DraftKings MMA: UFC Fight Night 83 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC Fight Night 83 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

One of the UFC's most popular fighters moves up to the welterweight division in Sunday's main event from Pittsburgh.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Welterweight

Donald Cerrone (28-6-0, 1NC) v. Alex Oliveira (13-2-1, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Cerrone ($10,600), Oliveira ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Cerrone (-300), Oliveira (+250)

This fight was originally supposed to be Cerrone vs. Tim Means, but Means was yanked after he failed a USADA-administered drug test. I felt there were better options than Oliveira as a late-notice replacement (Kevin Lee, for one), but this is still a pretty decent fight. Cerrone was blitzed in his lightweight title fight against Rafael dos Anjos in December, but I think that was more a case of RDA being on a dominant roll as opposed to anything Cerrone did wrong. Cowboy keeps himself in such great shape that I don't think the move up to welterweight for this fight will have any impact at all. Much like Cerrone, Oliveira regularly takes fights on short notice and generally seems comfortable without a full training camp under his belt. He can struggle in ground exchanges, but it seems likely that Cerrone will be more than willing to stand and trade with him. To say that Cowboy will be Oliveira's biggest UFC test would be a gross understatement. Cerrone struggled with the power of RDA, but I would be shocked if Oliveira was able to continuously pressure him backwards on the fight like dos Anjos did. The fact this is a five-round fight also figures to favor Cerrone. MMA fans can count on one hand the fighters in the UFC who show up to their fights in better shape than Cowboy on a regular basis. Even at his lower DK salary and his favorable Vegas odds, I don't see Oliveira as much of a value play. He has no clear path to victory in this fight.

THE PICK: Cerrone

Co-Main Event – Middleweight

Derek Brunson (14-3-0) v. Roan Carneiro (20-9-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Brunson ($11,100), Carneiro ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Brunson (-400), Carneiro (+325)

No one ever talks about Brunson as being a legitimate threat in the middleweight division, but he's really good. His only two losses since August 2012 have come against Jacare Souza and Yoel Romero. Overall, Brunson is working on a three-fight winning streak, with his last two wins coming via first-round TKO/KO. He's a terrific athlete and has very quick hands. Combine that with his top-flight wrestling ability, and Brunson is one of the more underrated fighters in the game today. Carneiro quickly submitted Mark Munoz in 100 seconds last February -- his first UFC fight in six-plus years. Munoz has since retired, so that should give fans a bit of an idea how easy of an opponent he was for Carneiro on that night. Carneiro is a brilliant ground specialist (half of his 20 career wins are via submission), but he is going to struggle to match the speed of Brunson on the feet. Unlike Oliveira, at least Carneiro has a path to victory in this fight, but I don't see how he wins unless Brunson gets sloppy in an exchange on the ground. He has virtually no chance in winning a kickboxing match. This card lacks many strong underdog value plays, so I think there are worse ideas than putting Carneiro in your lineup and praying he somehow gets a hold of one of Brunson's limbs.
THE PICK: Brunson

Featherweight

Dennis Bermudez (15-5-0) v. Tatsuya Kawajiri (35-8-2)
DraftKings Salaries: Bermudez ($10,800), Kawajiri ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Bermudez (-340), Kawajiri (+280)

Bermudez has now lost back-to-back fights (against Jeremy Stephens and Ricardo Lamas) following his seven-fight winning streak. Bermudez looked good in the Lamas fight before he was caught and submitted, and the Stephens fight was an epic back-and-forth affair in which Stephens was literally the last man standing. The bottom line is that Bermudez remains one of the better 145-pounders in the world. Kawajiri has quietly won eight of his last nine fights, but virtually all of those victories have come against subpar competition. The 37-year-old Kawajiri is pretty much a ground-and-pound specialist at this point in his career. He relies in dragging his opponents to the mat and trying to beat them up. The chances of Kawajiri winning a boxing match against Bermudez are minuscule. The problem here is that Bermudez is a brilliant wrestler and has a 92.8 percent takedown defense in his UFC career. If Kawajiri is able to spend a lot of this fight in top position, I supposed he has a chance to ride out a decision, but the odds of that happening seem small. Bermudez is a fairly heavy favorite, and deservedly so.
THE PICK: Bermudez

