This article is part of our Daily Fantasy Soccer Cheat Sheet series.
We're always working with small sample sizes in Major League Soccer thanks to the incredible fluctuations in team form from month to month and even week to week. New England and D.C. United are drastically improved from their late summer form, while the formerly league-leading Colorado Rapids have won just three games in three months. Heading into this game week, some teams have fallen out of playoff contention (Columbus) and others truly have their backs against the wall (New England). Others are fighting for a first-round bye or even the Supporters Shield (New York, Los Angeles, Colorado, Dallas). It's up to us to determine how we think the unmotivated teams will come out and play. It's also up to us to weigh a team's desperation against its actual quality of late.
MATCHES (EDT)
7:00 p.m: Philadelphia Union at New York Red Bulls
7:30 p.m.: Chicago Fire at Columbus Crew
7:30 p.m: Sporting Kansas City at New England Revolution
7:30 p.m: D.C. United at Toronto FC
9:00 p.m: Portland Timbers at Colorado Rapids
9:00 p.m: Los Angeles Galaxy at FC Dallas
10:30 p.m: Real Salt Lake at San Jose Earthquakes
ODDS REPORT
EXPECTED CORNER TAKERS
Philadelphia Union: Tranquillo Barnetta, Alejandro Bedoya,
New York Red Bulls: Sacha Kljestan
Chicago Fire: Arturo Alvarez
Columbus Crew: Mohammed Saeid
Sporting KC: Brad Davis, Benny Feilhaber
D.C. United: Lloyd Sam
Toronto FC: Michael Bradley, Sebastian Giovinco
Portland Timbers: Jack Jewsbury, Diego Valeri
Colorado Rapids: Shkelzen Gashi
Los Angeles Galaxy: Steven Gerrard, Giovani Dos Santos
FC Dallas: Mauro Diaz, Mauro Rosales
Real Salt Lake: Joao Plata, Javier Morales
San Jose Earthquakes: Alberto Quintero, Simon Dawkins
PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
GOALKEEPER
Nick Rimando, RSL at SJE: If you're paying more than $4,000 for a goalkeeper on DraftKings, you're doing it wrong, or at least only doing it for a differential, which I can get behind. There are a handful of keepers playing on the road that just make too much sense to take a calculated chance on, my favorite of which are Rimando, Jake Gleeson, Bill Hamid and Sean Johnson. Rimando gets an ideal matchup with an all-but-eliminated San Jose Earthquakes side that hasn't won a match since August 12! They have three goals in their past six matches. Real Salt Lake are in the best defensive form of their season, with just six goals allowed in their past six games. A knock against Rimando is that he isn't facing a barrage of shots, and thus giving up save points. However, San Jose could very well abandon their defense-first, or rather defense-only, approach now that their season is lost. Give the fans something to cheer about! Give Rimando some shots to save! Everything sets up to make Rimando a great cash game play, and I wouldn't hesitate to send him out in tournaments either since plenty of people still gravitate towards the keepers playing at home.
Bill Hamid, DCU at TOR: Toronto FC have tied three straight home matches, while D.C. United have four wins and two draws in their last six. I don't think this matchup is nearly as lopsided as the odds suggest, which makes me willing to buy a dirt-cheap Hamid. United need to keep earning points with New England four points back for the final playoff spot and Orlando City five behind. Toronto will be motivated too, but perhaps less so. Sebastian Giovinco is poised to return, likely from the bench rather than as a starter, but more shots from Seba could as easily mean more saves for Hamid. Remember, all it takes to negate the points from a goal against is one save. Given the keeper scoring, picking the right one can sometimes feel like you're playing roulette, so why not take one of the most talented ones in the league at one of the lowest prices?
DEFENDER
Alvas Powell, POR at COL: For a couple of months the upper tier of DraftKings defenders has been more consistent than we are used to. Players like Taylor Kemp, Justin Morrow, Fabinho and Harrison Afful have rarely let us down lately. Another to add that list is Powell, who is tallying stats across the board and giving Portland a dimension that they severely lacked during his absence earlier this season. In what is nearly a must-win match for Portland, I'm not at all concerned about the Rapids lone goal allowed in their past six home fixtures. With either Ned Grabavoy or Jack Barmby set to be forced into action in place of the injured Darren Mattocks and Lucas Melano, the Timbers will need Powell to push forward even more than usual. Alongside talents like Diego Valeri, Fanendo Adi and Darlington Nagbe, that extra attacking activity could prove very fruitful for Powell.
