not know the rushing rules in the NFL. Tommy Brady isn't gonna be looking to call his own number very often in this game, but he still might pile up a few attempts. The 40-year-old quarterback had 25 rushing attempts in 16 regular season games and six attempts in two playoff games this season. Remember, a quarterback sneak (damn you Steelers, why didn't you have Ben sneak vs Jacksonville) obviously counts as a run, as does a kneel down (which is the rule many might not know). We can expect Giselle's husband to have at least one sneak in the game and possibly he will kneel down to end the 1st half deep in his own territory. But, TB12 isn't gonna be kneeling at the end (if he even makes it through the game) as he tries to lead the Pats back and thus I am limiting his run total in this game to a max of two.
As mentioned, this is big game between Liverpool and Tottenham and you can absolutely expect a few yellow cards. Though both teams are averaging just over 1 card per game this year, you can bet on them to be over this average on Sunday. Emotions will be high for this important fixture and some tired legs at the end might lead to a couple of late tackles and cards. I am looking for 4+ in this contest and thus clearly you should take Liverpool/Tottenham cards over Tommy's running attempts. (FYI - I hope Brady gets sacked 8 times)
Kyrie's Points vs Gronk's longest reception?
Sure, I know this may not seem to be about the EPL or fantasy soccer, but stay with me on this one. First off, I just like this prop bet. I could see this starting some excellent arguments at The Fours, Cask N Flagon, and multiple other Boston establishments. Plus, I am just a sucker for these bets that bring different sports together.
When it comes to Gronk, during the regular season he averaged 15.7 yds per catch and that has dropped to 14.6 in the playoffs. As for Kyrie, well, when it comes to anything basketball I always reach out to my friend, neighbor, and resident hoop expert (self-proclaimed) Ken "K-Train" Crites. K-Train tells me that Kyrie will score 28 points Friday versus Atlanta and I believe him! Gronk has had a reception of over 27 yards in only five games and thus the smart bet seems to be Kyrie. (Editor's Note: let's hope Kyrie returns from the quad injury that made him miss Wednesday's game versus the Knicks. Second Editor's Note: The K-Train is awesome.)
The connection to the EPL? Well, I am guessing that the K-Train would be a big Swansea fan (he would love Wilfried Bony) and right now they are one of the hottest teams around (right Liverpool and Arsenal?!?). The Swans hasn't lost since Jan 2 and have only given up four goals in their six game unbeaten streak (though I still don't know how Liverpool didn't score at the end of their game). Bony got two minutes in the win over Arsenal and his time has been sporadic at best. So, if you are looking for someone from Saturday's game against Leicester to get in your lineup I would suggest going with Polish goalkeeper, Lukasz Fabianski (£4.6). Fabianski is one of the top keepers in the league and in his current form he is one of the best plays of the weekend, as he has an excellent chance to post a clean sheet. (Editor's Note: Yes, the K-Train loves Bony).
Suarez and Messi (Espanyol) vs Nick Foles TD
My favorite prop bet of them all - not directly related to the EPL, but a good one nonetheless. You know I am tabbing Foles to have a big game and get the MVP award for throwing three touchdown passes. But, I would look for the Messi/Suarez duo to combine for four against Espanyol (Suarez with three and Messi with a late PK). Plus, any chance to have an excuse to watch Barcelona is worth it (enjoy them while we can).
Today's Thunderbastard: A blast by Aberdeen's Scott McKenna
(Editor's Note: Stan Thunderbastard Williams is a shameless Steelers fan and hates the Pats despite living in New England.)
