The 12-fight card set to take place at the Apex this week features several fighters making their first trip to the Octagon. This can potentially give us a leg up on the competition, who may not have scouted these debuting fighters as closely. This week's picks include a veteran who wants nothing more than to be on the ground and a Nerd who will look to continue building towards UFC gold. Our betting line comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Caio Borralho ($8,600)
Borralho will be able to get back to his roots after a knockout of Paul Craig in his last outing, as Jared Cannonier has been taken down at least once in three of his last four fights. "The Killa Gorilla" is a slick boxer but seems to have sacrificed his finishing ability for crisp technique, given that he has recorded one knockout victory since 2019. This will allow Borralho to take his time and get the fight where he wants, even if he falls behind initially.
Francis Marshall ($8,300)
Marshall is a dynamic offense fighter who can switch seamlessly between striking and grappling, but it is a bit concerning that he was controlled and finished on the ground so effortlessly in his last bout against Isaac Dulgarian. Still, Marshall is a much crisper boxer than Dennis Buzukja and should be able to work his wrestling, as "The Great" stands upright in the pocket. The short notice may be a bit of an issue, as this fight was made official about 48 hours ago, but I expect the seasoned wrestler to be sharp in his conditioning.
Gerald Meerschaert ($7,200)
This prediction must come with the caveat that we have seen Meerschaert slept by big punchers early in fights. As long as he can avoid being caught cold, he should have a sizeable advantage over Edmen Shahbazyan on the ground, where "GM3" always looks to take his opponents. We have seen the once-hyped prospect taken down and controlled by lesser submission grapplers than Meerschaert, which makes me think that the veteran will be able to get the finish if he can survive long enough to force a few clinch exchanges.
Ryan Loder ($7,800)
Loder is a credentialed wrestler who has some power in his hands without much striking technique. Robert Valentin is similar to Paul Craig in that he uses kicks to try to close distance and work his submission game. This may be The Ultimate Fighter Finale in the middleweight division, but it still amounts to a relatively low-level scrap, which has me taking the underdog almost by default. It does seem as though Loder excels at getting to advantageous positions after achieving takedowns, which should take some of the danger out of Valentin's attacks from bottom position.
Nathan Fletcher ($8,400)
Zygimantas Ramaska is a powerful striker, but it's interesting that he has spent his last three fights (at least) competing in an organization that uses a ring instead of a cage. This could put him at a disadvantage when it comes to grappling against the fence, and Fletcher will try to get a takedown from the opening bell. We have seen from his days in Cage Warriors that Fletcher doesn't tend to slow down in fights, which squarely gives him an edge in a bout where both men will be on short notice.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Jacqueline Cavalcanti OVER 75.5 Significant Strikes, Angela Hill OVER 70.5 Significant Strikes, and Michael Morales OVER 62.5 Significant Strikes
Cavalcanti will stand across from an opponent in Josiane Nunes who will do nothing but rush forward for 15 minutes. The 26-year-old is light on her feet and will enter the bout with a six-inch height advantage, which should allow her to pepper a tough opponent with strikes and pick up a relatively clean decision victory.
Tabatha Ricci's penchant for wrestling could conceivably keep totals low here, but Hill has improved her takedown and overall grappling defense immeasurably in the past few years, and "Baby Shark" has shown she is not afraid to throw in the pocket if she cannot get a fight to the ground. If this fight does stay standing, "Overkill" will easily eclipse her number, as both competitors land over four significant strikes per minute of cage time.
Similar to our last contest, Neil Magny will look to stick to Morales like glue for as long as he can, but the undefeated fighter has amassed a 91 percent takedown defense rate and has not been controlled for longer than 2:10 in any of his five UFC bouts. Given the legendary toughness of Magny, it's likely that he will hang around to eat strikes from range when he is unable to create tieups against the cage.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Cong Wang UNDER 11.5 Minutes of Fight Time, Slava Borshchev UNDER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Zachary Reese UNDER 6.25 Minutes of Fight Time
It's not often that we'll be able to predict a finish in the lighter weight classes of women's MMA, but Wang is incredibly active with her volume and pressure, and Victoria Leonardo tends to stand squarely in front of her opponents. This will lead to the debutante overwhelming her opponent, which should result in a victory before Round 3 begins.
It has been a while since Borshchev hasn't had to contend with a grappler. This time, he will face a particularly active striker in James Llontop, who will swing wildly from range in the hopes of landing a knockout blow. Borshchev is a much more methodical power striker, but whoever gets the upper hand should end this bout well before our time expires.
Reese seems to be the same stationary, upright fighter who was knocked down almost immediately in his fight on the Contender Series. He now faces an opponent in Jose Medina who looks to pile on offense and is not afraid to stand in boxing range to trade shots. Neither man in this bout has shown much of a concern regarding defense, meaning this fight could be over in the blink of an eye.
Bets to Consider
Kaan Ofli (+165)
Ofli can brawl a bit too much for his own good, but he is an incredibly heavy-handed striker who will look for his trips and takedowns when the situation calls for them. Mairon Santos looks to overwhelm his opponent with a Thai style, but this should leave him open to being taken to the ground, while his upright posture will make it easier for Ofli to connect with big strikes.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC Vegas 96 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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