DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: SC Freiburg v. Borussia Monchengladbach Showdown Preview

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DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: SC Freiburg v. Borussia Monchengladbach 

Showdown Cheat Sheet

Despite sitting only four places below in the table, SC Freiburg are +335 (DraftKings Sportsbook) underdogs at home against Borussia Monchengladbach (-136) on Friday. Freiburg's attack has mostly been stagnant since the league restart, scoring four goals in four games, including three against Eintracht Frankfurt while being shut out at home by Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen. Meanwhile, Gladbach had eight goals in their four games, including three away to Eintracht Frankfurt and four at home against Union Berlin (they scored one against Leverkusen and were shut out by Bremen). The game total isn't overly high, but we're still at -162 for over 2.5 goals and +155 for over 3.5.

Neither team is overly prolific when it comes to fantasy points scored, as Freiburg rank 10th in shots, 10th in shots on goal, 11th in chances created and sixth in crosses while Monchengladbach are sixth, third, seventh and 12th, respectively.

The guys we want from Freiburg are Vincenzo Grifo ($9,400) and Christian Gunter ($7,200), who take a vast majority of their set pieces and are generally their most potent attackers. Gunter's 242 crosses this season are the second-most in the league, trailing only Filip Kostic, and he trails only Christopher Nkunku, Thomas Muller and Kostic in chances created; that's pretty good company, especially for a defender. Given his significantly cheaper price than Grifo and the top Gladbach players, Gunter could be a popular captain play, at least in cash games, even with Freiburg a decent underdog. A Grifo captain seems to only make sense if you think Freiburg win, mostly because of the salary; if anything, people are going to use a higher-priced player at captain from Gladbach.

After that, I think you can make the case that everyone else is the same. Sure, Lucas Holer ($6,400), Roland Sallai ($6,000) and Jonathan Schmid ($5,600) are good contributors in the right matchups, but they don't offer a whole lot as big underdogs. My expectation is that there will be plenty of 4:2 lineup builds in favor of Gladbach, with most specifically choosing Grifo and Gunter as they're exposure to Freiburg. It's just tough for me to see a path to a viable lineup with multiple Freiburg players that doesn't include Gunter, and you don't get enough salary relief with Gunter and two of Holer, Sallai and Schmid.

Going lower actually brings you to the Freiburg goal scorers, with Nils Petersen ($4,600) having the highest anytime goal scorer odds for the team at +235. It's possible we get Luca Waldschmidt ($5,200) up front, but that situation is simply making us pay more for a guy with worse goal odds (+265).

The Gladbach side isn't as easy, as none of their players have overly reliable floors. Their set-piece situation is pretty boring, with defensive midfielder Jonas Hofmann ($7,400) averaging only 4.23 crosses, 1.51 chances created and 0.98 shots per 90 minutes this season. Lars Stindl ($8,400) took two free kicks in their last game, but he averages just 0.89 crosses and 1.52 chances created per 90. At the very least, he leads the team with 0.54 goals per 90 minutes, but he also has just six goals in 22 appearances (1,008 minutes). The two other guys who could be in play for set pieces, depending on lineups, are Oscar Wendt ($6,200) and Florian Neuhaus ($7,800), the former of whom could be popular in cash games because he has a somewhat reliable floor and is relatively cheap.

Then again, this all gets thrown out the window if Laszlo Benes ($5,800) gets a rare stat. Benes takes some set pieces when he's on, and while he's only played 848 minutes this season, he leads the team with 5.63 crosses and 2.65 chances created per 90. And if he's expectedly on the bench, you can stay in the price range for right-back Stefan Lainer ($5,400), who actually leads the team in total crosses (92) and is second in chances created (31). And I guess we can't forget about Ramy Bensebaini ($7,000), who is really only priced where he is because he is their primary penalty taker.

Otherwise, you're paying up for two players who have been popular in cash games lately but not really because of their floors: Alassane Plea ($10,600) and Marcus Thuram ($10,200). Their floors are basically tied to their shots and chances created, which isn't necessarily a bad thing but they aren't nearly high enough given their salaries; they have to get on the score-sheet to make it work, even against a Freiburg side that's allowed the most shots, second-most shots on goal and most chances created in the Bundesliga this season. On the plus side, Plea has two goals on 12 shots (six on goal) and three assists on five chances created in the past four games, including a goal and two assists last weekend, while Thuram has four goals on nine shots (all nine on goal) since the restart. Additionally, they are each +140 to score, which is the highest in the game. Playing both isn't out the question, though it likely takes you out of being able to roster some of the Gladbach set pieces; then again, if they both get on the score-sheet then the set pieces probably don't matter. You could put Patrick Herrmann ($9,000) in the group of players who have to get on the score-sheet to pay off his salary, even though he's a solid crosser and chance creator when the lineup works out in his favor.

After that, the remaining outfield players are pretty much the same; they have relatively low floors and aren't likely to score goals, so whether they're defensive midfielders or center-backs who rarely gets forward, I don't think you're going to get an overwhelming argument for one guy over another. You fall into the "anyone who fits" mentality and just hope to get lucky, which isn't necessarily a bad thing if the guys you pay up for work out.

In terms of goalkeepers, the odds obviously favor Gladbach's Yann Sommer ($6,800), but he's facing a Freiburg side that's forced the sixth-fewest saves this season. Meanwhile, Gladbach have forced more saves than every team except Bayern Munich, Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig, which has to make Alexander Schwolow ($5,000) an option, especially after he scored 20.5 points in a 3-3 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt (fifth in saves forced) thanks to 13 saves. Then again, his last match was a dud, scoring minus-1.8 fantasy points against Leverkusen because he allowed one goal and didn't save a single shot.