DraftKings MMA: UFC Fight Night 85 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC Fight Night 85 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

Two of the most popular heavyweights in UFC history get the headlining spot on Saturday night in Brisbane, Australia.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Heavyweight

Mark Hunt (11-10-1) v. Frank Mir (18-10-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Hunt ($10,300), Mir ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Hunt (-170), Mir (+150)

Mir's vicious back-to-back KO wins over Bigfoot Silva and Todd Duffee in February and July 2015 seem like decades ago. There was talk of Mir potentially getting one more shot at the UFC heavyweight title, but those plans went out the window when he looked dreadful in a unanimous decision loss to Andrei Arlovski in September. Mir has such a decorated jiu-jitsu game that it's doubtful he's lost any of his ability to finish fights via submission. The problem is that he gets hit too much on the feet and has been unable to put himself in the necessary positions to get a fight to the mat in order to play to his strengths. The story of Hunt never has, and never will change. Hunt's career record is barely over .500, but he has spent the last three years or so fighting the best in the world. Hunt's last seven fights have come against current champion Fabricio Werdum, Stipe Miocic, Roy Nelson, Junior Dos Santos, Stefan Struve and Silva (2x). Hunt is a better athlete than his frame would lead you to believe, but he certainly isn't going to be winning fights due to his speed and movement. Hunt's game is based upon his constant striking pressure, the power in his hands and most importantly, his ability to take a beating. There may not be a single man on earth who can take a punch to the face as well as Mark Hunt. I am a bit afraid to see what this fight would look like if it gets into the later rounds, but the first ten minutes or so should be extremely entertaining. Mir has power in his hands, but the odds of him finishing Hunt quickly with one huge shot are very slim. I like Hunt to win this one and while Mir certainly shouldn't be written off completely, but any victory he may obtain seems likely to come later in the fight -- something you're trying to avoid when setting your DK lineup. There is a huge difference between finishing Duffee in 73 seconds and trying to finish a guy like Hunt, who has proven he can get run over by a Mack truck and still get up.

THE PICK: Hunt

Co-Main Event – Welterweight

Hector Lombard (35-4-1, 1NC) v. Neil Magny (17-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Lombard ($9,600), Magny ($9,800)
Vegas Odds: Lombard (+110), Magny (-130)

By the time Lombard steps into the cage on Saturday, it will be more than 14 months in between fights. That is the result of a year-long suspension after he tested positive for performance enhancing drugs following a win over Josh Burkman in January 2015. That result was changed to a no-contest, and the forced time on the sidelines has torpedoed Lombard's attempts to rise to the top of the welterweight division. A decorated judo specialist and wrestler, the biggest challenge that Lombard faces these days is his inactivity, and the fact he is already 38 years old. On Lombard's side if the fact that he is a terrific athlete and the fact that he trains with arguably the best group of guys in the world in American Top Team. Magny's UFC career has been a rousing success. He has performed far better than anyone could have expected. Magny is 9-1 in his last ten fights and he has victories in that span over talented opponents such as Kelvin Gastelum, Erick Silva and Tim Means. Yet, despite the recent success, this appears to be a poor matchup for Magny. The only time in the UFC that he really looked foolish was against Demian Maia, a ground specialist who had zero problems controlling Magny on the mat for long periods of time. Lombard has the skill set to do the same. Unless Lombard is really out of form from all the time off, he should win this fight fairly easily. It's worth noting that Magny has repeatedly defeated better fighters who on the surface it appeared would give him trouble, but he looked so bad in the Maia fight, it is a huge concern that he is facing someone who has the skill set to fight similarly. Magny is probably maxed out in regards to him beating better fighters.
THE PICK: Lombard

Lightweight

Jake Matthews (9-1-0) v. Johnny Case (22-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Matthews ($9,700), Case ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Matthews (-105), Case (-115)

