DraftKings MMA: UFC Fight Night 91 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC Fight Night 91 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

The UFC conquers South Dakota in a rare mid-week card in Sioux Falls.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Bantamweight

Michael McDonald (17-3-0) v. John Lineker (27-7-0)
DraftKings Salaries: McDonald ($9,700), Lineker ($9,900)
Vegas Odds: McDonald (+155), Lineker (-175)

An injury to Michael Chiesa resulted in this bout being moved up the card to main event status. It's a solid fight, but it probably shouldn't be headlining a UFC event in 2016. McDonald returned in January, after more than two years away from the sport, to submit an overmatched Masanori Kanehara. Mayday dealt with several injuries during his time away, most notably a serious wrist issue. McDonald has a lot of experience against top competition for a 25-year-old kid. Lineker has won four fights in a row and eight of his last nine. He has had a ton of issues making the 126-pound flyweight limit in the past, but he has done much better at bantamweight, which is where this fight is going to take place. Lineker's entire offense is based off his massive punching power. It's mind boggling that a man who stands 5-foot-3 can generate so much velocity with his strikes. McDonald is the taller, rangier fighter, and he has the better ground game of the two men, so if this is a grappling match, he should have the advantage. Lineker will undoubtedly attempt to turn the fight into a kickboxing match, but I would be surprised if McDonald stood around and allowed that to happen. Mayday has a high fight IQ, which is one of the reasons I'm not concerned that he has missed so much time of late. Lineker has the power to knockout any 135-pounder in the world. If he connects cleanly, McDonald is going down. Still, I think McDonald's smarts in the cage, and his athletic ability, are the reasons that he will prevail here (provided, of course, that he is 100 percent healthy). Lineker is not the type of guy anyone with nagging injuries wants to fight.

THE PICK: McDonald

Co-Main Event – Lightweight

Tony Ferguson (21-3-0) v. Landon Vannata (8-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Ferguson ($11,500), Vannata ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Ferguson (-750), Vannata (+525)

It's difficult to break down what figures to be such a lopsided co-main event. In the last four months, Ferguson has been scheduled to face Michael Johnson, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Chiesa. Instead, Ferguson's first fight since December will come against the debuting Vannata. Ferguson has won seven fights in a row and 13 of his last 14 overall. He will soon be fighting for either the UFC Lightweight Championship, or in a number one contender's eliminator bout. This fight is eerily similar to when Nurmagomedov fought Darrell Horcher in April. It figures to be a massacre from the opening bell, but Ferguson could use the cage time and payday after nearly seven months off, and this is far from a deep card. Vannata is undefeated as a pro at 8-0, but he has spent his entire career fighting nobodies in organizations that no one has ever heard of. Trying to analyze what to expect from Vannata would be foolish. I would be shocked if he is anything other than completely and thoroughly overwhelmed. My guess is that Ferguson eventually fights Nurmagomedov before 2016 comes to an end.

THE PICK: Ferguson

Middleweight

Tim Boestch (18-10-0) v. Josh Samman (12-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Boetsch ($8,800), Samman ($10,600)
Vegas Odds: Boetsch (+190), Samman (-230)

MMA is not a sport for older, aging fighters, and I have always been a vocal critic of competitors who should clearly be stepping aside, yet choose to continue to fight. Boetsch is right at the top of the list in that regard. He has lost three fights in a row and six of his last eight overall dating back to December 2012. The last two setbacks have come at the hands of Ed Herman and Dan Henderson, two guys who aren't exactly lighting the world on fire these days. Boetsch has always been a solid all-around fighter, but at age 35, he simply doesn't have the speed or athletic ability to compete with better fighters. Samman ran off three straight stoppage wins upon entering the UFC in April 2013, before being submitted by Tamdan McCrory in his last fight in December. He is tall, lean, and a freak athlete for a man his size. Samman possesses an explosiveness that Boetsch could only dream of at this point in his career. I wouldn't be surprised if Samman found himself in the back half of the top ten of the UFC's middleweight division at some point. He is certainly talented enough. It takes far less than that to beat Boetsch these days, however. If "The Barbarian" gets waxed once again, one can only hope that he willingly steps aside. If not, expect UFC President Dana White to intervene. Dan Henderson should also be retiring, but at least he puts fans in the seats, so there is at least a legitimate reason that the UFC brass allows him to hang around. Boestch doesn't possess that ability.

THE PICK: Samman

Flyweight

Louis Smolka (10-1-0) v. Ben Nguyen (15-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Smolka ($9,800), Nguyen ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Smolka (+100), Nguyen (-120)

This is a pretty rough card, but this is an underrated fight. Smolka is 4-1 in the UFC, with the one loss being a split decision setback against Chris Cariaso. He is tall (5-foot-9) for the flyweight division and he is adept to using his long limbs to his advantage in the submission game. Nguyen started his career just 7-5, but he is currently riding a nine-fight winning streak and he hasn't lost since August 2010. Both of these fighters throw a ton of strikes on the feet and they land at a similar rate, but Nguyen's standup defense is a bit better. The key to this fight is going to be Smolka's ability to use his wrestling skills. He lands nearly two takedowns per fight, but Nguyen's takedown defense (75 percent) has always been very good. This figures to be a close fight, but I like Nguyen, who was born and raised in Sioux Falls and now fights out of Brisbane, Australia. He should have a significant home field advantage.

THE PICK: Nguyen

Other Bouts


Heavyweight

Aleksei Oleinik (50-9-1) v. Daniel Olmielanczuk (18-5-1, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Oleinik ($10,800), Olmielanczuk ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Oleinik (-220), Olmielanczuk (+180)
THE PICK: Oleinik

Welterweight

Kyle Noke (22-8-1) v. Keita Nakamura (31-7-2, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Noke ($10,400), Nakamura ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Noke (-175), Nakamura (+155)
THE PICK: Noke

Women's Bantamweight

Lauren Murphy (9-2-0) v. Katlyn Chookagian (7-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Murphy ($10,100), Chookagian ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Murphy (-190), Chookagian (+165)
THE PICK: Murphy

Middleweight

Sam Alvey (25-8-0, 1NC) v. Eric Spicely (8-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Alvey ($11,000), Spicely ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Alvey (-255), Spicely (+215)
THE PICK: Alvey

Women's Strawweight

Cortney Casey (4-3-0) v. Cristina Stanciu (5-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries:Casey ($9,200), Stanciu ($10,200)
Vegas Odds: Casey (+135), Stanciu (-155)
THE PICK: Casey

Lightweight

Scott Holtzman (8-1-0) v. Cody Pfister (12-5-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Holtzman ($10,700), Pfister ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Holtzman (-320), Pfister (+260)
THE PICK: Holtzman

Bantamweight

Rani Yahya (21-8-0, 1NC) v. Matthew Lopez (8-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Yahya ($10,000), Lopez ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Yahya (-105), Lopez (-115)
THE PICK: Lopez

Middleweight

Alex Nicholson (6-2-0) v. Devin Clark (6-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Nicholson ($8,500), Clark ($10,900)
Vegas Odds: Nicholson (+190), Clark (-230)
THE PICK: Clark

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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