This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
UCL Best Bets for Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid
Bayern Munich have seemingly turned a corner since their first match against Arsenal, which is making this semifinal a little harder to bet on. Following the win against Arsenal in the second leg, there were some in the Bayern camp wondering if Thomas Tuchel should actually remain at the club. Surrounding that 1-0 win, they've won three in a row in Bundesliga, bagging five goals at Union Berlin and mostly looking like themselves even while rotating and dealing with injuries.
It's been a little different for Real Madrid, as they've been more of a constant force, having lost just once in league play. They got past Manchester City on penalties and more impressively, they did it at the Etihad. Carlo Ancelotti rotated almost the entire squad in a 1-0 win at Real Sociedad on Friday and will have a strong team for this trip.
Real Madrid have been the better team all season, are healthier and more talented across the pitch. The question is if you want to bet their moneyline at +175 in Munich. My initial idea is to take Real Madrid double chance and under 3.5 goals for +130 odds.
On the surface, it seems like a mistake to take the under in this match. Bayern Munich tend to get into higher-scoring matches no matter where they play, though the second leg against Arsenal bucked that trend. Still, it's been a common refrain for them this season in that they'll allow goals to anyone while scoring plenty themselves.
However, I'm still not sold on Bayern having a normal Bayern-level of attack despite Harry Kane's goalscoring. They've been shut out multiple times the past couple months and outside of Kane, no one else is 100-percent healthy in the attack unless you consider Thomas Muller, who isn't expected to start. Even against Arsenal, they needed two defensive mistakes to score in the first leg and then Joshua Kimmich rightfully got the winner in the second leg. Kane, who has 35 goals in Bundesliga, had just one shot on target from four shots and that was a penalty.
Real Madrid may be the only defensive group that can contend with Arsenal in Europe and their versatility is what frustrated City last round. Antonio Rudiger has faced Kane plenty in his career, while Aurelien Tchouameni is an incredibly active center-back even if it's not his preferred position.
Bayern were on the front foot a lot of the Arsenal match and they may do that again, but I think Real Madrid are a little more familiar with the moment and won't falter under pressure. There's a chance this match is a crazy 2-2 or 3-3 back-and-forth thriller, especially given what happened last round, but if that doesn't happen, I think Bayern will struggle to score.
Real Madrid will let them play with possession and then pounce with Vinicius Junior and company when the moment is right.
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Betting on Corners
Real Madrid don't care about possession and racking up corners, so I'm riding the home side with this bet. Bayern will ride their home fans throughout the match and similar to that Arsenal second leg, I think they should be in plenty favorable spots for corners. I like Bayern -.25 corners in the first half at -120 and -.75 -115 for the entire match is fine in this situation. I usually like betting first-half corners in a league match, but assuming Bayern don't go up three goals, they won't change their style of play too much in the first leg.
If you want plus odds, Bayern race to five corners is +100.
Betting on Shots
There aren't too many numbers I like for betting shots since I don't think the numbers will be overly high. Real Madrid aren't much of a volume-shooting side, so their odds seem off on almost every player given the matchup.
If you really want to bet shots, I think Jamal Musiala is the best place to look for value at roughly -140 to have at least two shots, if he starts. Comparatively, Leroy Sane is -215 and Leon Goretzka is -110 for two or more shots. However, it seems like decent value if Raphael Guerreiro starts in the front four again, as he's +240 to have at least two shots.
Single-Game Parlays
If you like my theories above, I put together a simple single-game parlay at roughly +600 odds. Of course, you can easily get that above +1000 if you tweak a few of the numbers or add another shot bet.
Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid Betting Picks
- Real Madrid to win +175
- SGP: Real Madrid double chance + under 3.5 goals = +130
- Bayern Munich race to 5 corners +100
- SGP: Real Madrid double chance + under 3.5 goals + Bayern over 4.5 corners + Musiala to have 2+ shots + Guerreiro to have 1+ shot = +608
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