DraftKings MMA: UFC 197 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Light Heavyweight

Saint Preux is one of the top five or six 205-pounders in the world, but the focus of this fight will be on the returning Jones. Due to his antics away from the cage (most notably a hit-and-run incident last April), Jones hasn't fought in nearly 15 months, and he's fought just once in the last two years. For most fighters, rust would be a big concern given the time away, but Jones is such an elite athlete and all the training videos and reports have been so positive that I'm not the least bit worried that he will show up to this fight ready to go. He has been facing the best in the world for more than seven years, and outside of a hard-fought battle against Alexander Gustafsson, he has rolled through everyone put in front of him. His length and power make him impossible to defend if he is throwing repeated strikes at distance.

Saint Preux is 7-2 in his first nine UFC fights. He has looked very dominant in the wins and thoroughly mediocre in the losses. A former collegiate football player at the University of Tennessee, OSP is almost always the best athlete in the cage when he fights. That won't be the case Saturday. It's ridiculous that this fight is for an interim title after champion Daniel Cormier was forced to withdraw from the bout, but since everyone is assuming that Jones is going to win and face Cormier anyway, it gives the UFC a chance to most likely have a fight for the undisputed light heavyweight title at some point later this year.

OSP did the smart thing by taking this fight. Sure, it's highly unlikely that he will win, but he gets his name out there, he gets an immediate title shot (even if it's an interim belt) and since no one is expecting him to fare well, he has nothing to lose. Jones tends to just hammer his opponents over the course of a fight as opposed to finishing them quickly. It results in terrific performances, but as good as Jones is, and I have him as the second-best pound-for-pound fighters in the world today, his style doesn't always make him a great fantasy option. OSP is one of the better fighters in a dreary division, but I would wager that had he not accepted this fight on short notice that he would never have ended up fighting for a title in his UFC career. I just think Jones is too talented and has too good of a team behind him to lose this fight. By all accounts he has trained like a maniac during his time away, and barring some type of fluke ending, I think he wins this in a runaway and fights Cormier for the undisputed light heavyweight title late in the year. I'll be picking Jones in that fight, too.

THE PICK: Jones

Co-Main Event – Flyweight Championship

I rate Johnson as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, but he is still in a tough position. He can't find anyone to give him a challenging fight and he doesn't promote himself well (during interviews, etc.), which results in his fights doing poor ratings despite the fact he is the most technically gifted fighter in all of MMA. Trying to list Mighty Mouse's strengths is pointless because he excels in every single area. There literally isn't one thing that the guy doesn't do well. If you want to nitpick, you could say that virtually all of Johnson's fights tend to be longer, boring decisions, but he beats everyone so easily that it's hard to fault him. Johnson's last loss came against current UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz back in October 2011. He is currently riding a nine-fight winning streak and no opponent has come close to giving him a fight in more than three and a half years.

Cejudo, a former Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling, is almost certainly not ready for this opportunity (he has only 10 pro fights under his belt), but the UFC literally has no other option. On the surface, Cejudo is so big and strong for the flyweight division, and he is such a good wrestler, that he has the requisite skill set to potentially give Mighty Mouse a competitive fight. The problem is that Cejudo has never fought an opponent who is remotely close being in Johnson's class and we have zero idea what sort of shape he will be in for a five-round fight. Cejudo is a very big flyweight and has struggled to make weight in the past. He is facing a guy who could fight a 10-round fight and not blink twice.

Hardcore MMA fans should love this fight, but I doubt it will do anything for a casual watcher. The fight will almost certainly be long and, at times, boring. Cejudo was rushed into this fight due to a lack of other options, but I don't think he would have any better chance to defeat Mighty Mouse a year from now. Despite his all-world wrestling kills, Johnson's quickness and footwork figure to negate Cejudo's side and strength advantage. Upsets happen all the time in this sport, but I see little reason to think that Cejudo has any more than a 10-15 percent chance of winning. Assuming he wins, I have zero idea who challenges Johnson next. The best thing for the UFC would actually be Cejudo pulling off the upset. It's highly unlikely to happen.

THE PICK: Johnson

Lightweight

This is one of the most intriguing lightweight fights that the UFC could possibly make. Everything has gone downhill for Pettis since winning the UFC Lightweight Championship from Benson Henderson in August 2013. Numerous injuries forced him to miss over 15 months, finally returning to submit Gilbert Melendez in December 2014 in a fight that was fairly close up until the finish. That was the last time Pettis won a fight. He lost his title to Rafael dos Anjos last March, getting bombed in a decisive unanimous decision, and he most recently dropped a split decision to Eddie Alvarez in January. His effort against dos Anjos was embarrassing, but the Alvarez fight truly could have gone either way.

