This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (EST)
- 10:00 am: Burnley vs. West Ham United
- 10:00 am: Newcastle United vs. AFC Bournemouth
- 10:00 am: Southampton vs. Everton
- 10:00 am: Tottenham Hotspur vs. Sheffield United
- 12:30 pm: Leicester City vs. Arsenal
For additional stats and odds, check out the FanDuel Fantasy Soccer: Saturday EPL Cheat Sheet.
FORWARDS/MIDFIELDERS
Tottenham are the biggest favorite, but they've taken two points from their last four league matches and drew Watford 1-1 in their last home match. Considering Sheffield United have yet to lose away and already drew at Chelsea and won at Everton, I'm not sure I'd go all in with Spurs. If you're an odds-or-bust player, a Harry Kane ($22) and Son Heung-Min ($19) stack is the way to go, but know even if Kane scores, he may not surpass 30 fantasy points. His floor is often in the single digits and Sheffield United have given up the third-fewest shots on goal this season. If you want a piece of that match, John Fleck ($11) doesn't have the same goal odds as Kane, but his floor has often been better and he's half the price. Just an idea.
Instead, I'm turning to the late match with the highest implied goal total on the slate. Leicester City have scored 12 goals and taken 13 points from five home matches. Jamie Vardy ($20) is cheaper than Kane and has seven goals in his last five starts, scoring in three of the last four at home. His floor also struggles at times as more of a goal poacher, but he's averaging 1.27 shots on goal per 90 minutes and Arsenal have allowed the third-most shots on goal. James Maddison ($18) isn't going to create eight chances again, but he'll be active on set pieces and has decent upside to go with a floor that should be more than 10 fantasy points. Arsenal are the GPP route because no one will trust them away from home, though Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($19) has the third-best odds to score, as well as a floor that's always below 10 points. If you think the Gunners will put up a fight, Alexandre Lacazette ($17) may be the better play because he usually gets back on the defensive end and creates more chances than Aubameyang. If you think this is going to be a low-scoring slate, Wilfred Ndidi ($13) is the cash play having hit double digits in all but one match this season.
The floor route may be the best way to go because you have to count on goals from all of the high-end options and that won't be easy on this slate. If you want to punt on a GPP lineup or two, West Ham's back line has struggled with Roberto Jimenez in net, and while Burnley aren't playing well, they've at least been able to score at home. The move is to stack Chris Wood ($16), Ashley Barnes ($14) and Dwight McNeil ($13) because that's who is going to make the score-sheet. The problem is that Wood has a hamstring issue and Barnes hasn't surpassed 10 fantasy points since August. McNeil and Ashley Westwood ($12) could be a decent duo because they take corners, but neither have huge upsides. But again, on a possible low-scoring slate, hitting around 15 points could be enough.
Richarlison ($18) has a somewhat relevant floor, but he's found the back of the net in one start this season and I'm not sure I want to trust Everton away where they have one point from five matches. But similar to Burnley, the Toffees are a reasonable stack given Southampton's propensity to allow goals, highlighted by the nine allowed to Leicester. Either way, Gylfi Sigurdsson ($17) won't be in my cash lineups because while he may start again, he's been removed from most set pieces. If you like Richarlison but don't want to waste money on Sigurdsson, Alex Iwobi ($13) has been a bright spot with four shots on goal and three chances created in his last three starts. Some of the better floor plays may come from Southampton in James Ward-Prowse ($17) and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg ($12). Ward-Prowse accrues defensive stats as well as takes the majority of set pieces, which has led to a floor of at least 16 points in his last three starts. Hojbjerg doesn't have the same upside and played as a left-back last match, but when in the midfield, he's created chances in favorable situations.
I'd be tentative with Bournemouth, who have failed to score in their last three away matches in all competitions. On the other side, Isaac Hayden ($15) is a floor play for defensive stats, and while Joelinton ($14) is most likely to score, he's not a cash play. You're better off banking on created chances from Jonjo Shelvey ($13), as he'll be on the majority of set pieces with Sean Longstaff suspended. I also have the feeling Allan Saint-Maximin ($12) will bust loose in one of these matches after getting three shots on goal last weekend. Robert Snodgrass ($14) is relevant again because he's taken 15 corners and scored in each of the last two matches. I'm sure that production will end at some point, but he's a worthy cash play as a cheap set-piece taker.
DEFENDERS
Lucas Digne ($15) is a reasonable route due to the lack of solid floors for expensive forwards. He's creating 2.50 chances per 90 minutes and has 12 tackles in his last three starts, though I'm not sure how much defensive action Southampton will force. Jan Bednarek ($13) is the better floor play because he's cheaper and Everton have forced the third-most tackles and fourth-most clearances.
For cheap, Jack Stephens ($9) is a steal if he gets another start after racking up 15 clearances last match. Otherwise, the value options are fairly limited if you want at least 10 fantasy points. Enda Stevens ($10) has at least 11.5 fantasy points in his last six starts and Tottenham have forced the most tackles and third-most clearances. John Egan ($12) and Chris Basham ($11) are slightly safer because they accrue more of each of those stats as central defenders, while Stevens has more upside. Jetro Willems ($12) is another upside play if you're backing Newcastle, as he's made the score-sheet in three of his last seven starts.
GOALKEEPER
The odds don't show it, but Martin Dubravka ($10) should be the easy play on this slate. He's made 17 saves in his last four matches and Bournemouth have failed to score in three of their last four. I'd be surprised if Newcastle lost this match having taken points in each of their last four at home. Kasper Schmeichel ($15) has been awesome in fantasy and deserves the max price, though I don't know about backing him for a clean sheet against Arsenal. Paulo Gazzaniga ($14) will get more attention because of matchup, but his lack of saves is hard to trust in cash games. If you're fading Tottenham, Dean Henderson ($11) is a logical route and someone who could rack up saves. You can't guarantee saves from Nick Pope ($10) and Alex McCarthy ($8), but both are at home.
