This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
After being up more than $2,000 a couple months into the season, sitting around even is a bit disappointing, but at least I'm not in the negative. Yet. Last week was another article I wrote too early because I wouldn't have bet the West Ham under if I saw their starting center-backs ahead of time (an injured Kurt Zouma and Aaron Cresswell).
While there are only three gameweeks left, there is one team with only two matches remaining (Manchester United) and more than half the league have at least four matches to go. That doesn't mean anything in terms of betting, but a few of these teams won't get a break over the final three weeks.
Record: 83-85-7. Up $339 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
I was originally on Chelsea -1, but the odds aren't good enough, so I'm switching to the total. Chelsea are controlling games, but they're struggling to hit the back of the net again and have just two goals in their last three. Wolves have failed to score in their last three and their style of play always seems to be a problem for Chelsea, at least this version. These teams combined for 12 shots and 1.35 expected goals back in December and each of their last two meetings have been scoreless. Instead of hoping Chelsea can find a couple goals or get a clean sheet, I'll take under 2.5 goals at -110.
Funny enough, I'm more confident in Crystal Palace scoring multiple goals than Chelsea, which could easily backfire. It backfired in Palace's last home match in which they drew scoreless against Leeds, something I'm hoping doesn't happen again. However, I think this is a perfect spot for another home win for Palace, who stole one late at Southampton last weekend. Meanwhile, Watford let one slip away against Burnley and are destined to be relegated. Palace won this matchup 4-1 with only seven shots in February and I feel like a similar four goals is possible. I think Palace -2.5 at +550 is worth a look, but I'll take the safe route of Palace -1 at +115 and as seen in that prior meeting, Roy Hodgson facing his former team doesn't mean anything.
Manchester United only have two matches left, which means there are only two more chances to bet against them. That maybe didn't work Monday when they thrashed Brentford, but it was the last Old Trafford match for many players, including Juan Mata, who provided a bit of a spark in a rare spot. However, they've been poor away from home this season, winning just six of 17 trips and they sort of acted like the season was over after beating Brentford. The only bad thing about taking Brighton +185 to win is that they've been worse at home than away this season, winning just three of 17 matches. That's a worrying stat, but I think their ball possession will be key in this matchup against a team that maybe wants the season to end.
Tottenham found their scoring boots last game and I expect this matchup to be up and down unless Liverpool put their clamps on in a 3-0 win. There have been four goals scored in each of the last two meetings between these sides and I like that to happen again. Both teams are deadly on the counter and there should be plenty of chances for both sides. Another way this doesn't hit is if Antonio Conte wants to play things tight and not be at risk of allowing three-plus goals. That's possible, but I'd be surprised if this turned into a defensive battle with few chances. The last time Tottenham played a top side away, they lost 3-2 at Manchester United. I'll bank on both team's desire to win and both team's scoring form to go with over 3.5 goals at +135.
In a completely different matchup, I'm going the opposite route between Manchester City and Newcastle. I'm slightly wary because Man City are at home, but they'll likely rotate a few players and they have been fine with simple 2-0 wins in the past. Newcastle did their best to limit Liverpool last weekend in a 1-0 loss and will try to replicate that performance, at least on the scoreboard. In that match, Newcastle managed just four shots compared to 24 for Liverpool. They've been excellent at limiting good opportunities the past few months and I think that'll be enough to keep this match lower scoring, so it's under 2.5 goals at +170 for me.