Kemar Lawrence, NYR v. PHI: By nearly all accounts, Lawrence has had an incredibly poor season. With a prolonged injury absence sandwiched between two poor streaks of play, I'd understand if you wrote Lawrence off until 2017. But with some glimmers of hope in his recent play, and a matchup where the Red Bulls are heavily favored, I'm considering him this week in the middle tier of defender prices. The Red Bulls haven't lost in 13 straight MLS matches thanks to a defense that is finally finding its footing. Lawrence has been a recent part of that, and is their most dangerous fullback in terms of getting forward. He can be their poor man's Alvas Powell, and they should try to get him firing on all cylinders as the postseason approaches. Without a ton of defenders that stand out in this price range, this is the week I'm willing to give Lawrence another chance in some lineups.
Brandon Vincent, CHI at CLB: In the lone match of the week featuring two non-playoff teams, I imagine Chicago will give their bright young rookie a full 90 minutes. Columbus will be let down by missing the postseason just a year removed from hosting the MLS Cup, and Chicago could very well take advantage. Columbus have allowed 10 goals in their prior six home matches, while Chicago have scored seven in the same amount of road games. Vincent hasn't quite put together an all-around dominant fantasy performance yet this season, but he's shown aptitude at each of the individual things we look for. If he ticks a couple of the boxes at a cheap price, we'll get our value back. If he finally puts it all together in Columbus, we could have the week's best defender.
MIDFIELDER
Sacha Kljestan, NYR v. PHI: The average points column in DraftKings contests can be incredibly deceiving. Of the top seven midfielders, Mauro Diaz and Kljestan have the lowest average points number. Guess who I think this slate's two best midfield plays are! Recency bias reigns in the DraftKings pricing, with Shkelzen Gashi, Diego Valeri and Giovani Dos Santos all having healthy scoring totals lately. All three are more expensive but have worse matchups. Diaz and Kljestan are at home and are the only two of the bunch on teams with an expected goal total of at least 1.8. If I have to pick between the two, I lean towards Kljestan, who doesn't face the Bruce Arena-coached Galaxy. Philadelphia have given the Red Bulls fits in the second half of matches this season, but that just makes me favor a surging New York team more. They're sick of letting their foot off the pedal against the Union and will want to get the monkey off of their back in case they meet them in the playoffs. Kljestan pulls the strings with seven crosses in each of their past three matches, and I'd feel comfortable making him one of the centerpieces of my lineups.
Justin Meram, CLB v. CHI: The box score doesn't show it, but Meram was flying around the field in the Crew's nil-nil draw with D.C. United on Wednesday night. Given that he was substituted in the 65th minute, I expect him to get another run in front of the home crowd this weekend. Meram will likely be lower owned than other players in his price range like Chris Pontius, Lee Nguyen and Michael Bradley, but he has more upside than all of them this week. His fantasy scores of late aren't promising, but few midfielders in this tier tick all the boxes like Meram does. With Columbus out of the playoff picture, they should let Meram attack at will alongside Ethan Finlay and Ola Kamara. This group is still capable of scoring in bunches and Chicago are typically the team to do it against.
Alejandro Bedoya, PHI at NYR: This pick really rests on the status of Tranquillo Barnetta. Should Barnetta be held out again with a knee issue, Bedoya will likely be the beneficiary of increased attacking responsibilities. With Barnetta out last match, Bedoya scored a goal and tallied five crosses in Toronto. This week's match against the Red Bulls is tougher, but not by much, and Philadelphia have only been held scoreless in one of their past six road games. Bedoya's ownership levels may be low, too, given Red Bulls midfielder Daniel Royer is $300 cheaper and also scored last match. I likely lean Royer in cash games, but Bedoya could be the GPP gem we search for each week.
