Top Picks and Predictions for UFC Nashville: Lewis vs Teixeira
UFC Nashville is a unique card that features more heavy favorites than we are used to seeing on a standard 12-fight slate. We'll navigate through the card across three platforms, detailing the best DFS and betting plays. Picks this week include a welterweight mainstay with all the tools to win as an underdog, and a boxer who will try to play matador en route to a knockout. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Gabriel Bonfim ($9,300)
There was a time when Bonfilm versus Stephen Thompson would have been an intriguing matchup between two kickboxers, but "Wonderboy" has been taken down a whopping 17 times in his last five fights, and the Brazilian fighter is comfortable wrestling when necessary. Until Thompson can show some of the defense that made fighters have to deal with him in his prime, there is no reason to see these matchups any other way.
Tuco Tokkos ($7,600)
There aren't many heavyweights in the organization whom I would make Justin Tafa a significant favorite against. This line is especially confusing because of Tokkos' wrestling ability, as one could argue that Tafa's last fight against Sean Sharaf could have been stopped when Sharaf was pummeling him on the ground in the closing seconds of Round 1. Tafa can throw nice combinations and body work when he can stand at range, but he is far too willing to brawl, and his upright posture should invite those takedown attempts.
Morgan Charriere ($8,900)
Being on the wrong side of the speed equation hurt Charriere against Nathaniel Wood, but he should have no such issues against Nate Landwehr, who plods forward looking to brawl with his opponents. This should allow "The Last Pirate" to stay one step ahead and mix in his takedown game. Landwher is known for his toughness, but Charriere will have too many advantages for "The Train" to be live to anything except landing a fight-altering shot.
Eduarda Moura ($9,500)
Lauren Murphy deserves credit for extending a career that began in 2010, but her stiff posture and striking make it difficult to see how she will best a fighter as imposing as Moura. While Murphy has been stingy when it comes to allowing takedowns in her career, Moura should be able to close distance whenever she likes, making her a cash option at the very least.
Max Griffin ($7,100)
Griffin never quite made it to title contention, but there's a lot to like about a game centered around a stiff jab, good footwork, and the ability to grapple. Chris Curtis can pour on the volume when he gets going, but "The Action Man" is a notorious slow starter, and I think "Pain" should be able to control the distance and use his wrestling to take at least two rounds in a decision.
Vitor Petrino ($9,600)
You likely won't find much Petrino love at this price, as he has been stopped in his last two fights. Still, there is an opportunity against Austen Lane, who has been knocked out in four of his seven UFC (and UFC-adjacent) fights. He also has a takedown defense rate of just 50 percent, which will let Petrino get back to the devastating top game we saw early in his career.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Mike Davis OVER 45.5 Significant Strikes, Chidi Njokuani OVER 45.5 Significant Strikes, and Melissa Martinez OVER 34.5 Significant Strikes
Davis can do everything so well that it can be difficult to place the direction of his fights. However, Mitch Ramirez will likely be the stronger grappler here, and we saw in his Contender Series fight against Carlos Prates that he is tough enough to hang around against big punchers. This should result in a matchup that quickly exceeds our total.
A similar dynamic exists in Njokuani's bout with Jake Matthews, as "The Celtic Kid" has been stopped by strikes just once in 28 professional fights. "Bang Bang" will have sizeable advantages in height and reach, which will allow him to control the range and land strikes at will.
I'm not quite sure why the line here is so low, as Martinez has surpassed this total in both of her UFC fights and looks to be a functional kickboxer. While Fatima Kline can grapple well, most of the wrestling exchanges in her last fight were started by Viktoriia Dudakova. Kline will strike at range when given the opportunity, and I'm not convinced her style will translate to consistent finishes at this level.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Calvin Kattar Wins by KO/TKO (+215)
I see the fight between Steve Garcia and Kattar as a classic boxer versus brawler matchup. While Garcia is known to pressure and finish his opponents early, Kattar should be able to use his jab to great effect, eventually forcing "Mean Machine" to walk onto big shots. Garcia has a wrestling game he may look to employ, but Kattar's 77 percent takedown defense rate should help keep him upright and in space.
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO/TKO (-155)
I don't generally lay this much chalk on my prop picks, but I'm just not sure how Derrick Lewis fares in a matchup where he is not the bigger man. Teixeira is also agile for his size, as he can land head kicks at range before forcing clinch exchanges. It would hardly be surprising if "The Black Beast" tries to wrestle after failing to close the distance, but I think this ends with Lewis eating a hard shot as his frustration mounts.
Kennedy Nzechukwu Wins via KO/TKO (+195)
Nzechukwu fights deliberately enough that Valter Walker will likely be able to attempt a takedown or two, but the Nigerian fighter's five-inch reach advantage will make it difficult for "The Clean Monster" to get on the inside. We saw Walker struggle with a much less fluid and powerful fighter in Lukasz Brzeski, and Nzechukwi is excellent at dictating the terms of exchanges.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Nashville this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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