This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
It would be an understatement to say that the UFC's card in Saudi Arabia hasn't stayed together, as it now features just 11 fights (including several late replacements). However, these types of cards can be very profitable if players can hunker down and make the right reads in the chaos. We'll cover each bout across three platforms, including an all-action underdog and a veteran heavyweight who is as durable as they come. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Muin Gafurov ($8,400)
Given Gafurov's skill set as a willing and active grappler with a competent boxing game, it's a bit surprising that he has gone winless in his first two UFC fights. He will face perhaps his most forgiving opponent to date in Kyung Ho Kang, who is a better pure striker than either of Gafurov's previous matchups, but his upright stance and tendency to stand flat-footed should allow "Tajik" to take control with his ground game. Kang is no slouch off his back, which likely means he will accept positions rather than attempt to return to his feet.
Chang Ho Lee ($7,900)
Lee is the ideal kind of fighter to select as an underdog, as he will look to create chaos in scrambles with the confidence that he will come out on top. Long Xiao is a pressure fighter who wants to throw heavy strikes, giving Lee ample opportunity to clinch up and attempt to take this fight to the ground. We saw Lee persevere through tough positions during the Road to UFC tournament, and I'm betting he outlasts the more musclebound fighter here.
Felipe Lima ($7,900)
The fact that Lima got the late-replacement call just this week is likely the only reason he is an underdog in this spot. Muhammadjon Naimov is a powerful striker and a decent top-control grappler, but he isn't very athletic and doesn't move his head, which got him badly hurt more than once in a blood-and-guts win over Nathaniel Wood in October. By contrast, Lima is an incredibly fast striker with excellent footwork who can show off slick jujitsu from any position. Conditioning is the major concern, as Lima took a short-notice flight to arrive in Saudi Arabia. Still, if he can manage his energy, Lima should be able to make the most of an opportunity.
Rinat Fakhretdinov ($9,200)
We have seen Nicolas Dalby surprise opponents with his awkward movements and power. Still, the Danish fighter has been taken down nine times in his last four fights, and Fakhretdinov is too powerful to expect to consistently get back up after being grounded. Any time spent in the pocket could make this interesting, but unless Dalby can land something early, "Gladiator" will likely control this fight for the duration.
Sharaputdin Magomedov ($8,800)
It's been quite a while since we've had a must-play, but that's exactly what " Shara Bullet" has become as a (-550) favorite with this salary. Antonio Trocoli's wrestling could give Shara problems under normal circumstances, but there is no way that he will be able to contend with the pace of the 30-year-old, following a nearly three-year layoff due to a failed drug test. Even if he has a tricky first round, Magomedov has plenty of time to pay off his price with room to spare.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - SIgnificant Strikes
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov UNDER 24.5 Significant Strikes, Johnny Walker UNDER 39.5 Significant Strikes, and Nasrat Haqparast UNDER 70.5 Significant Strikes
Brendson Ribeiro didn't survive longer than two minutes against a pure brawler in his UFC debut, so it's difficult to imagine he will fare better against a striker who can manage range and throw crisp, clean shots. Essentially, we are banking on a Gadzhiyasulov finish here, but "The Gorilla" is athletic and powerful enough to change the course of the bout with one shot. In either case, look for Ribiero to have a fight end in the first round for the seventh consecutive time.
Walker has grown accustomed to having longer fights since trying to round out his striking with SBG Ireland, but Volkan Oezdemir likely won't get the memo, as he likes to get on the inside and land fight-finishing shots. He has also begun working more wrestling into his game, and it's nearly impossible to score significant strikes off of your back. This and Walker's general hesitancy should lead to a fairly comfortable under total.
If Jared Gordon tries to strike with Haqparast, the speed and power of Nasrat will likely result in an early knockout. If Gordon plays to his strengths, he will turn the bout into a wrestling match. In either scenario, this strike total is far too wide, as conditions allowing an over total don't favor either fighter.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fantasy Score
*Based on Prize Picks Internal Scoring System
Kelvin Gastelum OVER 87.5 Fantasy Points, and Robert Whittaker UNDER 93.5 Fantasy Points
The first thing that must be noted when we talk about Gastelum's fight with Daniel Rodriguez is it's taking place up a weight class, as the former title challenger made it known early he would not be able to make the welterweight limit. This being the case, Gastelum would be foolish not to dust off his wrestling, as he should have a significant strength advantage here. This, combined with sharp boxing and the general fast pace of Rodriguez, is a recipe for a big score.
Speaking of pace, it's difficult to imagine any Ikram Aliskerov fight going much further than the first round, as the Dagestani fighter has finished his first two UFC fights early in the opening frame. This desire to fight quickly will likely be exacerbated by the quick turnaround and trip to Saudi Arabia after he was pulled from his fight last week to be involved in this main event. Whittaker hasn't been the dominant force at middleweight we came to know a few years ago, but he is still a sniper and can use his variety and defense to set up heavy counter shots. Aliskerov has been hit hard in both his Octagon appearances despite his dominant performances, and a fighter like Whittaker will not allow him to play fast and loose from kickboxing range.
Bets to Consider
Alexander Volkov wins via KO/TKO (+430)
Sergei Pavlovich saw his run as a KO machine stopped in its tracks against Tom Aspinall, who proved too agile and precise for the relatively lumbering powerhouse. While Volkanovski won't often win by being the superior athlete, he will once again be able to rely on his height, as he comes into this bout with an advantage of four inches. This means that Pavlovich won't be able to simply storm the pocket with strikes and instead will need to negotiate range. It's also important to note that "Drago" has been knocked out only twice in his 47-fight career, while his countryman hasn't been outside the first frame in any of his last nine fights. If Volkov can extend this bout, he should be able to take over down the stretch and find the strikes to put his opponent away.
For another UFC betting perspective, check out our UFC Saudi Arabia Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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