DraftKings MMA: UFC Tampa Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC Tampa Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

Update: The Machida/Henderson bout has been scratched from this card after Machida admitted to a violation of the UFC Anti-Doping Policy. You can see the statement from the UFC here.

More than one future UFC Hall of Famer will hope to extend their career as a massive card heads to Tampa this Saturday.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Light Heavyweight

Glover Teixeira (24-4-0) v. Rashad Evans (24-4-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Teixeira ($10,300), Evans ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Teixeira (-220), Evans (+180)

The scheduled main event between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson was such a highly anticipated fight that virtually any another replacement main event fight would pale in comparison, but this one is especially mediocre. Both Evans and Teixeira are 36 years old, and while Teixeira has racked up a couple of respectable wins lately over Patrick Cummins and Ovince St. Preux, Evans hasn't won a fight since November 2013. Of course, it must be noted, that Evans has been injured for the majority of that time frame. Both men have made their living due to the wrestling abilities (Evans has averaged 3.17 takedowns per-fight during his time in the UFC, while Teixeira has averaged 2.63), but it's fair to wonder if either man has lost a bit of that ability due to their age. Teixeira should have more power in his hands, but I'm not sure it will make much of a difference. I am expecting this to be a long, drawn out fight. I could easily see it being boring at times and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it ends up going to a decision. Considering the injury history of Evans of late, I don't know how you can pick him to win. It's very possible that the multiple knee surgeries that Evans underwent last year have zapped him of the majority of his athleticism. Teixeira has certainly had a couple of dreadful performances in his own right (most notably in his failed attempt to win the light heavyweight title from Jon Jones in April 2014), but he has been able to stay healthy for the majority of his UFC career. Both the odds and DK salaries here seem about right to me. At one point, Evans was one of the better fighters in the world at any weight class, but he hasn't done anything of note anytime recently, and I can't pick him against a quality opponent until he does.

THE PICK: Teixeira

Co-Main Event – Middleweight

Lyoto Machida (22-7-0) v. Dan Henderson (31-14-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Machida ($11,000), Henderson ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Machida (-355), Henderson (+295)

This is another fight between two future hall-of-famers, both of which are nearly at the end of the line. Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero have destroyed Machida in back-to-back fights, and he has just one win on his record dating back to February 2014. Henderson is 2-6 in his last eight fights, and for a guy who was known for having a terrific chin in the prime of his career, he has been finished in four of those six losses. As bad as Machida has looked of late, I don't think there's any doubt that the 45-year-old Henderson has less in the tank at this point. Hendo never struck me as the type of fighter who knew when to walk away and unfortunately that has been the case. Every Henderson fight for the last three or four years has consisted of exactly the same thing: him hoping to land one of his patented "H-Bomb" right hands, and most often failing. Technically, Henderson has a chance to win every fight he is in because of his power, but he telegraphs his shots at his advanced age and he is unable to avoid strikes from his opponents. I am not a big Machida fan at this point in his career, but it would be a tragedy if he didn't have enough left in the tank to beat Henderson. Machida's unorthodox style of striking should work well against an opponent that can't cut off angles anymore. UFC President Dana White is pretty good about getting older, washed up fighters to "retire" as opposed to eventually having to release them, but Henderson has shown no signs of wanting to step away. Machida would probably get a final shot with the company even if he loses, but the calls for Henderson to step away would be massive if he comes up short. From a DraftKings point of view, there are always worse plays than putting Henderson in your lineup and praying he connects with a huge right hand early, but the odds of that happening are getting smaller and smaller.  A pro since June 2007, I could see Hendo eventually ending up headlining one of Bellator's tent pole events if the UFC eventually decides to cut ties. Machida is clearly fading fast, but his last three losses are against the current UFC middleweight champion in Rockhold, a former middleweight champion in Chris Weidman and Romero, who is a top-five 185-pounder when he isn't busy being suspended. I think Machida has enough gas left in the tank here to get this done.
THE PICK: Machida

Catchweight (160 pounds)

Khabib Nurmagomedov (22-0-0) v. Darrell Horcher (12-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Nurmagomedov ($11,400), Horcher ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Nurmagomedov (-1050), Horcher (+550)

This fight is simply about keeping Khabib fresh. He has missed so much time with injuries the last few years that both the UFC brass and Khabib's management team felt he would be better served to remain on the card against a lesser opponent. Assuming he easily dispatches Horcher and can do so without getting injured, the move makes a lot of sense. Nurmagomedov has fought just once in the last two and a half years -- a dominant unanimous decision win over current UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos back in April 2014. I am of the mind that had he been able to remain healthy the last 24 months, that Khabib would be champion right now. As strange as it sounds, taking this fight was actually a pretty smart decision by Horcher. Sure, he's almost certainly going to get embarrassed on national television by one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, but he will get respect from both fans and UFC management as a guy who is willing to face a stone-cold killer on roughly two weeks notice, and even when he loses, Horcher will certainly be guaranteed another fight with the company against a more reasonable opponent. A quick, dominant win from Khabib works out well for everyone. If he can somehow avoid the injury bug, he still has a chance to be a champion before 2016 is through.
THE PICK: Nurmagomedov

Women's Strawweight

Rose Namajunas (5-2-0) v. Tecia Torres (7-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Namajunas ($10,200), Torres ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Namajunas (-225), Torres (+185)