FORWARD
Dom Dwyer, SKC at NER: Dwyer led off our forward picks last week and I'm inclined to keep rolling with him. While I'm somewhat concerned with missing out on Bradley Wright-Phillips, who is one goal behind David Villa for the Golden Boot, and I'm tempted by Robbie Keane, who scored twice last match, it feels like Dwyer is the best value of the bunch. Sporting have a fragile hold on the fifth playoff spot, with both Seattle and Portland right behind them. While New England have been much better of late, and Kansas City are bottom of the league in road goals scored, Dwyer and company should be able to overcome those narratives and steal a result in Foxborough. In his past six matches, Dwyer has failed to reach a combined seven fouls drawn and shots taken just once. That's the consistency we want in a top priced forward to go with certain goal-scoring potential. An argument can easily be made for anyone between the $9,500 Jozy Altidore and $8,500 Fanendo Adi, but Dwyer makes a case for both the best matchup and form of the bunch.
Juan Agudelo, NER v. SKC: Agudelo is exactly the type of forward we hope to find late in the season. He has potential but spent much of the season without consistent minutes or chances. He is in form, but not overwhelmingly so, keeping his price down. Since forcing his way into the lineup, he has two goals and two assists in four appearances of at least 70 minutes. Peripheral points aren't plentiful, but that production has still amounted to a 13-point average overall and 19-point average at home. Agudelo's performance makes paying $2,800 more for Kei Kamara a hard pill to swallow, and on a week when we can likely only fit three top attacking options, he could be a necessary pick to fill out the roster with affordable scoring potential.
Fabian Herbers, PHI at NYR: I didn't come into this piece looking to write up two Union players as they head into a road match where their opponent is heavily favored, but the truth is that Herbers has a brighter outlook than anyone within $1,000 of him. Chicago forwards Luis Solignac and Michael de Leeuw are total tossups. Dominique Badji and Jacob Peterson are just dart throws. There's a clever rhyme out there somewhere about Mike Grella being relegated to the bench. Plainly speaking, Henok Goitom plays for San Jose! But Herbers? He has an assist in each of his past three matches. He has at least two shots in five of his past six games. He's effectively made his way from a clear C.J. Sapong backup at the no. 9 spot to a fixture on the wing. The kid hustles every minute he spends on the field and if we reset the season today, he'd be a dark horse pick for rookie of the year. Heck, he's only three assists away from tying the league record for a rookie! We don't talk about him enough, and that might make him a great under the radar play in your daily lineups.
We're always working with small sample sizes in Major League Soccer thanks to the incredible fluctuations in team form from month to month and even week to week. New England and D.C. United are drastically improved from their late summer form, while the formerly league-leading Colorado Rapids have won just three games in three months. Heading into this game week, some teams have fallen out of playoff contention (Columbus) and others truly have their backs against the wall (New England). Others are fighting for a first-round bye or even the Supporters Shield (New York, Los Angeles, Colorado, Dallas). It's up to us to determine how we think the unmotivated teams will come out and play. It's also up to us to weigh a team's desperation against its actual quality of late.
MATCHES (EDT)
7:00 p.m: Philadelphia Union at New York Red Bulls
7:30 p.m.: Chicago Fire at Columbus Crew
7:30 p.m: Sporting Kansas City at New England Revolution
7:30 p.m: D.C. United at Toronto FC
9:00 p.m: Portland Timbers at Colorado Rapids
9:00 p.m: Los Angeles Galaxy at FC Dallas
10:30 p.m: Real Salt Lake at San Jose Earthquakes
ODDS REPORT
EXPECTED CORNER TAKERS
Philadelphia Union: Tranquillo Barnetta, Alejandro Bedoya,
New York Red Bulls: Sacha Kljestan
Chicago Fire: Arturo Alvarez
Columbus Crew: Mohammed Saeid
Sporting KC: Brad Davis, Benny Feilhaber
D.C. United: Lloyd Sam
Toronto FC: Michael Bradley, Sebastian Giovinco
Portland Timbers: Jack Jewsbury, Diego Valeri
Colorado Rapids: Shkelzen Gashi
Los Angeles Galaxy: Steven Gerrard, Giovani Dos Santos
FC Dallas: Mauro Diaz, Mauro Rosales
Real Salt Lake: Joao Plata, Javier Morales
San Jose Earthquakes: Alberto Quintero, Simon Dawkins
PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
GOALKEEPER
Nick Rimando, RSL at SJE: If you're paying more than $4,000 for a goalkeeper on DraftKings, you're doing it wrong, or at least only doing it for a differential, which I can get behind. There are a handful of keepers playing on the road that just make too much sense to take a calculated chance on, my favorite of which are Rimando, Jake Gleeson, Bill Hamid and Sean Johnson. Rimando gets an ideal matchup with an all-but-eliminated San Jose Earthquakes side that hasn't won a match since August 12! They have three goals in their past six matches. Real Salt Lake are in the best defensive form of their season, with just six goals allowed in their past six games. A knock against Rimando is that he isn't facing a barrage of shots, and thus giving up save points. However, San Jose could very well abandon their defense-first, or rather defense-only, approach now that their season is lost. Give the fans something to cheer about! Give Rimando some shots to save! Everything sets up to make Rimando a great cash game play, and I wouldn't hesitate to send him out in tournaments either since plenty of people still gravitate towards the keepers playing at home.
