This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It felt like the Premier League just ended (because it did), but it returns Sept. 12, less than two weeks away. The hard part will be analyzing what short rest means for these teams, especially those that don't use a ton of depth. Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp already said he plans to switch things up more than last season because of the quick turnaround.
That will be the case for a lot of teams, and if they don't switch things up, injuries are more likely to occur. That doesn't mean you should try and guess which teams will be most affected by the weird schedule, but maybe don't be surprised when Newcastle finish in the top 10 or Tottenham fall outside of it (those aren't my predictions). Then again, it's a weird season for everyone, so maybe nothing will change in the end?
While you can get decent odds for Chelsea (+1200) and Manchester United (+1200) to win the Premier League, you also have to take into account how deep Manchester City are, which is why they're favored. Given the odds, I'd rather look elsewhere in the table for value.
The most value can be found in Burnley (+500 to finish top 10), the team no one wants to bet on because of their style of play. Fortunately, Burnley can finish in the top 10 even if they're not the best team to watch, which is what happened last season. Burnley finished 10th in the table with an ugly minus-7 goal differential, but hey were just eight points behind Leicester City, level with Sheffield United and two points ahead of Southampton.
Leicester are included because they are a prime candidate to drop off, though I don't think getting them at +190 to not finish in the top 10 is worth a play. Either way, Jamie Vardy is another year older (33), they lost Ben Chilwell to Chelsea and Ricardo Pereira will open the season injured.
Sheffield United over-performed last season and still finished with the same number of points (54) as Burnley. The outliers in this spot are Southampton and Leeds United, who are both +160 to finish in the top 10. Again, Southampton had two fewer points than Burnley last season.
Dive into the numbers and Burnley's goal differential is inflated because of all the goals they gave up to top teams. They conceded nine of their 50 goals to Manchester City, seven to Chelsea and five to Tottenham in one match. So in five of 38 matches, Burnley gave up 21 of their 50 goals allowed. For the other 33 matches, they gave up 29 goals, or 0.85 goals per match.
This season, their team is pretty much the same except they'll hopefully be healthier. Top forward Chris Wood missed the majority of the final two months, while Ashley Barnes, who had 12 goals in 2018/19, made 19 appearances all season. The same goes for midfielder Johann Berg Gudmundsson, who made 12 appearances last season after combining for 64 the prior two campaigns. If their top forwards can be fit even slightly more, that will only add depth, making +500 to finish in the top 10 again a smart play.
On the other end of that, I think Fulham are the worst team and you can either take them at +100 to be relegated or +325 to finish bottom of the table. The only reason they didn't finish bottom two seasons ago was because Huddersfield had a historically bad campaign en route to 16 points. In that season, Fulham allowed 81 goals, five more than anyone else. Last season, Fulham gave up 48 goals and had a plus-16 goal differential in the Championship. In comparison, West Brom and Leeds United had goal differentials of plus-32 and plus-42, respectively.
The only reason Fulham are in this spot is because Neeskens Kebano scored in stoppage time against Cardiff City in their first play-off and then Joe Bryan scored a brace in extra time of their match against Brentford. Aleksandar Mitrovic is a monster in front of net, but there's a reason he had 11 goals in 37 starts two seasons ago. The Premier League is a different level, and he won't be near last season's 26 goals scored.
Unfortunately, I'm not keen on much else given the -118 odds of most over/under bets at DraftKings unless you want to take Wolverhampton (+250) or Everton (+500) to finish Top 6. Even then, it's hard to see Wolves performing better than last season and Everton making a huge jump with a similar roster.
Otherwise, the scoring odds for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang stand out a bit as he's +110 to score more than 19 goals. Maybe some of that has to do with his contract situation at Arsenal, but the numbers point to at least 20 goals again. He's scored 22 in each of the last two seasons and improved play under Mikel Arteta could be helpful to the Gunners in general. The addition of Willian is another boost after he accrued 20 assists over the last three seasons at Chelsea.
You could go into the season with tons of futures at terrible odds, go 15-15 on your picks and lose money, or make a few bets on the most valuable plays, go 3-0 and win money. I prefer the latter.