Barboza is 3-2 in his last five bouts, though both losses have come against elite competition in Tony Ferguson and Michael Johnson. Barboza's biggest weapon is his ability to throw devastating leg kicks from all angles. Every single opponent he faces knows that they are coming, but no one has been able to stop Barboza from landing them. Pettis has accomplished a ton in his career, especially considering he is only 29 years old, but this is pretty much a must-win fight for him, not in the sense that he would ever be cut if he loses, but there is so much quality depth at the top of the UFC's 155-pound division that his road back to another title shot would be extremely long if he suffers a third-straight loss.

Barboza's success relies on constant pressure that results in his opponents standing in front of him, which allows him to land combinations. It works against almost everyone he faces, but I am not convinced that strategy will be effective against Pettis. Showtime has made a living off his footwork and athletic ability, and if he is able to keep moving and attack Barboza from multiple angles, I think he wins this fight. Barboza's best chance is to get into a slugfest, as he has more power than Pettis and his kicks alone can turn the tide in any fight. For a little while back when he was champion, many people had Pettis ranked as a top-five pound-for-pound fighter. I wouldn't go that far, but I think he is a better fighter than Barboza and should win. Still, Barboza isn't a bad value play at his DK price.

THE PICK: Pettis

Middleweight

I have been chairman of the Robert Whittaker fan club for well over a year and the Aussie has made me look awfully smart of late. Since moving up to middleweight from welterweight in November 2014, Whittaker has scored back-to-back stoppage wins over Clint Hester and Brad Tavares and most recently, a unanimous decision win over Uriah Hall in November. Whittaker is very aggressive on the feet, but he has become a smarter fighter over the past couple of years. He takes his time when he has his opponent hurt and he rarely gets caught in a compromising position. His submission game has long been underrated and he is a better wrestler than he gets credit for.

I can't deny that he has won four fights in a row, but I am not much of a Natal supporter. A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt under Renzo Gracie, Natal has all-world ground skills, but he has shown a questionable chin in the past and I don't see any way that he can beat Whittaker in a kickboxing match. I would be willing to listen if someone cared to make the case that Natal deserves an opportunity on the main card of a pay-per-view, but facing Whittaker is a lot different than going up against Chris Camozzi, Tom Watson and Kevin Casey, who have been three of Natal's last four opponents. While I think we have seen the best that Natal has to offer, I still believe that Whittaker has another level he can go. Whittaker won't turn 26 until December, and he is still finding his way at middleweight. I truly wouldn't be surprised if Whittaker finds himself as a top-five ranked middleweight by the end of the year. I think he is that good and I fully expect him to cruise past Natal.

THE PICK: Whittaker

Featherweight

At 23, Rodriguez has been viewed as one of the best prospects in all of MMA for quite some time. He is 3-0 in the UFC, though all three victories have come via decision. Rodriguez is a superb athlete who has a black belt in Taekwondo and no obvious weaknesses in his game. His game has improved every single time we have seen him in the octagon and there is no reason to think that trend won't continue Saturday.

Two years ago, Fili was on the same career path as Rodriguez is now. Fili was given a spot on the main card of a pay-per-view against Max Holloway in April 2014, and he was completely schooled before finally being submitted late in Round 3. Since then, Fili is 2-1, with victories over Felipe Arantes and Gabriel Benitez and a loss to Godofredo Pepey. Fili is only 25, so he too is young enough to make significant adjustments on a fight-to-fight basis. Fili looked like a potential star at one point, much like Rodriguez does now, but his stock has taken a dive. The best result for the UFC would be a dominant win for Rodriguez. Not that they want to bury Fili by any means, but it's quite clear that Rodriguez is the far superior prospect at this point; he is also young enough that Dana White and Joe Silva can take it easy with him for the next year or so and allow him to gain a strong fan following. His style of fighting is very fan-friendly, and he is very charismatic. Rodriguez could be a potential superstar and the UFC would be smart to take it easy with him, even if/when he does roll through Fili.

THE PICK: Rodriguez

Other Fights

Flyweight

Welterweight

Women's Strawweight

Lightweight

Heavyweight

Light Heavyweight

Lightweight