This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Vegas 107
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 107 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 145-60-1 ~ Dog Picks 24-16-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Macy Chiasson +100
Bet of the Week Record: 10-6-1 +685
DFS Lock of the Week: Zach Reese - 13-2
Fanduel Captain: Reese/Goff
Erin Blanchfield (13-2-0) v. Maycee Barber (14-2-0)
Erin Blanchfield (High-end GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Well-rounded grappler with strong top control
- Maintains a relentless pace into deep rounds
Maycee Barber (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 14 wins (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Aggressive striker riding a six-fight win streak
- Prefers to keep fights standing and push the pace
DFS Perspective: Blanchfield's control and grappling advantage make her one of the strongest plays on the card. While Barber has been surging, she's never dealt with a pressure-wrestler like Blanchfield. Expect Blanchfield to dictate where this fight takes place and work her game for three rounds, or find a finish if openings appear.
UFC Vegas 107 Pick: Blanchfield
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Mateusz Gamrot (24-3-0) v. Ludovit Klein (23-4-1)
Mateusz Gamrot (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 24 wins (8 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 11 decisions)
- Elite wrestler with relentless takedown pressure
- Averages 5.25 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 23 wins (9 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Powerful striker with a six-fight unbeaten streak
- Effective counter-striker with solid takedown defense
DFS Perspective: This could be a bit of a trap spot for Gamrot. While he's one of the best wrestlers in the division, he's shown clear struggles when he can't secure takedowns consistently. Klein's takedown defense has been excellent, and if he keeps it standing, he could frustrate Gamrot throughout. I still favor Gamrot to edge it out with pressure and control, but it may end up being a low-scoring affair for DFS purposes. Temper expectations here.
UFC Vegas 107 Pick: Gamrot
Ramiz Brahimaj (11-5-0) v. Billy Ray Goff (9-3-0)
Ramiz Brahimaj (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (1 KO/TKO, 10 submissions, 0 decisions)
- Submission specialist with all wins via submission
- Aggressive grappler who seeks early finishes
Billy Goff (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 9 wins (7 KO/TKO, 0 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Powerful striker with a high finish rate
- Prefers to keep fights standing and press the pace
DFS Perspective: This matchup presents a classic striker vs. grappler scenario. Brahimaj's path to victory lies in his submission skills, aiming to take the fight to the ground early. Goff, on the other hand, will look to utilize his striking power to keep the fight standing and seek a knockout. The outcome heavily depends on who can implement their game plan first. Both fighters offer high upside for GPP formats, but they also come with risks if they cannot impose their preferred fighting style.
UFC Vegas 107 Pick: Goff
Dustin Jacoby (20-9-1) v. Bruno Lopes (14-1-0)
Dustin Jacoby (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20 wins (13 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 6 decisions)
- Technical kickboxer with a high-volume striking approach
- Strong takedown defense; prefers to keep fights standing
Bruno Lopes (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (6 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Aggressive striker with a forward-pressure style
- Solid grappling skills with heavy top control
DFS Perspective: This matchup features two powerful strikers with contrasting styles. Jacoby's technical kickboxing and experience at the highest level give him an edge in striking exchanges. However, Lopes' aggressive approach and grappling prowess could pose challenges if he closes the distance and takes the fight to the ground. While Jacoby is favored, Lopes' forward pressure and potential to disrupt Jacoby's rhythm make this a fight to watch. DFS players should consider the volatility of this matchup, as it could swing either way depending on who implements their game plan more effectively.
UFC Vegas 107 Pick: Lopes
Ketlen Vieira (14-4-0) v. Macy Chiasson (10-3-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Strong clinch work and top control; excels in grinding decisions
- Struggles to maintain pace against rangier, mobile opponents
Macy Chiasson (High-upside GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Athletic and aggressive; utilizes reach and physicality effectively
- Solid defensive grappling; capable of reversing position and creating scrambles
DFS Perspective: Chiasson presents an intriguing underdog play with high upside in DFS formats. Her size and athleticism could pose significant challenges for Vieira, especially if she maintains distance and leverages her striking advantage. While Vieira has the grappling credentials to control the fight on the ground, Chiasson's defensive skills and ability to scramble may neutralize this advantage. Given Chiasson's potential for a finish and her underdog status, she offers considerable value in GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 107 Pick: Chiasson
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Zach Reese (8-2-0) v. Dusko Todorovic (12-5-0)
Zachary Reese (Excellent play for all DFS formats)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 8 wins (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 1 decision)
- Aggressive striker with a high finish rate
- All wins achieved via stoppage, showcasing potent knockout power
Dusko Todorovic (Risky GPP option)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 1 decision)
- Struggles with striking defense; susceptible to early knockouts
- Potential for early finish, but carries significant risk
DFS Perspective: This matchup is a must-play for DFS, given the high likelihood of a knockout. Reese's aggressive style and proven finishing ability make him a strong candidate for an early stoppage, offering high upside in all formats. Todorovic's defensive vulnerabilities further increase the chances of a quick finish. While Todorovic has the power to end the fight himself, the risk associated with his recent performances makes Reese the preferred play.
