This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Atlantic City DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Atlantic City takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a UFC $350K Throwdown with $100K to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Women's Flyweight
Erin Blanchfield (12-1-0) v. Manon Fiorot (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Blanchfield ($8,800), Fiorot ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Blanchfield (-205), Fiorot (+170)
Perhaps the UFC will have Valentina Shevchenko face 125-pound queen Alexa Grasso for the Women's Flyweight Championship for a third time given their most recent bout last September ended in a split draw, but it would still be shocking if the winner of this fight didn't get a title shot at some point in the next 12 months. It's not like there's any depth in the division to begin with, so this fight has a ton riding on it.
A native of New Jersey, Blanchfield is going to have the crowd behind her. She's still just 24 years of age and has won each of her first six bouts with the company. Her most recent win over Taila Santos, arguably the best opponent she has faced to date, was also Erin's most underwhelming performance. Santos hung tough in the feet, while Blanchfield failed on all 14 of her takedown attempts. Although to Erin's credit, she did manage to rack up 8:08 worth of control time despite the fact she could never get her wrestling game going.
From a stylistic standpoint, Fiorot is essentially the opposite of Blanchfield. She's a big, heavy-handed power puncher that relies on her striking skills to be successful. Manon is 6-0 in the UFC, with back-to-back wins over Rose Namajunas and Katlyn Cerminara. Say what you will about Rose being undersized for flyweight and Cerminara having a one-dimensional offensive arsenal, but both are good wins for an inexperienced fighter trying to pad their resume.
The Santos performance can be looked at one of two ways for Blanchfield. Either you can view it as a positive that she beat a solid opponent despite never landing a single takedown, or you can view it as a negative and say a more talented striker like Fiorot would be able to expose her if she isn't able to consistently get her wrestling game going.
I can't help but think the fact this is a home game for Erin has significantly impacted the pricing for this fight. I can't for the life of me figure out in what world Blanchfield is $1,400 in salary better than Fiorot.
Yes, Blanchfield's grappling edge is significant, but I'd still be plenty surprised if she is able to physically manhandle Manon for any significant length of time. I lean towards Fiorot in prolonged striking exchanges, and I think she'll be able to damage Blanchfield at times on the feet in a bout scheduled for five rounds. That, combined with the massive salary discount Fiorot provides, is enough to swing me in the direction of the underdog.
THE PICK: Fiorot
Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Vicente Luque (22-9-1) v. Joaquin Buckley (17-6-0)
DK Salaries: Luque ($8,200), Buckley ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Luque (-120), Buckley (+100)
It was announced that Luque would be fighting Sean Brady in the main event of this card, but an agreement was never signed, and it eventually fell apart altogether after Brady suffered an injury. Buckley agreed to step in about six weeks ago.
When we last saw Luque last August, he was using his wrestling game to grind Rafael dos Anjos to dust in a five-round, main-event, unanimous decision win. Now, RDA should never be fighting at 170 pounds, particularly at this stage of his career, but Luque landing eight takedowns after not connecting on a single one in his prior 13 fights, a span of more than five years, was truly shocking. I certainly don't expect Luque to become Khabib Nurmagomedeov and take down the world every time out, but it's nice to know he has the ability should the situation arise.
Buckley is super inconsistent and has major durability issues, but the power is legitimate, and he enters fresh off a unanimous decision win over Alex Morono and a knockout of Andre Fialho. Now, everyone knocks out Fialho, so that's no big deal, but Morono is a gifted Muay Thai specialist, so that was a quality win for Joaquin. Buckley has zero history of defeating better competition, but he has nothing to lose by taking this fight and plenty to gain.
The RDA fight aside, Luque is a brawler. We've seen him take, and give, countless beatings over the years. I'm not buying the sudden improvement in his wrestling game, but he has eight career wins via submission and 11 via knockout. It's abundantly clear he's a better all-around mixed martial artist than Buckley, who essentially needs to land power shots in order to be successful.
Buckley is a big, strong guy. He's plenty dangerous for five-plus minutes, but his cardio is highly suspect. I think he's going to be in big trouble if he isn't able to get Luque out of there in a hurry, and with just one knockout loss in 32 pro bouts, the odds are overwhelmingly against that happening.
My guess is Vicente survives a couple hairy moments in the early going and eventually wears down a tiring Buckley with volume later on. I'd feel much better about picking Luque if this fight was five rounds instead of three, but I'm confident he gets the job done regardless.
THE PICK: Luque
Middleweight
Chris Weidman (15-7-0) v. Bruno Silva (23-10-0)
DK Salaries: Weidman ($6,900), Silva ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Weidman (+235), Silva (-290)
Weidman is universally respected and one of the best middleweights of all time, but that doesn't change the fact he has almost certainly reached the end of the line. Chris will be 40 years of age this coming June. In addition to battling multiple significant injuries, Weidman is sporting a 2-7 record in his past nine bouts. Because of all the ailments, Weidman has fought just nine times since December 2015. We last saw him last August -- his first fight in well over two years. Chris dropped a unanimous decision to Brad Tavares in that bout, a fight Weidman would and should have won going away if he had any gas left in the tank at all.
Silva isn't in much better shape. He obviously doesn't have the pedigree of Weidman and is just 1-4 in his past five bouts. The difference is that he's fought five times since March 2022, and his one victory in that span was a knockout of Tavares. I expect very little of the Brazilian moving forward, but this looks like a prime opportunity to snap a two-fight losing streak and extend his time with the company in the process.
