This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (EDT)
- 11:00 am: Arsenal vs. Watford
- 11:00 am: Burnley vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
- 11:00 am: Chelsea vs. Wolverhampton
- 11:00 am: Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham Hotspur
- 11:00 am: Everton vs. AFC Bournemouth
- 11:00 am: Leicester City vs. Manchester United
- 11:00 am: Manchester City vs. Norwich City
- 11:00 am: Newcastle United vs. Liverpool
- 11:00 am: Southampton vs. Sheffield United
- 11:00 am: West Ham United vs. Aston Villa
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
THE CHALK
Kevin De Bruyne, MCI v. NOR ($10,700): A 10-game slate is significantly bigger than we're used to seeing in soccer, and there are a plethora of players who are slightly under-priced for their matchups at each position and salary level. As a result, there aren't likely to be many players who are very highly owned, in cash games and GPPs, that necessitate having to play or to fade. That being said, Manchester City are gigantic favorites (-1667 on DraftKings Sportsbook) at home against Norwich City, who have already clinched relegation and will be without their best player, who is suspended. De Bruyne is their primary set-piece taker, which has contributed to him being the highest-scoring fantasy player in the league, including the most floor points. Rotation is always possible because Manchester City still have Champions League matches to play, so there should be an expectation that De Bruyne does not play 90 minutes, but against Norwich City it might not matter. Given how much they are expected to win, and score, there are likely to be plenty of Manchester City stacks in GPPs, and De Bruyne is likely to be a part of them.
FORWARDS
Gabriel Jesus, MCI v. NOR ($7,800): Jesus leads the line for the team that has by far the highest implied goal total, and yet there are 12 forwards who are more expensive. Jesus' floor is fully dependent on shots and maybe some chances created, so while he doesn't profile as a standard cash-game option, his goal upside in a match that should have goals in it puts him there, especially at his price. Riyad Mahrez ($8,100) is the safer floor option, and he still has better than 50 percent odds to score based on the bookmaker odds, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him closely owned as well. Meanwhile, Raheem Sterling ($10,300) is the most expensive player at the position and likely to be lower-owned because of the salary difference between him and Mahrez or Jesus.
Callum Wilson, BOU at EVE ($4,600): Bournemouth is one of a smattering of teams that still have something to play for, and they come into this match with Everton in a must-win situation if they want to avoid relegation (safety isn't even guaranteed with a win, but relegation is certain if they don't). Wilson has been pretty awful this season, but his salary is quite low for a player with better goal odds than guys like Olivier Giroud ($7,000), Jamie Vardy ($7,700), Anthony Martial ($7,900), Marcus Rashford ($7,400) or Roberto Firmino ($6,000), enough so that you could make a case for him in cash games because of the ability to spend up at other positions. Consideration for Wilson should also open the door for Joshua King ($4,300), but you have to know that they are unlikely to provide enough fantasy points if they don't bag a goal because scores are likely to be high on this 10-game slate. And speaking of those players, Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($5,900) on the other side of Wilson's game looks very appealing based on his goal odds, which are bettered by only Jesus, Sterling, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($8,200), Mohamed Salah ($9,200), Harry Kane ($9,400), Sadio Mane ($8,500), Danny Ings ($8,400) and Mahrez, which seems like a long list until you consider the company and his price.
MIDFIELDERS
Jack Grealish, AVL at WHU ($8,600): Aston Villa need a win to guarantee they stay in the Premier League, and while they could theoretically not get relegated even if they lose, depending on two other teams losing is not a good idea. Grealish is by far their best player, and while he doesn't take many set pieces, he's still a significant fantasy-point scorer thanks to crosses, shots, shots assisted and fouls drawn. He has one of the highest floors on the slate and is in a must-win game, which could have some fantasy players going to Grealish instead of De Bruyne (though many will play both). Grealish doesn't get on the score-sheet a ton, so you could theoretically question his upside for GPPs, but his floor is strong enough that he could score a goal's worth of points even without actually hitting the back of the net. Teammate John McGinn ($5,000) is another strong play, and while playing two Aston Villa players on a 20-team slate feels a bit crazy, they have absolutely everything to play for while other teams have nothing. Playing Grealish and/or De Bruyne likely takes you away from Bruno Fernandes ($8,900) and James Ward-Prowse ($8,200), two normally very good floor options, but they fall behind the former two given their respective matchups or game situations.
Ashley Westwood, BUR v. BHA ($4,800): Westwood is the cheapest member of the group of boring set-piece-taking midfielders who we always consider for cash games but never really do enough for GPPs unless they pick up assists. Burnley and Brighton have nothing to play for, so while you could theoretically make the argument that this could be an open game, Burnley just don't usually play that way. Then again, it's tough to make strong arguments for the other guys in the range, such as Oliver Norwood ($5,200) away to Southampton, Aaron Mooy ($5,100) away to Burnley, Joao Moutinho ($5,100) away to Chelsea or Giovani Lo Celso ($5,100) away to Crystal Palace. If you really want to focus on motivations, then you have to compare these guys to Aston Villa's McGinn, or at least pay a little less for West Ham's Mark Noble ($4,400), though he's playing against a team that has everything to lose (Villa). Going further down brings you to guys like Will Hughes ($4,000) or Tom Cleverley ($3,300), as Watford need a win to ensure safety, but they're always going to be more floor plays than ceiling ones.
DEFENDERS
Diego Rico, BOU at EVE ($5,900): Bournemouth need to win and Rico has been taking a majority of their set pieces recently, which makes him the most attractive upper-tier defender on a slate that also includes guys like Trent Alexander-Arnold ($7,700), Lucas Digne ($7,000), Andrew Robertson ($6,200), Marcos Alonso ($5,500) and Serge Aurier ($5,100). Any of those players can have big games, but motivation is a big question for all of them except Alonso, who might actually have to do some defending against Wolves. Rico's spot in the starting XI isn't guaranteed because Adam Smith ($3,000) could return from his concussion, but it's important to note that Smith won't get nearly the attacking opportunities Rico does, mostly because he doesn't ever take set pieces, so don't think you're getting some kind of bargain with Smith. If Rico is on the bench, you could pivot to another of the more expensive defenders, but it's probably worth it to just pay down and use the funds for better forwards or midfielders.
Ezri Konsa, AVL at WHU ($3,600): Konsa has played center-back recently, but he could move back out wide for the season finale, making him a potential bargain because of his crossing upside. Again, Villa have to win to ensure safety, so you can expect them to be on the front foot against West Ham, who have been decent defensively this season but shouldn't be feared in a must-win game. And given that it's the last slate of the season, we could also see a number of potential value plays open up as teams give their kids run-outs with little on the line, so definitely pay attention to lineups when they are released to see if any of those opportunities arise.
GOALKEEPER
Vicente Guaita, CRY v. TOT ($3,900): Guaita allowed multiple goals in each of his last five games, and this match against Tottenham means nothing, but he's still likely to be popular because he's at home and not facing Manchester City or Liverpool. The case for Guaita works just as well for Martin Dubravka ($3,800) in that they're likely to see plenty of shots but many people aren't likely to have a lot (or any) Tottenham or Liverpool attackers because they are loading up on Manchester City or Aston Villa (yeah, I said it). With 20 goalkeepers to choose from, paying all the way up doesn't seem like the optimal build this week, especially with attackers at reasonable, though not overly cheap, salaries.
