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Note: this article is a guest post from DraftKings player feartheturtle7.
MATCHES (EDT)
10:00 a.m: Newcastle v. Huddersfield
10:00 a.m: Watford v. Bournemouth
10:00 a.m: West Ham v. Southampton
10:00 a.m: West Brom v. Burnley
10:00 a.m: Manchester United v. Burnley
10:00 a.m: Brighton v. Leicester City
12:30 p.m: Everton v. Manchester City
CORE CASH PLAYS
While he hasn't exactly set the world on fire from a fantasy perspective since arriving at Old Trafford, Alexis Sanchez ($9300) is in a prime spot against a Swansea squad scrapping to stay out of the relegation zone. The "best player" on the largest favorite on the slate, so really going out on a limb here, I know. However, even as CrossKings is transitioning to ShotKings, I still feel Alexis is a stronger play than Romelu Lukaku ($9,000) in cash because he has at least a strong share of set pieces, which boosts his assist equity, and in general he produces more peripheral stats (tackles won, fouls drawn, crosses) than the big Belgian striker. Depending on the XIs, this could be a week when you play multiple Red Devils in your cash lineup, as the prices on Lukaku, Juan Mata ($6,100) and Marcus Rashford ($8,400) are reasonable. Of that group, Rashford is my preferred second option due to set-share and current form, but I am sure we will see plenty of Lukaku in cash and I don't blame those who go down that path. Mata is kind of the odd man out of that group, as his upside is somewhat limited, having cracked eight fantasy points once in his last 10 Premier League matches.
Alexis comes in at a savings of $1,500 to Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne, who has a sneaky tough match away to Everton, and the Chilean is just in a better spot than the red hot and now overpriced Riyad Mahrez ($10,000). Speaking of Mahrez, I don't see him keeping up his current pace (along with paying off the associated rise in salary), and he doesn't even have close to a monopoly of set pieces, as he cedes at least half of the corners to Marc Albrighton (remember when Albrighton was like $5,200 and playable?). I don't think Mahrez is a bad play by any means, but I will likely be allocating my salary elsewhere. I think KDB is a phenomenal player and the engine that drives City on a weekly basis, but that price is a bit rich, especially with David Silva ($8,000) and Leroy Sane ($8,700) both fully healthy and featuring regularly.
While we're on this topic, I just want to point out that Manchester City Roulette is probably my least favorite new game that has come out of this season. As of now, I think a full City fade in cash is completely viable on this slate and probably my preferred approach. We could see them comfortably win 2-0 with the final 35 minutes just being a glorified training session that very lightly even involves the Fighting Rooneys. Given their prices, this City team is just a nightmare for fantasy because they do not generate peripherals, especially when they are leading, and it just becomes a chase for score points (goals and assists). Earlier in the season, they were running hotter than the sun and routinely dropping at least four goals, but things have cooled off a bit as they are more likely to work the ball incessantly, pip a goal or two, and just demoralize their opponent. Running combination pairs of Man City guys is definitely a super viable GPP-strategy (where you are more interested in upside and goals) but given the other options on the slate I would rather spend elsewhere in cash games. Also of note: City have a Champions League match against Liverpool on Wednesday, so you could see a couple of earlier-than-usual subs or possibly some light rotation.
Other players on my short list for cash consideration this week (depending on line-ups) include Matt Ritchie ($6,400), who seems to be getting some set pieces back (however, he did suffer a knock during international play), Junior Stanislas ($7,700), Chris Brunt ($6,000), Solly March ($5,300) because Anthony Knockaert is suspended, and Johann Berg Gudmundsson ($8,400), who I'll touch more on later. Also, I would not call you insane for at least looking at Wayne Rooney at $4,800 considering he basically took all of Gylfi Sigurdsson's set piece duties, but going against City is quite the uphill battle.
Touching on the defender position quickly, Jose Holebas ($5,900), even at this elevated price, is in a great spot at home versus Bournemouth. Since returning as a regular starter, he has taken 22 of 37 corners for Watford, but that share has grown even larger (10 of 13 in the last three weeks) since Tom Cleverley and Gerard Deulofeu both suffered injuries. I will likely attempt to prioritize Holebas in cash games and then pay down at the other defender spot.