Middleweight

Chris Camozzi (22-10-0) v. Joe Riggs (41-16-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Camozzi ($10,500), Riggs ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Camozzi (-265), Riggs (+225)

To be perfectly honest, a fight between Camozzi and Riggs shouldn't be on the main portion of a UFC card at this point in their careers, but this is the kind of thing that happens when a company runs shows on a near-weekly basis. A five-fight losing streak from May 2013 to April 2015 led to Camozzi being released by the UFC, but he was re-hired just four months later when he agreed to take on Jacare Souza on extremely short notice. To nobody's surprise, Camozzi found himself tapping out less than three minutes into the fight. He then rebounded to win his last fight against Tom Watson via unanimous decision last August. Riggs returned to the UFC in December 2014 after nearly five years away from the promotion. Riggs lost his first two back against Ben Saunders and Patrick Cote, but he too is coming off a win -- a DQ victory over Ron Stallings in September. It's not much, but Riggs needs to take what he can get at this point. Camozzi is nearly four years younger and he has far less MMA miles under his belt, but he isn't good enough to be such a large favorite over anyone at this point in his career. I would stay away from this fight if I could, but Riggs would be my pick since he would provide a bigger payoff.
THE PICK: Riggs

Other Bouts


Bantamweight

Cody Garbrandt (7-0-0) v. Augusto Mendes (5-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Garbrandt ($11,000), Mendes ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Garbrandt (-340), Mendes (+280)
THE PICK: Garbrandt

Lightweight

James Krause (22-7-0) v. Shane Campbell (12-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Krause ($10,100), Campbell ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Krause (-150), Campbell (+130)
THE PICK: Krause

Welterweight

Alex Garcia (13-2-0) v. Sean Strickland (16-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Garcia ($9,500), Strickland ($9,900)
Vegas Odds: Garcia (+100), Strickland (-120)
THE PICK: Garcia

Middleweight

Daniel Sarafian (10-5-0) v. Oluwale Bamgbose (5-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Sarafian ($10,400), Bamgbose ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Sarafian (-190), Bamgbose (+165)
THE PICK: Sarafian

Middleweight

Anthony Smith (24-11-0) v. Leonardo Augusto (11-1-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Smith ($10,200), Augusto ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Smith (-150), Augusto (+130)
THE PICK: Augusto

Welterweight

Jonavin Webb (8-1-0) v. Nathan Coy (14-6-0)
DraftKings Salaries:Webb ($10,700), Coy ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Webb (-245), Coy (+205)
THE PICK: Webb

Women's Bantamweight

Marion Reneau (6-2-0) v. Ashlee Evans-Smith (3-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Reneau ($10,300), Evans-Smith ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Reneau (-175), Evans-Smith (+155)
THE PICK: Evans-Smith

Women's Bantamweight

Lauren Murphy (8-2-0) v. Kelly Faszholz (3-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Murphy ($10,900), Faszholz ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Murphy (-330), Faszholz (+270)
THE PICK: Murphy

Heavyweight

Anthony Hamilton (14-4-0) v. Shamil Abdurakhimov (15-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Hamilton ($9,600), Abdurakhimov ($9,800)
Vegas Odds: Hamilton (-105), Abdurakhimov (-115)
THE PICK: Abdurakhimov

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MMA Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MMA fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
UFC Macau Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC Macau Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC Macau Yan vs. Figueiredo DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes
UFC Macau Yan vs. Figueiredo DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes
MMA Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for UFC Macau
MMA Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for UFC Macau
DraftKings MMA: UFC Macau DFS Preview
DraftKings MMA: UFC Macau DFS Preview
UFC 309 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC 309 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
Fight IQ: UFC 309 Preview, Jones vs. Miocic
Fight IQ: UFC 309 Preview, Jones vs. Miocic