Bill Hamid, DCU at TOR: Toronto FC have tied three straight home matches, while D.C. United have four wins and two draws in their last six. I don't think this matchup is nearly as lopsided as the odds suggest, which makes me willing to buy a dirt-cheap Hamid. United need to keep earning points with New England four points back for the final playoff spot and Orlando City five behind. Toronto will be motivated too, but perhaps less so. Sebastian Giovinco is poised to return, likely from the bench rather than as a starter, but more shots from Seba could as easily mean more saves for Hamid. Remember, all it takes to negate the points from a goal against is one save. Given the keeper scoring, picking the right one can sometimes feel like you're playing roulette, so why not take one of the most talented ones in the league at one of the lowest prices?
DEFENDER
Alvas Powell, POR at COL: For a couple of months the upper tier of DraftKings defenders has been more consistent than we are used to. Players like Taylor Kemp, Justin Morrow, Fabinho and Harrison Afful have rarely let us down lately. Another to add that list is Powell, who is tallying stats across the board and giving Portland a dimension that they severely lacked during his absence earlier this season. In what is nearly a must-win match for Portland, I'm not at all concerned about the Rapids lone goal allowed in their past six home fixtures. With either Ned Grabavoy or Jack Barmby set to be forced into action in place of the injured Darren Mattocks and Lucas Melano, the Timbers will need Powell to push forward even more than usual. Alongside talents like Diego Valeri, Fanendo Adi and Darlington Nagbe, that extra attacking activity could prove very fruitful for Powell.
Kemar Lawrence, NYR v. PHI: By nearly all accounts, Lawrence has had an incredibly poor season. With a prolonged injury absence sandwiched between two poor streaks of play, I'd understand if you wrote Lawrence off until 2017. But with some glimmers of hope in his recent play, and a matchup where the Red Bulls are heavily favored, I'm considering him this week in the middle tier of defender prices. The Red Bulls haven't lost in 13 straight MLS matches thanks to a defense that is finally finding its footing. Lawrence has been a recent part of that, and is their most dangerous fullback in terms of getting forward. He can be their poor man's Alvas Powell, and they should try to get him firing on all cylinders as the postseason approaches. Without a ton of defenders that stand out in this price range, this is the week I'm willing to give Lawrence another chance in some lineups.
Brandon Vincent, CHI at CLB: In the lone match of the week featuring two non-playoff teams, I imagine Chicago will give their bright young rookie a full 90 minutes. Columbus will be let down by missing the postseason just a year removed from hosting the MLS Cup, and Chicago could very well take advantage. Columbus have allowed 10 goals in their prior six home matches, while Chicago have scored seven in the same amount of road games. Vincent hasn't quite put together an all-around dominant fantasy performance yet this season, but he's shown aptitude at each of the individual things we look for. If he ticks a couple of the boxes at a cheap price, we'll get our value back. If he finally puts it all together in Columbus, we could have the week's best defender.
MIDFIELDER
Sacha Kljestan, NYR v. PHI: The average points column in DraftKings contests can be incredibly deceiving. Of the top seven midfielders, Mauro Diaz and Kljestan have the lowest average points number. Guess who I think this slate's two best midfield plays are! Recency bias reigns in the DraftKings pricing, with Shkelzen Gashi, Diego Valeri and Giovani Dos Santos all having healthy scoring totals lately. All three are more expensive but have worse matchups. Diaz and Kljestan are at home and are the only two of the bunch on teams with an expected goal total of at least 1.8. If I have to pick between the two, I lean towards Kljestan, who doesn't face the Bruce Arena-coached Galaxy. Philadelphia have given the Red Bulls fits in the second half of matches this season, but that just makes me favor a surging New York team more. They're sick of letting their foot off the pedal against the Union and will want to get the monkey off of their back in case they meet them in the playoffs. Kljestan pulls the strings with seven crosses in each of their past three matches, and I'd feel comfortable making him one of the centerpieces of my lineups.
