This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
I stand by everything I said last week even though nothing worked. Bayern Munich, Borussia Monchengladbach and RB Leipzig all drew their matches. Bayer Leverkusen almost fell prey to a draw at Arminia Bielefeld, but they got a late goal to steal three points. Backing favorites doesn't always work and it seems like doing so immediately after the international break is not the way to go. Fortunately, I still managed to hit one parlay.
LAST GAMEWEEK
I went heavy on the parlays last week and given all of the favorites who failed to win, it didn't end well outside of the one in which I backed no top-five teams. The weirdest thing about last gameweek was that no home team secured three points, with all five wins going to away sides. Some of that had to do with away favorites, but Mainz and Union Berlin weren't expected to win their matches away from home. Either way, I'm not sure the last set of matches taught us anything outside of there being no home-field advantage in the Bundesliga, which was already known.
THE WEEK AHEAD
In the opposite mold of last week, most of the top teams are at home and in pretty favorable spots. Bayern are the lone away favorite at -335 to beat Stuttgart. That seems like a free parlay piece, but Stuttgart have burned me before. I'd rather go with over 3.5 goals at -143 because Stuttgart are the opposite of Werder Bremen in that their defense isn't as good and they want to score. There have been 10 goals scored in Stuttgart's two matches and Bayern always seem to bounce back from a bad performance, even coming off a midweek match. The other play is Bayern over 2.5 goals at -139 if you're worried it'll be a 3-0 win.
Werder Bremen have drawn their last five matches 1-1, which means it's probably not a good idea to take Wolfsburg to win at -132. Instead, it's a great spot to test your luck on a Bundesliga under because under 2.5 goals is +108. Wolfsburg have allowed five goals all season, while Werder have conceded 10. In a matchup between two of the most defensive sides in the league, I'll bank on a 1-0 or 1-1 result. A 1-0 Wolfsburg win gets you +700 and a 1-1 draw is +600. Go crazy.
Union Berlin have been one of my favorite teams to bet in recent weeks, but I'm going against them in what should be a back-and-forth match. Eintracht Frankfurt got back Filip Kostic last week and I think he completes their attack which led to last week's draw against Leipzig. While I'm not picking a side, you can get Eintracht at -112 to score the first goal, which is a continuation of one of my favorite trends from last season when away teams in even matches seemed to score first more often than not. If you want a parlay piece, you can bet both teams to score at -200.
Sticking with the theme of goals, expect plenty between Mainz and Hoffenheim. Mainz got a surprising first-half hat trick last match from Jean-Philippe Mateta and more importantly, have scored nine goals in their last four matches despite sitting near the bottom of the table. Hoffenheim got Andrej Kramaric back last match and that led to a 3-3 draw. Kramaric has seven goals in four matches this season and getting him at +100 to hit the back of the net against this Mainz back line is too good to pass up. You could take over 3.5 goals at +112, but betting on Kramaric to score oddly seems safer. And for a parlay piece, both teams to score is -278.
While I'm staying away from the Bayern money line, I think you can chance parlaying the money lines of Dortmund, Leipzig and Gladbach at home against Koln, Bielefeld and Schalke, respectively. If you don't want to look, those three teams are bottom three in the table. Dortmund may have the hardest matchup, but they're cruising at the moment and it's almost guaranteed Erling Haaland will score again. Elsewhere, Bielefeld have lost their last six matches and Schalke have scored a league-low five goals. That's not going to work against Gladbach, who will have Alassane Plea back from COVID-19.
THE BETS
Wolfsburg/Werder Bremen under 2.5 goals +108
Andrej Kramaric to score +100
Eintracht Frankfurt to score first -112
Parlay: Borussia Dortmund ML -435, RB Leipzig ML -480, Monchengladbach ML -250 = +108
Parlay: Both Union and Eintracht will score (-200), Both Mainz and Hoffenheim will score (-278), Wolfsburg win/draw (-480), Leverkusen win/draw (-455) = +201
