Drake's Takes: UFC 292 Sterling vs. O'Malley

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Published on August 16, 2023

The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 292 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.

Andrea Lee (13-7-0) v. Natalia Silva (15-5-1)

Andrea Lee - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins

Natalia Silva - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins

DFS Perspective: Lee rolls in on a two-fight losing streak and draws another high-rising prospect in Natalia Silva. Lee can keep the volume on the feet close but will have a disadvantage in power. I expect Silva to have an advantage anywhere the fight goes, but she will hold a significant edge in grappling. She should make quick work of the declining vet.

UFC 292 Pick: Silva

Maryna Moroz (11-4-0) v. Karine Silva (16-4-0)

Maryna Moroz - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins

Karine Silva - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: Silva is a fast-rising star with an excellent all-around game. She has been impressive in both UFC wins, finishing her opponents in the first round. Moroz had a three-fight winning streak snapped in her last fight and will not find things any easier in this one. Silva should be better everywhere, and I expect her to come up with another quick finish.

UFC 292 Pick: Silva

Gregory Rodrigues (13-5-0) v. Denis Tiuliulin (11-7-0)

Gregory Rodrigues - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins

Denis Tiuliulin - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins

DFS Perspective: Tiuliulin is always a threat to end the fight early with his considerable power and pressure, but he tends to struggle against higher competition. Rodrigues will be a tough out for Tiuliulin, and he will have a significant edge on the mat if takedowns are in his game plan. I expect a high score for DFS to come out of this fight either way it goes, but Rodrigues is the pick.

UFC 292 Pick: Rodrigues

Chris Weidman (15-6-0) v. Brad Tavaras (19-8-0)

Chris Weidman - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins

Brad Tavares - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 19 wins

DFS Perspective: Weidman returns to the Octagon after his gruesome injury over two years ago. It isn't easy to expect much from him as he is now 39 and going against a defensive fighter in Taveras. Taveras is on a two-fight slide but is an excellent get-right spot. He is the pick to win, but I do not expect a high score to come out of this fight for DFS.

UFC 292 Pick: Taveras

Gerald Meerschaert (35-16-0) v. Andre Petroski (9-1-0)

Gerald Meerschaert - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 33 finishes in 35 wins

Andre Petroski - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins

DFS Perspective: Meerschaert is a longtime UFC veteran and will always be a threat to find an early submission. Petroski has yet to lose in his four UFC fights but gets another step up in competition in this one. He has a solid overall game and will have a considerable edge on the feet. However, he could get his neck taken if he gets too reckless while grappling. I expect Petroski to avoid that danger and finish Meerschaert early for another big win.

UFC 292 Pick: Petroski

Marlon Vera (22-8-1) v. Pedro Munhoz (20-7-0)

Marlon Vera - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 20 wins

Pedro Munhoz - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 20 wins

DFS Perspective: Vera tends to start slow, which is the opposite of Munhoz. He will have a reach advantage and a slight edge in power. Munhoz will have a considerable edge in volume. I expect there to be little grappling or wrestling and for this to be closer to a 15-minute striking affair. In a striking match, I favor Munhoz, and seeing how he has never been finished in his career, I will ride with the dog.

UFC 292 Pick: Munhoz

Neil Magny (28-10-0) v. Ian Machado Garry (12-0-0)

Neil Magny - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 28 wins

Ian Garry - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling (Has wrestling/grappling in his back pocket)
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins

DFS Perspective: Geoff Neal withdrew, so Magny is taking the short-notice fight. This is a much easier matchup for Garry, and I fully expect him to run through Magny. Garry will be better in every aspect of the game outside of experience. This could be another big first or second-round knockout for the rising prospect.

UFC 292 Pick: Garry

Zhang Weili (23-3-0) v. Amanda Lemos (13-2-1)

Zhang Weili - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 63" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 23 wins

Amanda Lemos - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins

DFS Perspective: Lemos will always have a chance at a knockout with her considerable power. However, she tends to be wild, and Weili will exploit it. Weili is more consistent and has far more tools to win this fight. I expect her to dominate volume and potentially finish Lemos early for another title defense.

UFC 292 Pick: Zhang

Aljamain Sterling (23-3-0) v. Sean O'Malley (16-1-0)

Aljamain Sterling - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 23 wins

Sean O'Malley - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: In a pure striking match, O'Malley might win, but this will not be. Sterling will have a massive edge on the mat and no trouble getting it there. I expect Sterling to record another massive DFS score in what should be a dominant win.

UFC 292 Pick: Sterling

For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC 292 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.

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FANDUEL MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts

Scoring Notes

Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.

DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.