I have always been a little light on Namajunas, but she proved in her last fight against Paige VanZant in December that she has the tools to easily handle a highly touted prospect. She's a top-five strawweight any way you cut it. This is a rematch of a fight that took place in Invicta in July 2013 that was won by Torres via unanimous decision. All four of Rose's career wins have come via submission, and she should have an advantage on the mat. She is the taller and lankier of the two women, something that could help her if she is able to grab a hold of one of Torres' limbs. Torres' biggest advantage will be her kickboxing abilities and her strength. Despite her diminutive size, they don't call her The Tiny Tornado for nothing. Although she has a perfect pro record, all of Tecia's wins have come via unanimous decision. She wins with pressure and technique as opposed to power. My guess is that this fight will go the distance. Namajunas has shown an ability to finish fights, but Torres has always been very durable. Torres has yet to have a career-defining moment in her first three UFC bouts, but she won all three handily. There is no denying that Namajunas looked great against PVZ, but Paige is still more style than substance at this point in her career. This fight is a pick-em for me. I don't think either of these ladies is quite on the level of current UFC women's strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk or top contender Claudia Gadelha, but they are both right at the top of the next tier. The winner of this fight (especially if it's Rose) is likely looking at a title shot. Given the salary and odds, I tend to favor Torres, but it's close. One can make an argument either way for this fight.
THE PICK: Torres

Featherweight

Cub Swanson (21-7-0) v. Hacran Dias (23-3-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Swanson ($9,800), Dias ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Swanson (-125), Dias (+105)

It has been a rough year and a half for Cub. Following a six-fight winning streak in which he defeated the likes of Charles Oliveira, Dustin Poirier and Jeremy Stephens, Swanson was hoping for a featherweight title shot. Instead he was given a title-eliminator fight against an elite fighter in Frankie Edgar and he was dominated for five rounds before tapping out with just four seconds left in the bout. He returned last April in Newark and was submitted once again, this time by Max Holloway. People forget how good Swanson is because he lost back-to-back fights against two of the best fighters in the world. He's a darn good fighter, albeit one who is now at least three major wins away from getting back in the title picture. A talented submission artist, Dias is 2-2 in his last four fights and is coming off a split decision win over Levan Makashvili last June. At age 31, it's probably unrealistic to expect significant improve on a fight-by-fight basis, but Dias trains with an elite team in Nova Uniao and he is a legitmate black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Cub is a darn good submission fighter in his own right, but Dias should have the advantage on the ground. I think the difference in this fight will be Swanson's striking ability. He showed a vicious mean streak during his six-fight run, but he got away from that in the Edgar and Holloway fights. Part of that was due to the fact he was facing elite competition, but he should be able to get back to that style of fighting against Dias. At age 32, this is probably Cub's last chance to make a significant run in the UFC. I doubt he would be released if he loses, but it is hard to tell that the UFC brass is thinking regarding each individual fighter these days. I think Swanson is a value play at his DK salary. He has a lot to lose here and in a vacuum, he is a far better all-around fighter than Dias.
THE PICK: Swanson

Other Bouts


Lightweight

Beneil Dariush (12-1-0) v. Michael Chiesa (13-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries:Dariush ($10,000), Chiesa ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Dariush (-160), Chiesa (+140)
THE PICK: Dariush

Women's Bantamweight

Bethe Correia (9-1-0) v. Raquel Pennington (6-6-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Correia ($9,500), Pennington ($9,900)
Vegas Odds: Correia (+150), Pennington (-170)
THE PICK: Correia

Welterweight

Court McGee (18-4-0) v. Santiago Ponzinibbio (22-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: McGee ($9,300), Ponzinibbio ($10,100)
Vegas Odds: McGee (+125), Ponzinibbio (-170)
THE PICK: McGee

Bantamweight

John Dodson (18-7-0) v. Manny Gamburyan (18-9-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Dodson ($11,200), Gamburyan ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Dodson (-525), Gamburyan (+415)
THE PICK: Dodson

Welterweight

Randy Brown (7-0-0) v. Michael Graves (5-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries:Brown ($10,400) Graves ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Brown (-105), Graves (-125)
THE PICK: Brown

Lightweight

Drew Dober (16-7-0, 1NC) v. Islam Makhachev (12-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Dober ($8,800), Makhachev ($10,600)
Vegas Odds: Dober (+165), Makhachev (-205)
THE PICK: Makhachev

Middleweight

Oluwale Bamgbose (6-1-0) v. Cezar Ferreira (9-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Bamgbose ($10,500), Ferreira ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Bamgbose (-180), Ferreira (+150)
THE PICK: Bamgbose

Welterweight

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (14-5-0) v. Omari Akhmedov (15-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Zaleski dos Santos ($9,700), Akhmedov ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Zaleski dos Santos (+135), Akhmedov (-165)
THE PICK: Akhmedov

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MMA Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MMA fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
UFC Macau Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC Macau Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC Macau Yan vs. Figueiredo DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes
UFC Macau Yan vs. Figueiredo DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes
MMA Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for UFC Macau
MMA Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for UFC Macau
DraftKings MMA: UFC Macau DFS Preview
DraftKings MMA: UFC Macau DFS Preview
UFC 309 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC 309 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
Fight IQ: UFC 309 Preview, Jones vs. Miocic
Fight IQ: UFC 309 Preview, Jones vs. Miocic