This week's UFC card features several closely-lined fights, allowing us to find major edges if we can identify clear winners. We will take a look at every bout across three platforms, including a surging strawweight and a post-hype prospect who is still capable of putting on a show. Our line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Jeong Yeong Lee ($9,100)
Hyder Amil is an incredibly fast starter who looks to overwhelm opponents, but this style will likely come back to bite him against Lee, a lanky fighter who is agile in the pocket and uses his length well in grappling situations. I expect Lee to control this fight with a jab from range while employing his own clinch wrestling when he decides to bring this one to the mat.
Mohammed Usman ($8,800)
Usman has been underwhelming to this point in his MMA career, but he will get a favorable stylistic matchup in Thomas Petersen, who wants to make fights as ugly as possible before dragging his opponent to the ground. It's hard to imagine many mid-tier heavyweights can outwrestle Usman, and he does feature a serviceable jab and leg kicks if the bout stays at range.
Virna Jandiroba ($8,500)
While Jandiroba's placement in the Main Event slot is questionable, there is no doubting her skills. She may not win a boxing championship any time soon, but the Brazilian now features a jab, decent footwork, and the ability to throw in combination. Amanda Lemos is aggressive to a fault, which should allow Virna to hit reactive takedowns and force tie-ups when her counterpart tries to swing at range.
Luana Carolina ($8,000)
Carolina is agile, strong for the weight class, and can wrestle offensively. That really should be enough against Lucie Pudilova, who is a good boxer from distance but has never shown the ability to get off of her back. Carolina does tend to pull her head straight back as a form of defense, but she is in a division that ensures she will rarely pay too big of a cost for this mistake. Instead, she should be able to work her way into the clinch and take the upper hand.
Trey Ogden ($7,800)
To put it mildly, Ogden is not the most exciting fighter on the roster. However, he is a committed grappler and strong wrestler who manages to evade strikes from his opponents and force them into a slow, close-quarters fight. While there will be danger in standing at range with Loik Radzhabov, "The Tajik Tank" swings incredibly wide in the pocket, which should leave opportunities to hit reactive takedowns. Ogden has held his own against bigger punchers than Radzhabov, giving me confidence that he can get this fight where he wants it.
Cody Durden ($8,300)
Durden is such a ferocious wrestler that it's tough to pass on him at this price. The 33-year-old has notched four or more takedowns in four UFC fights, including an 11-takedown performance in a win over Jose Johnson last year. Bruno Silva has shown tremendous power of late but has been taken down at will by committed wrestlers, and Durden hasn't been stopped by strikes in his 21 professional fights. He may have to weather an early storm, but Durden is the style of grappler who has the ability to break a slate if he gets his game going.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Cody Gibson OVER 48.5 SIgnificant Strikes, Dione Barbosa UNDER 49.5 Significant Strikes, and Brad Tavares OVER 52.5 Significant Strikes
It's difficult to get an exact read on Cody Gibson, as most of his fights at the highest level took place nearly a decade ago. Still, we've seen a man who is willing to brawl or wrestle, depending on his opponent. In the case of Brian Kelleher, I lean more towards a brawl, as "Boom" is a strong wrestler in his own right and generally likes to stay outside the pocket, which should make it more difficult to take him down. This will likely result in a kickboxing fight at range.
Conventional wisdom dictates that two grapplers will generally have a striking match, but I'm not sure that holds regarding Barbosa and Miranda Maverick. The Brazilian fighter tends to have the kind of fight her opponent wants, and Maverick has piled on the takedowns of late, recording a total of 15 in her last five fights. This seems to suggest that we will have quite a bit of clinch and ground work, which will keep significant strike totals low.
Brad Tavares may be well past his prime as a title contender at middleweight, but the Hawaiian fighter's takedown defense has held up through the years and now stands at a robust 81 percent. Jun Yong Park is a competent wrestler and back-take artist, but he is more than happy to sit behind his jab and have a boxing match if the situation calls for it. This strikes me as a line that expects far too much grappling and is one of my favorite overs on the slate.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings - Fight Time
Kaynan Kruschewsky UNDER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Steve Garcia UNDER 5.5 Minutes of Fight Time.
Kruschewsky is billed as a ninth-degree blackbelt in Muay Thai, but we didn't see much of that in his debut against Elves Brener, as storming forward with sloppy punches resulted in "Bahia" getting clipped behind the ear with a counter shot and stopped in Round 1. Kurt Holobaugh has considerable power, and Kruschewsky may opt to rely on his BJJ blackbelt instead to take the path of least resistance. Whichever way it plays out should result in a short night at the office for someone.
The way Garcia and Seungwoo Choi fight, I would be incredibly surprised if this one sees a second frame. While both can grapple as a backup, their primary mode of engagement is creating a car crash in the center of the cage and betting their opponent will not survive. Something has to give here, and we will be there to collect regardless of what that something is.
Bets to Consider
Doo Ho Choi Wins via KO/TKO (+480)
Choi may never reach the heights it seemed he was capable of heading into his bout with Cub Swanson in 2016, but he remains an accurate power striker who keeps opponents on the end of his punches. Bill Algeo learned against a much less dangerous striker in Kyle Nelson that bad things can happen when you try to walk through your opponent's offense, and I can't imagine that he has had enough time to make the necessary adjustments to keep himself safe here.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC Vegas 94 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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