This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
UFC St. Louis Betting Picks: Four Bets for Saturday, May 11
The UFC goes on the road Saturday, May 11 for UFC St. Louis. In the main event, heavyweights collide, as Derrick Lewis takes on Rodrigo Nascimento.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis (27-12 and 1 NC) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (11-1 and 1 NC)
I'm backing Derrick Lewis to get his hand raised in the main event against Rodrigo Nascimento on Saturday.
Lewis is taking a step down in competition to face Nascimento, who I haven't been impressed with in the UFC. The Brazilian has edged out decision wins over Don'Tale Mayes, Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser in his last three fights, which aren't necessarily impressive wins. His lone loss was also by KO to Chris Daukaus in 45 seconds -- a fighter who isn't known for his KO power.
The way to beat Lewis is to take him down, but Nascimento doesn't have the best wrestling (he has a 33 percent takedown accuracy mark). Lewis has stuffed takedowns from better wrestlers, and I expect him to keep it standing and land a KO shot in the first or second round, as I don't trust Nascimento's chin.
UFC St. Louis Best Bet: Derrick Lewis (-155)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Chase Hooper (13-3-1) vs. Slava Borschev (7-3-1)
For my underdog at UFC St. Louis, I'm backing Chase Hooper to get his hand raised Saturday night against Slava Borschev.
Hooper is 2-0 since moving up to lightweight, but his striking defense is still a concern. Although Borschev is a great striker, his main weaknesses are his takedown defense and the fact he gives up his back so easily.
When Borschev lost to Mike Davis and Marc Diakiese he gave up nine and 11 takedowns, respectively, and also gave up four in his draw against Nazim Sadykhov. I expect Hooper to be able to get the fight to the ground and get ahold of Borchev's back to eventually earn a submission win or ground-and-pound TKO.
This should be a pick'em fight, as there are clear paths to victory for both men. At plus-money, I'll trust the grappler here in Hooper, who has improved his striking defense and has a better chin at 155lbs.
UFC St. Louis Best Bet: Chase Hooper (+124)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Joaquin Buckley (18-6) vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (34-8-2)
In the co-main event of UFC St. Louis, Joaquin Buckley takes on Nursulton Ruziboev, who is dropping down to welterweight in a fight that was made on relatively short notice, and I'm backing the fight to go over 1.5 rounds.
Since dropping down to welterweight, Buckley is 3-0, and his chin is much better. Ruziboev is a knockout artist, but I have questions about how his power will translate at 170lbs. Although all his UFC wins have come in the first round, Buckley is a massive step up in competition for Ruziboev, and I have doubts he will be able to put him out.
Instead, Buckley can use his wrestling to take Ruziboev down to extend the fight to try and tire him out. The longer the fight goes, the better it is for Buckley, and I expect him to fight smart here to help the over 1.5 rounds.
UFC St. Louis Best Bet: Joaquin Buckley-Nursulton Ruziboev over 1.5 rounds (-140)
Weight Classes: Welterweight & Light heavyweight
Kevin Jousset (10-2) vs. Jared Gooden (23-9)
Carlos Ulberg (9-1) vs. Alonzo Menifield (15-3-1)
For my parlay, I'm taking Kevin Jousset and Carlos Ulberg to get their hands raised at UFC St. Louis.
Jousset is the second fight of the night, as he takes on Jared Gooden. Jousset trains at City Kickboxing and is a technical striker, which is where he will be able to have success. He should be able to pick apart Gooden on the feet, as Gooden has a negative striking differential (he absorbs a rather shocking 6.68 per minute). Jousset throws a ton of volume and will be able to edge out a one-sided decision win here.
For my other leg, I'm backing Carlos Ulberg to get the win against Alonzo Menifield. Ulberg is a great striker who has learned a lot from his first career loss (which was his debut). Menifield is on a good run, but his cardio is still a concern, as he does gas out in fights. Ulberg will be the much better striker here and will be able to pick apart Menifield and avoid those power shots. Look for either get a late TKO or a 30-27 decision win.
UFC St. Louis Best Bets: Kevin Jousset & Carlos Ulberg parlay (-101)
UFC St. Louis Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC St. Louis best bets:
- Derrick Lewis (-155)
- Chase Hooper (+124)
- Joaquin Buckley-Nursulton Ruziiboev over 1.5 rounds (-140)
- Kevin Jousset & Carlos Ulberg parlay (-101)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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