This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 95 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 95 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Stephanie Luciano (5-1-1) v. Talita Alencar (5-0-1)
Stephanie Luciano - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 5 wins
Talita Alencar - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 58" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a rematch from their Contender Series fight, which ended in a close draw. Alencar had the edge on the mat, while Luciano had the edge on the feet. I expect this to play out similarly, but with UFC judges leaning more on striking and damage currently, I would give Luciano the better chance to win. Depending on the action, this fight could score surprisingly well and could be sneaky for GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 95 Pick: Luciano
Jarno Errens (14-5-1) v. Youssef Zalal (14-5-1)
Jarno Errens - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Youssef Zalal - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Errens found his first UFC win last time out but now draws an opponent with a much higher skill level in Zalal. Zalal should be better everywhere the fight goes, having no issue dispatching the 29-year-old Errens. He makes an excellent play for all contests.
UFC Vegas 95 Pick: Zalal
Karl Williams (10-1-0) v. Jhonata Diniz (7-0-0)
Karl Williams - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 10 wins
Jhonata Diniz - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Diniz will have opportunities to knock out Williams, but that is likely his only path to winning this fight. Williams should continue his rise through a dominant ground display and damaging strikes. I expect him to once again find himself in the optimal DFS lineup through strikes, chained takedowns and control time.
UFC Vegas 95 Pick: Williams
Karol Rosa (17-6-0) v. Pannie Kianzad (16-8-0)
Karol Rosa - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 17 wins
Pannie Kianzad - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a close fight between two experienced fighters. Rosa has looked better than Kianzad lately, and I would expect her to control the majority of the fight. There will likely be some groundwork, but this should primarily remain on the feet. I would anticipate a low score for DFS in this one.
UFC Vegas 95 Pick: Rosa
Charalampos Grigoriou (8-4-0) v. Toshiomi Kazama (10-4-0)
Charalampos Grigoriou - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Toshiomi Kazama - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Unless Kazama has figured something out, this will likely be another fight in which he is dominated. Kazama might have a slight edge on the mat, but it would not be by much. However, Grigoriou should be far better on the feet, and I would not be surprised to see him end this early. He makes a solid play for all contests.
UFC Vegas 95 Pick: Grigoriou
Yana Santos (14-8-0) v. Chelsea Chandler (6-2-0)
Yana Santos - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Chelsea Chandler - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Chandler is currently the most popular dog on the slate, and if you look over Santos's last three fights, it is easy to see why bettors are on her. Santos has looked slow and out of sorts, but there is reason to believe she gets back on track here. Her striking was crisp last fight, putting up 151 total strikes, and she had three minutes of control time. Chandler got her second UFC win in three fights and looked excellent despite being against worse competition. If Santos cannot win this one, she is probably done in the UFC. I expect her to give it everything and strike her way to a win.
UFC Vegas 95 Pick: Santos
Chris Gutierrez (20-5-2) v. Quang Le (8-0-0)
Chris Gutierrez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 20 wins
Quang Le - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Le is making his UFC debut on short notice and taking on his toughest challenge. He has a solid all-around game and should have opportunities to make his mark throughout the fight. However, given the short camp and the quality of competition, I would give Gutierrez the advantage over Le everywhere. This is a pure GPP fight, as Gutierrez does not always score well in wins.
UFC Vegas 95 Pick: Gutierrez
Danny Barlow (8-0-0) v. Nikolay Veretennikov (8-6-0)
Danny Barlow - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Nikolay Veretennikov - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Veretennikov is making his UFC debut after three consecutive wins in another promotion following his Contender Series loss. He is a solid striker with plenty of pop, so this fight should be explosive. Barlow showed off his striking and power in his debut. Someone is likely going down in this fight, making it an excellent target for GPP contests. I expect Barlow's power and technical striking to carry him to his second UFC win.
UFC Vegas 95 Pick: Barlow
Jose Mariscal (16-6-0) v. Damon Jackson (23-6-1)
Jose Mariscal - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
Damon Jackson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Mariscal should have no issue wiping the floor with Jackson. He is better everywhere and should score well for DFS. Jackson's chance for a win is a hail mary submission. Mariscal is one of the best plays on the slate.
UFC Vegas 95 Pick: Mariscal
Marcin Tybura (25-8-0) v. Serghei Spivac (16-4-0)
Marcin Tybura - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 25 wins
Serghei Spivac - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a rematch from a 2020 fight in which Tybura dominated a decision victory. That was a three-round fight; this one is five. I see it going much the same way, with Tybura controlling the fight and dominating everywhere. Spivac is dangerous, but Tybura is a defensive fighter with a high fight IQ. Tybura is an excellent play for all contests.
UFC Vegas 95 Pick: Tybura
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