UFC Vegas 107 Pick: Reese
Allan Nascimento (20-6-0) v. Jafel Filho (16-3-0)
Allan Nascimento (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20 wins (1 KO/TKO, 15 submissions, 4 decisions)
- High-level grappler with 75% of wins by submission
- Typically hunts for the back and controls with a relentless pace
Jafel Filho (Slightly stronger GPP play)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (5 KO/TKO, 10 submissions, 1 decision)
- Aggressive grappler with finishing instincts
- Carries more upside due to pressure and submission setups
DFS Perspective: This is a high-level grappling battle, but I slightly favor Filho for DFS due to the pressure he brings early. Nascimento is crafty and will be dangerous if he gets to the back, but Filho has shown he can thrive in scrambles and push the pace. With both fighters capable of ending it on the mat, it's a sneaky GPP spot, but Filho feels like the better value play overall.
UFC Vegas 107 Pick: Filho
Jordan Leavitt (11-3-0) v. Kurt Holobaugh (21-9-0)
Jordan Leavitt (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11 wins (2 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Unorthodox grappler with creative submission setups
- Prefers to engage in scrambles and exploit openings on the ground
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21 wins (7 KO/TKO, 10 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Experienced striker with a solid grappling foundation
- Won The Ultimate Fighter 31 Lightweight Tournament
DFS Perspective: This matchup features two fighters with contrasting styles. Leavitt's unconventional grappling approach could pose problems for Holobaugh if the fight goes to the ground. However, Holobaugh's experience and striking prowess may allow him to keep the fight standing and control the pace. Given the potential for a finish on either side, this bout presents a moderate-risk, moderate-reward scenario for GPP formats. However, a decision likely yields a lower score.
UFC Vegas 107 Pick: Leavitt
Andreas Gustafsson (11-2-0) v. Trevin Giles (16-7-0)
Andreas Gustafsson (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 1 decisions)
- Prefers to dictate the fight with pressure and ground control
- Riding a three-fight win streak, showcasing improved striking
Trevin Giles (Low-end GPP option)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (6 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Struggled recently, entering this bout on a three-fight losing streak
- Susceptible to pressure and has shown vulnerabilities against aggressive opponents
DFS Perspective: Gustafsson's relentless wrestling and pressure make him a compelling option in GPP formats. His ability to control opponents on the ground could neutralize Giles' striking advantage. However, Giles' experience and well-rounded skill set shouldn't be overlooked. If he can manage the pressure and keep the fight standing, he has the tools to make it competitive. Given the dynamics, Gustafsson offers higher upside, especially if he can implement his game plan effectively.
UFC Vegas 107 Pick: Gustaffson
Rayanne dos Santos (14-8-0) v. Alice Ardelean (9-7-0)
Rayanne Amanda (Strong cash game play)
- Height: 5'2" – Reach: 62" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (2 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Former Invicta FC Atomweight Champion with a well-rounded skill set
- High-level grappler with 8 submission victories
Alice Ardelean (Low-end GPP option)
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 62" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9 wins (4 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 1 decisions)
- Primarily a striker with limited high-level experience
- Recent UFC performances have highlighted vulnerabilities in her ground game
DFS Perspective: Rayanne dos Santos enters this matchup as a significant favorite, reflecting her experience and skill set. Her grappling prowess makes her a reliable option for cash games. While a finish is possible, the fight is expected to go the distance, suggesting a moderate DFS ceiling. Alice Ardelean, with her striking-focused style, faces a challenging opponent in dos Santos. Her path to victory is limited, and she presents a high-risk, low-reward option for GPP formats.
UFC Vegas 107 Pick: Santos
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