Justin Meram, CLB v. CHI: The box score doesn't show it, but Meram was flying around the field in the Crew's nil-nil draw with D.C. United on Wednesday night. Given that he was substituted in the 65th minute, I expect him to get another run in front of the home crowd this weekend. Meram will likely be lower owned than other players in his price range like Chris Pontius, Lee Nguyen and Michael Bradley, but he has more upside than all of them this week. His fantasy scores of late aren't promising, but few midfielders in this tier tick all the boxes like Meram does. With Columbus out of the playoff picture, they should let Meram attack at will alongside Ethan Finlay and Ola Kamara. This group is still capable of scoring in bunches and Chicago are typically the team to do it against.
Alejandro Bedoya, PHI at NYR: This pick really rests on the status of Tranquillo Barnetta. Should Barnetta be held out again with a knee issue, Bedoya will likely be the beneficiary of increased attacking responsibilities. With Barnetta out last match, Bedoya scored a goal and tallied five crosses in Toronto. This week's match against the Red Bulls is tougher, but not by much, and Philadelphia have only been held scoreless in one of their past six road games. Bedoya's ownership levels may be low, too, given Red Bulls midfielder Daniel Royer is $300 cheaper and also scored last match. I likely lean Royer in cash games, but Bedoya could be the GPP gem we search for each week.
FORWARD
Dom Dwyer, SKC at NER: Dwyer led off our forward picks last week and I'm inclined to keep rolling with him. While I'm somewhat concerned with missing out on Bradley Wright-Phillips, who is one goal behind David Villa for the Golden Boot, and I'm tempted by Robbie Keane, who scored twice last match, it feels like Dwyer is the best value of the bunch. Sporting have a fragile hold on the fifth playoff spot, with both Seattle and Portland right behind them. While New England have been much better of late, and Kansas City are bottom of the league in road goals scored, Dwyer and company should be able to overcome those narratives and steal a result in Foxborough. In his past six matches, Dwyer has failed to reach a combined seven fouls drawn and shots taken just once. That's the consistency we want in a top priced forward to go with certain goal-scoring potential. An argument can easily be made for anyone between the $9,500 Jozy Altidore and $8,500 Fanendo Adi, but Dwyer makes a case for both the best matchup and form of the bunch.
Juan Agudelo, NER v. SKC: Agudelo is exactly the type of forward we hope to find late in the season. He has potential but spent much of the season without consistent minutes or chances. He is in form, but not overwhelmingly so, keeping his price down. Since forcing his way into the lineup, he has two goals and two assists in four appearances of at least 70 minutes. Peripheral points aren't plentiful, but that production has still amounted to a 13-point average overall and 19-point average at home. Agudelo's performance makes paying $2,800 more for Kei Kamara a hard pill to swallow, and on a week when we can likely only fit three top attacking options, he could be a necessary pick to fill out the roster with affordable scoring potential.
Fabian Herbers, PHI at NYR: I didn't come into this piece looking to write up two Union players as they head into a road match where their opponent is heavily favored, but the truth is that Herbers has a brighter outlook than anyone within $1,000 of him. Chicago forwards Luis Solignac and Michael de Leeuw are total tossups. Dominique Badji and Jacob Peterson are just dart throws. There's a clever rhyme out there somewhere about Mike Grella being relegated to the bench. Plainly speaking, Henok Goitom plays for San Jose! But Herbers? He has an assist in each of his past three matches. He has at least two shots in five of his past six games. He's effectively made his way from a clear C.J. Sapong backup at the no. 9 spot to a fixture on the wing. The kid hustles every minute he spends on the field and if we reset the season today, he'd be a dark horse pick for rookie of the year. Heck, he's only three assists away from tying the league record for a rookie! We don't talk about him enough, and that might make him a great under the radar play in your daily lineups.
