This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 94 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 94 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Mohammed Usman (10-3-0) v. Thomas Petersen (8-2-0)
Mohammed Usman - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
Thomas Petersen - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Given their previous fights, it is difficult to expect much from this heavyweight fight. A knockout could come anytime, but I expect a slower-paced fight, resulting in a lower-scoring decision. Usman should have the better ground game and throw slightly more volume, but I would not be surprised to see a split decision in this one.
UFC Vegas 94 Pick: Usman
Luana Carolina (10-4-0) v. Lucie Pudilova (14-9-0)
Luana Carolina - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 10 wins
Lucie Pudilova - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight should be close for 15 minutes, and it would not be surprising to see it end with a split decision. I would give Carolina a slight edge on the feet and Pudilova a slight edge on the mat. No matter what happens, I do not see a high score without a finish in the first two rounds.
UFC Vegas 94 Pick: Carolina
Loik Radzhabov (18-5-1) v. Trey Ogden (17-6-0)
Loik Radzhabov - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
Trey Ogden - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Radzhabov is one of my favorite plays of the card. I expect him to be better everywhere and bully Ogden to an early finish. Ogden is one-dimensional and struggles against better competition.
UFC Vegas 94 Pick: Radzhabov
Miranda Maverick (13-5-0) v. Dione Barbosa (7-2-0)
Miranda Maverick - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 65" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
Dione Barbosa - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Barbosa won her UFC debut against someone much less experienced than Maverick. Maverick should dominate this fight everywhere, and I would not be surprised to see her make the optimal lineup for DFS.
UFC Vegas 94 Pick: Maverick
Brian Kelleher (24-15-0) v. Cody Gibson (19-10-0)
Brian Kelleher - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 24 wins
Cody Gibson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Both fighters are on three- and four-fight losing streaks, and the loser will likely receive their walking papers. Kelleher has been finished in three consecutive fights, and you have to wonder about his ability to survive any fight at this point. Gibson is the play, but both guys are solid choices for GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 94 Pick: Gibson
Hyder Amil (9-0-0) v. Jeong Yeong Lee (11-1-0)
Hyder Amil - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Jeong Yeong Lee - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another fight that will likely be much closer than most might think. Both guys are solid strikers. However, Lee will have an edge on the mat, and Amil has shown susceptibility to being taken down. I could see this fight scoring well without a finish, and both make solid plays for GPP contests. Amil is my preferred play as the dog.
UFC Vegas 94 Pick: Amil
Doo Ho Choi (14-4-1) v. Bill Algeo (18-8-0)
Doo Ho Choi - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
Bill Algeo - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Choi returned from a three-year layoff to a questionable draw. His striking was clean, and he did not show any signs of ring rust. Algeo was knocked out in the first round by the same fighter Choi drew with in his return. These guys are on pretty equal footing, but I would give Algeo a slight edge everywhere.
UFC Vegas 94 Pick: Algeo
Cody Durden (16-5-1) v. Bruno Silva (13-5-2)
Cody Durden - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
Bruno Silva - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Durden generally wins by bullying fighters lacking a ground game with chained takedowns. He has been submitted four times in his career and struggles against better grapplers. Silva is precisely that. He has striking combined with an excellent ground game. This fight should score well and go one of two ways. Durden continues his dominance with takedowns and scores well, or he gets himself into trouble, and Silva submits him early. There is also a slim chance one of them records a knockout as well, making this a great fight to target for GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 94 Pick: Silva
Kurt Holobaugh (20-8-0) v. Kaynan Kruschewsky (15-2-0)
Kurt Holobaugh - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 20 wins
Kaynan Kruschewsky - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a complete wildcard of a fight. Holobaugh has one win in six UFC fights, while Kruschewsky failed to win his debut fight last time out. Both guys have a plethora of finishes, so it is a safe bet that this ends inside the distance, making each a solid target for GPP contests. Kruschewsky is younger, has a reach advantage, and appears to be the better overall fighter.
UFC Vegas 94 Pick: Kruschewsky
Steve Garcia (15-5-0) v. Seung Woo Choi (11-6-0)
Steve Garcia - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins
Seungwoo Choi - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Garcia is one of the smash plays of the slate. He will dominate the striking and should end this fight early. Choi's best bet comes from getting this to the mat, but Garcia's takedown defense should hold long enough for him to knock Choi out. Fire up Garcia in all formats.
UFC Vegas 94 Pick: Garcia
Brad Tavares (20-9-0) v. Jun Yong Park (17-6-0)
Brad Tavares - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 20 wins
Jun Yong Park - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to primarily play out on the feet, as both fighters are sound strikers and prefer to be upright. Taveras has lost three of his last four, including two losses by knockout. Park was on a run of four straight, including three by Rear Naked Choke, before losing his last time out in a split decision. Park should have the edge everywhere, and I would not be surprised to see him drop Taveras early.
UFC Vegas 94 Pick: Park
Amanda Lemos (14-3-1) v. Virna Jandiroba (20-3-0)
Amanda Lemos - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Virna Jandiroba - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a fun five round fight and will either come down to Lemos's striking or Jandiroba's ground game. Lemos has shown a past deficiency in her takedown defense, so I am inclined to go with Jandiroba. I would also give Jandiroba the edge in cardio for five rounds. She makes a solid play for all contests.
UFC Vegas 94 Pick: Jandiroba
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