Weidman has always had questionable durability. We have seen instances in the past where he's been essentially unable to eat a punch. He could negate those struggles at times by getting his wrestling game going, but Chris was 0-for-8 on takedowns in the Tavares fight, and it's impossible to see him generating consistent offense in a back-and-forth kickboxing match.
Silva's 73 percent takedown defense is reasonable enough, especially when you take into account seven of the eight takedowns he's allowed in the Octagon came in one fight against Andrew Sanchez back in October 2021. As previously stated, Weidman no longer possesses the athleticism or the explosiveness in the wrestling game to carry him to a win.
All told, and I hate to say it, this is a shockingly easy pick. 20 of Silva's 23 career wins have come via knockout. Weidman survived the Tavares fight because Brad has zero power. By far the most likely scenario here is that Bruno stuffs whatever token takedown attempts come his way and responds by battering Chris on the feet. I could absolutely see a scenario in which this is Weidman's last pro fight if things go poorly.
THE PICK: Silva
Middleweight
Andre Petroski (10-3-0) v. Jacob Malkoun (7-3-0)
DK Salaries: Petroski ($7,200), Malkoun ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Petroski (+180), Malkoun (-220)
This is easily one of the best fights on the entire card. I'm surprised it's not getting more attention.
It's been a long six months on the sidelines for Malkoun. The Aussie returned from an 11-month layoff last September to face Cody Brundage as upwards of a -600 favorite. He was absolutely dominating his opponent, at which point he elbowed Cody in the back of the head. Brundage made a business decision given the situation at the time, said he couldn't continue, and Malkoun was disqualified. Referee Mark Smith should have ruled the bout a no-contest, but it wasn't to be. He'll get a chance to rebound here against a much tougher opponent in Petroski.
Petroski won each of his first five UFC fights against middling competition before being tasked with facing Michel Pereira last October. He was knocked out in 66 seconds. Now, we saw what Pereira did to Michal Oleksiejczuk just last week, so there's no shame in getting obliterated by that guy, but Andre needs to put forth a better showing here against Malkoun.
There's an argument to be made that Malkoun is more reliant on his wrestling game for success than any fighter on the UFC roster. Certainly in the middleweight division. Through six UFC bouts, Malkoun is averaging an insane 7.2 takedowns per 15 minutes. Six fights is a reasonable sample size. This isn't going away. In his four fights prior to the Brundage bout, Malkoun landed 30 total takedowns, and no fewer than six in any bout. Much like Merab Dvalishvili at bantamweight, Jacob is going to send countless attempts your way, even if the first few don't land.
Now, Petroski is no slouch in the grappling department himself. He's averaging 4.48 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's not the aggressive offensive wrestler Malkoun is, but is more than capable of getting his opponent -- who is rocking a zero percent takedown defense with the UFC -- to the mat if he makes a mistake.
I think Andre is a very live underdog given his cheap price tag, but Jacob has fought better competition, and I simply feel he possesses an element of physicality that, if everything goes according plan, I think Petroski will have difficulty matching. I'll take the favorite in a close, competitive decision.
THE PICK: Malkoun
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Nursulton Ruziboev (33-8-2, 2NC) v. Sedriques Dumas (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Ruziboev ($9,200), Dumas ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Ruziboev (-270), Dumas (+220)
THE PICK: Ruziboev
Featherweight
Bill Algeo (18-7-0) v. Kyle Nelson (15-5-1)
DK Salaries: Algeo ($9,100), Nelson ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Algeo (-220), Nelson (+180)
THE PICK: Algeo
Welterweight
Chidi Njokuani (22-10-0, 1NC) v. Rhys McKee (13-5-1)
DK Salaries: Njokuani ($8,600), McKee ($7,600)
Vegas Odds; Njokuani (-150), McKee (+125)
THE PICK: Njokuani
Featherweight
Nate Landwehr (17-5-0) v. Jamall Emmers (20-7-0)
DK Salaries: Landwehr ($7,300), Emmers ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Landwehr (+170), Emmers (-205)
THE PICK: Emmers
Women's Strawweight
Virna Jandiroba (19-3-0) v. Loopy Godinez (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Jandiroba ($7,500), Godinez ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Jandiroba (+170), Godinez (-205)
THE PICK: Godinez
Featherweight
Julio Arce (18-6-0) v. Herbert Burns (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Arce ($9,500), Burns ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Arce (-455), Burns (+330)
THE PICK: Arce
Featherweight
Dennis Buzukja (11-4-0) v. Connor Matthews (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Buzukja ($8,400), Matthews ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Buzukja (-125), Matthews (+105)
THE PICK: Matthews
Light Heavyweight
Ibo Aslan (12-1-0) v. Anton Turkalj (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Aslan ($8,300), Turkalj ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Aslan (-125), Turkalj (+105)
THE PICK: Aslan
Women's Flyweight
Viktoriia Dudakova (8-0-0) v. Melissa Gatto (8-2-2)
DK Salaries: Dudakova ($7,700), Gatto ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Dudakova (+135), Gatto (-165)
THE PICK: Dudakova
Bantamweight
Angel Pacheco (7-2-0) v. Caolan Loughran (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Pacheco ($6,800), Loughran ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Pacheco (+275), Loughran (-345)
THE PICK: Loughran
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Atlantic City with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
