UFC Des Moines Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
The UFC is back with another 12-fight card full of intriguing matchups from which we can profit. We'll cover each bout across three platforms, including a veteran with power in his hands, and an undefeated fighter looking to solve a scary up-and-coming bantamweight. As always, our betting lines come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Ivana Petrovic ($8,800)
Petrovic and Juliana Miller are so aggressive that we will likely see a big score from whoever wins. The issue is that Miller needs to be in complete control at all times, as any pushback leads to "Killer" wildly throwing strikes and trying to force scrambles. Petrovic has shown the ability to stay composed in the pocket, and her strength advantage should allow her to bring this fight to the floor if she is not comfortable brawling.
Thomas Petersen ($8,900)
Peterson has spent so much time trying to box at range lately that I almost went for the flyer on Don'Tale Mayes, but I can't get past the 57 percent takedown defense rate of "Lord Kong." If Petersen can return to his dirty boxing and clinch wrestling, he should win this fight handily. However, Mayes moves well for a heavyweight and will be able to put strikes together if he is given space.
Daniel Marcos ($7,500)
I recognize the risk in picking against Montel Jackson, who has scored over 100 fantasy points in six of his eight UFC victories. However, we saw in his fight with Julio Arce that "Quik's" range striking game can break down when he gets backed up. Marcos will be the most dedicated pressure fighter that Jackson has fought to this point. He also has the wrestling ability to mix things up and the power to make his opponent pay for defensive lapses in the pocket.
Azamat Bekoev ($9,300)
Ryan Loder's scrambling ability helped him out of some tricky spots in his UFC debut, but I can't imagine it will be of much help against Bekoev, who should be the far stronger party here. If he can't win the wrestling exchanges, it is difficult to imagine how Loder can get his hand raised in this spot, as the middleweight TUF winner's striking can charitably be called a work in progress.
Quang Le ($7,700)
The ability to mix skills and throw in combination should carry the day for Le, as Gaston Bolanos is lax defensively, stands upright, and resigns to throwing one strike at a time. Lee will get in the face of Bolanos from the opening bell, allowing him to dictate where this fight takes place.
Gillian Robertson ($9,200)
This should be a fairly cut-and-dry matchup for Roberston, as Marina Rodriguez's awkward style often sees her lunging into strikes to try and close distance. This will give "The Savage" ample opportunity to get to her opponent's hips, and it should only take a few trips to the ground before the victory is secured.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Bo Nickal UNDER 34.5 Significant Strikes, Cory Sandhagen UNDER 114.5 Significant Strikes, and Serhiy Sidey OVER 64.5 Significant Strikes
Given the kickboxing match that ensued the last time Nickal faced a grappler, it's a bit difficult to predict what to expect when he takes on another jiujitsu specialist in Reinier de Ridder. Whereas Paul Craig was content to use his range, "RdR" has never been shy about working his game against any opponent. Nickal pledged to stick to his strengths following the lackluster victory over Craig, meaning we should see a lot of clinch fighting for as long as this one lasts.
While the strike total here isn't out of the question for someone like Sandhagen, I don't see him getting much opportunity to stand at range against Deiveson Figueiredo, who will need to overcome a height disadvantage of six inches. This makes me very confident that our total goes under one way or another, as the former flyweight champion will likely get knocked out if he cannot close the distance.
Advantages in height and reach should help Sidey breeze past this total, as Cameron Smotherman is no stranger to throwing combinations in the pocket. Both men exceed 4.00 significant strikes per minute in their UFC careers by a wide margin, and Smotherman will face an opponent who has never been knocked out in 13 professional fights.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Bets to Consider
Mason Jones Wins via KO/TKO (+200)
It's tough to know what to make of Jeremy Stephens, who has been out of the Octagon for four years while pursuing a career in bare-knuckle boxing. Stephens' legendary durability was fading down the stretch, as we saw in fights against Yair Rodriguez and Calvin Kattar. "Lil Heathen" will take on an aggressive, lanky, powerful fighter in Jones, who has notched as many as eight takedowns in a 15-minute fight. I expect the transition to such a dangerous opponent to be too much for Stephens, who may feel the need to go out on his shield here.
Yana Santos Wins via KO/TKO (+1200)
Meisha Tate's win over Julia Avila in December of 2023 was a major red flag for me, as the women's MMA pioneer began each round by simply making a beeline for her opponent. Once she had Avila in her grasp, "Cupcake" went to work, but the performance smacked of someone who had no other option but to close distance as quickly as possible. While not quite a knockout artist, Santos has shown power in the Octagon and is always light on her feet. This is very much a flyer play, but I feel it is one worth taking, as the now 38-year-old Tate looks to be running out of ideas in the cage.
Santiago Ponzinibbio Wins via KO/TKO (+420)
Daniel Rodriguez has only become slower and more stationary with each passing year, as evidenced by the fact that he has absorbed five and a half strikes per minute in his UFC career. Ponzinibbio should be able to exploit the fact that "D-Rod" is there to be hit, as the former title contender is still very agile and powerful at range.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Des Moines this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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