VALUE PLAYS
With set-piece takers now dramatically priced up compared to previous seasons, we often have to include a nasty punt midfielder to make our lineup work. This week presents a few options, but let me start with Pierre-Emile Hojberg, who is only $3,200 after scoring 5.3, 6.0 and 10.0 fantasy points in his last three starts, respectively (all on peripherals, no score points). He is only 22 years old and a Bayern Munich youth product who also features for the Denmark national team. We aren't expecting a goal, but he actually did find the back of the net in his last game, which came against Wigan in the FA Cup, which is quite the first impression on his new boss, Mark Hughes. All things considered, you would be thrilled with six points from him on this slate, and it could be a necessity to make everything else work.
I also like Roberto Pereyra ($3,600) a bit, as has held a small share of corners over the last eight gameweeks and churns enough peripheral stats to make him a worthwhile punt consideration on this slate. Earlier in the season you would just write him in for 55-70 minutes and plan for him to be subbed, but he has actually played a full 90 in two of the last three games.
If these two don't fit the mold, you can pay up a bit more and take a shot on Jonjo Shelvey ($4,400); just don't blame me when he steps on a dude's face in the 12th minute and gets sent off.
GPP PLAYS
With GPP plays we obviously want to identify guys who have great upside for their price but will likely carry lower ownership. You don't need to build insane lineups in DFS soccer to the point where all of your guys are sub-10% owned in order to take down GPPs. Sometimes just a simple 1v1 or 2v2 off your cash lineup is enough differentiation for a decent pay day.
On the higher end, I see a lot of ownership concentrating on Lukaku, Alexis, Mahrez, and KDB, which leaves Gabriel Jesus ($9,600) sitting there with nobody to love. I make fun of Gabby plenty for being kind of a poacher in front of goal and not really a complete forward yet, but he is playing closest to goal for a solid favorite, so he has plenty of upside, likely at a fraction of the ownership. Another thing that helps his case in terms of low ownership is that his game logs on his DraftKings player page are rather uninspiring, as he hasn't cracked 10 fantasy points in Premier League play since Nov. 29. Jesus is nowhere near my cash lineup, but if I am taking shots in GPP he is squarely on my radar.
In the mid-range, my favorite GPP play is Marko Arnautovic ($7,500) at home against Southampton. He is averaging 2.50 shots, including 1.22 shots on goal, per 90 minutes this season and the matchup is solid. While he has cooled off a bit this month, I think this is a great high-upside spot for the Austrian to regain his form. You can't make the shot you don't take, so at the very least I think Arnautovic will have opportunity. In this price range, I would see more people gravitating to Junior Stanislas ($7,700), which should leave Arnautovic at under 10-12% or so in GPPs.
ONE TO WATCH
This spot was to be reserved for one situation to discuss that has an impact on the slate, but there are actually three this week that piqued my interest:
Exhibit A: Southampton have a new manager in Mark Hughes, and in his first game, an FA Cup match against Wigan, he did not start James Ward-Prowse ($7,800) nor Nathan Redmond ($5,400), which left Dusan Tadic ($5,200) to take all seven corners. If we see the same XI for this match, Tadic is likely the first guy in my lineup. However, if Ward-Prowse and Redmond start, that clouds matters and introduces some risk. Sofiane Boufal ($5,300) is another Southampton option to consider as well, if he starts.
Exhibit B:Aaron Mooy ($5,800) suffered a knock while on international duty, so he is quite questionable. If he misses out against Newcastle, that gives a bump to Tom Ince ($4,900) and Rajiv van La Parra ($5,500), while Chris Lowe ($4,400) could see a few more corners if he starts.
Exhibit C:Johann Berg Gudmundsson ($8,400) is definitely cash viable, but one of the deciding factors for me on JBG will be whether or not Chris Wood ($5,700) is in the lineup too. He has scored three times in the last two games off the bench, so I think we could possibly see him in the XI. This would be great news for all of the crossers for Burnley, as Wood's 6-foot-3 frame provides a solid target to dump in crosses versus a potentially compacted West Brom defense. The presence of Wood would bump up not only Gudmundsson, but also the fullbacks, who are quite cheap.