This bout between two of the best young lightweights in the world isn't getting much mainstream press, but it is the most intriguing fight on the entire card. At age-21, Matthews has long been viewed as one of the brightest 155-pound prospects around. He suffered his first career loss against the underrated James Vick last May, but he rebounded to hammer Akbarh Arreola in November. Matthews is very physically strong for the lightweight division, and it also helps that he will be fighting in his home country. Every single one of Matthews 10 career bouts has come in either Australia or New Zealand. A very talented ground specialist, the long-term potential of Matthews is off the charts. Case, however, is no pushover. Case is 4-0 in his UFC career, with his last win coming over the tough Yan Cabral in Brazil in early November. Case is another fighter who makes his living with a solid, all-around game. He doesn't quite have the name recognition that Matthews does at this point in his career, but he continues to put on solid performances and he has proven that he has multiple ways to win a fight. Unfortunately for Case, Matthews has three things going for him that should swing this fight in his favor. First, he tends to get hit less on the feet. Second, he has better takedown defense. In fact, Matthews has never once been taken down in his early UFC career. And most importantly, and I say this frequently, I tend to heavily favor the fighter who doesn't have to travel to the other side of the world to make it to the arena. This is a legitimately close fight, as both the odds and DK salaries indicate. The skills of these two fighters lend be to believe that this fight could go the distance. While both Matthews and Case are talented athletes, neither is known for their quick finishes. There is zero doubt that Matthews has the higher ceiling of the two fighters, but as things stand now, these two are evenly matched. Yet, when combining the fact he is fighting at home with the idea that he appears to have more room for growth on a fight-by-fight basis, Matthews becomes by pick.
THE PICK: Matthews

Middleweight

Dan Kelly (10-1-0) v. Antonio Carlos Junior (6-1-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Kelly ($8,300), Carlos Junior ($11,100)
Vegas Odds: Kelly (+400), Carlos Junior (-500)

He has only been with the company roughly 18 months, but Carlos Junior has already had a memorable career. He won The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 at heavyweight, defeating the very talented Vitor Miranda in the final. He then dropped to light heavyweight and dropped a clear unanimous decision to Patrick Cummins in December 2014. Realizing that he was struggling at 205 pounds, Carlos Junior smartly made the move down to middleweight and his career has since taken off. He easily dispatched fellow Ultimate Fighter winner Eddie Gordon in June and then a December fight against Kevin Casey was ruled a no-contest after just 11 seconds (Casey suffered an accidental eye poke). The Brazilian looks healthy and comfortable at 185 pounds, which is scary considering his Ultimate Fighter: Brazil win came at heavyweight. UFC fans will be hard-pressed to find a middleweight who can match the strength of Carlos Junior. Kelly, a former Olympian for his native Australia, is best known for his judo skills. It is the only area in which Kelly will have a significant advantage in this fight. At age 38, Kelly has limited MMA experience, although he is 3-1 in his brief UFC career. Carlos Junior will represent by far his toughest challenge. Kelly isn't known for his striking power and he figures to have a difficult time dragging the Brazilian to the mat on a regular basis. Kelly is giving up an awful lot of strength to Carlos Junior and the fact he is 13 years his elder also doesn't help matters. Kelly will undoubtedly get an extra boost from the Australian fans, but it is extremely difficult to see him winning this fight. His only clear advantage is in the grappling game, and that figures to be negated by the fact Carlos Junior is so much stronger. As long as the Brazilian has a healthy weight cut, he should win this fight fairly easily.
THE PICK: Carllos Junior

Other Bouts


Middleweight

James Te Huna (18-8-0) v. Steve Bosse (10-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Te Huna ($10,500), Bosse ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Te Huna (-255), Bosse (+215)
THE PICK: Te Huna

Women's Strawweight

Bec Rawlings (5-4-0) v. Seo Hee Ham (16-6-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Rawlings ($9,500), Ham ($9,900)
Vegas Odds: Rawlings (+105), Ham (-125)
THE PICK: Rawlings

Welterweight

Brendan O'Reilly (6-1-1) v. Alan Jouban (12-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: O'Reilly ($8,200), Jouban ($11,200)
Vegas Odds: O'Reilly (+385), Jouban (-485)
THE PICK: Jouban

Featherweight

Dan Hooker (13-6-0) v. Mark Eddiva (6-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Hooker ($10,600), Eddiva ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Hooker (-200), Eddiva (+170)
THE PICK: Hooker

Women's Bantamweight

Leslie Smith (7-6-1) v. Rin Nakai (16-1-1)
DraftKings Salaries:Smith ($10,400), Nakai ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Smith (-160), Nakai (+140)
THE PICK: Smith

Welterweight

Richard Walsh (9-4-0) v. Viscardi Andrade (18-7-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Walsh ($9,400), Andrade ($10,000)
Vegas Odds: Walsh (-110), Andrade (-110)
THE PICK: Walsh

Lightweight

Ross Pearson (20-10-0, 1NC) v. Chad Laprise (11-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Pearson ($9,300), Laprise ($10,100)
Vegas Odds: Pearson (+100), Laprise (-120)
THE PICK: Erosa

Lightweight

Alan Patrick (12-1-0) v. Damien Brown (15-8-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Patrick ($10,800), Brown ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Patrick (-250), Brown (+210)
THE PICK: Patrick

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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