DraftKings MMA: UFC 195 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC 195 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

The welterweight title is on the line from Vegas as the UFC kicks off 2016 with a bang.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Welterweight Championship

(C) Robbie Lawler (26-10-0, 1NC) v. Carlos Condit (30-8-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Lawler ($9,800), Condit ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Lawler (-120), Condit (+100)

It's the first card of the 2016, but it wouldn't be a shock to see this fight on the list of contenders for Fight of the Year when all is said and done. This is going to be a battle between two elite fighters who love to strike. Lawler has turned his career around like no fighter in the past. The 33-year-old has won seven of his last eight fights, and included in that stretch are wins over Rory MacDonald (twice), Johny Hendricks, Matt Brown and Jake Ellenberger. Lawler long seemed like an athlete who would never reach his full potential, but he has been a different fighter since moving to American Top Team in 2013. With one of the better camps in the world in his corner, Lawler's striking game has improved, as has his defense and consistency. He's always had his trademark massive power. The only real concern I have about Lawler these days is that he does little other than strike. He was taken down five times in his win over Hendricks. That really isn't Condit's game, but it's something to keep in mind. Condit's best chance to win this fight should be via submission. All of Condit's 13 career wins are by submission, and he is going to have a clear-cut advantage if this fight ends up on the ground. Normally I would also give Condit an advantage due to the fact he has Greg Jackson in his corner (look what Jackson did with Holly Holm), but Lawler is going to come into this fight just as prepared. Long over the torn ACL that he suffered in his fight against Tyron Woodley in March of 2014, I expected Condit to be extremely motivated in what will likely be his last chance to regain UFC gold. I wouldn't be surprised if either guy won, but I'm leaning towards Lawler, mostly because I've seen him take numerous beatings over the past two-plus years and still come out victorious. He was hammered pretty good in the second MacDonald fight, but he fought through it and still managed to earn the victory. I think that bodes well for Lawler's ability to weather the constant pressure that I expect Condit to bring. If Condit gets the fight to the mat, all bets are off, but I give a slight edge to Lawler in a striking battle. This fight could easily go the distance.
THE PICK: Lawler

Co-Main Event – Heavyweight

Stipe Miocic (13-2-0) v. Andrei Arlovski (25-10-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Miocic ($10,500), Arlovski ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Miocic (-235), Arlovski (+195)

It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that the winner of this fight could earn the next shot at the UFC heavyweight title. In regards to Arlovski, it's mind numbing that he has even got to this point. He looked finished after a brief, poor run in the WSOF, but he has since returned to the UFC and won four straight fights. Included in that stretch are victories over Frank Mir and Travis Browne. Arlovski didn't look great in the Mir fight, but he deserved to win it. Miocic is 4-1 in his last five fights, with his only loss coming in a war against Junior Dos Santos in December of last year. Anything can happen in the heavyweight division, but one would think this is a good matchup for Miocic. Stipe is one of the best athletes in the heavyweight division, displaying terrific footwork and movement. He lands considerably more significant strikes per minute than Arlovski and he has a three-inch reach advantage. Miocic also tends to rack up more takedowns (2.16) per fight, although Arlovski's takedown defense (85 percent) is terrific. I'm not convinced that Arlovski will be able to keep up with the younger, quicker Miocic. Andrei was hurt very badly in the fight against Browne before he came back and earned the stoppage win. I don't know how he will be able to handle what I expect to be a constant barrage of strikes from Miocic. Arlovski has enough power and his DK salary is low enough that there are worse moves than picking him to fill out a lineup, but I think hoping for a stoppage win from the former UFC heavyweight champion would be a reach.
THE PICK: Miocic

Welterweight

Lorenz Larkin (16-4-0, 1NC) v. Albert Tumenov (16-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Larkin ($9,300), Tumenov ($10,100)
Vegas Odds: Larkin (+185), Tumenov (-225)

This fight (like many on this card) isn't going to do a whole lot for the casual MMA watchers, but hardcore fans have been looking forward to this matchup since it was announced. If fans are looking for a battle between two guys with power who stand, exchange and do little else, this fight won't disappoint. Larkin has gotten a new lease on life since dropping down to welterweight. Following a three-fight losing streak at middleweight, Larkin decided to drop down a division and has since come up with violent TKO wins over both John Howard and Santiago Ponzinibbio. Remember, this is a guy who defeated Robbie Lawler in a middleweight fight back in their Strikeforce days. Unfortunately for Larkin, he is facing a guy who is a stone-cold killer on the feet. Tumenov has Russian master of sports degrees in both boxing and hand-to-hand combat, and he has a ridiculous amount of power for a guy who appears to have very little muscle mass on his body. Larkin will certainly be the bigger fighter when these two face off. I don't even know how you go about beating Tumenov on the feet. It seems like he could have a problem with a wrestler, but Larkin averages a whopping 0.22 takedowns per fight. I like Larkin. I've always thought he had far more ability than what he showed in the octagon. This just seems like a bad matchup for him. Larkin has enough power that it's certainly not a bad idea to put him in a DK lineup and hope for a finish, but I don't see how he can win a 15-minute boxing match from Tumenov. He almost certainly would need a stoppage victory and Tumenov has never been stopped in his pro career.
THE PICK: Tumenov

Featherweight

Diego Brandao (24-10-0) v. Brian Ortega (9-0-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Brandao ($9,100), Ortega ($10,300)
Vegas Odds: Brandao (+190), Ortega (-230)

Those who are regular readers of our MMA previews know that I am a big fan of Ortega, and that's not changing now. One of the most gifted ground specialists in the 145-pound division, Ortega has the ability to finish the fight from anywhere on the mat. At just 24 years old, he is continuously improving. And while he isn't known for his striking, it looked considerably improved in his last fight against Thiago Tavares. Furthermore, he is young enough that it's realistic to expect him to make advances on the feet. Brandao is what he is – an athlete who works hard and is a good wrestler, but also a fighter who has come up short against better competition. Since neither of these combatants are big strikers, this is going to come down to Brandao's wrestling against Ortega's ground game. Brandao has racked up an impressive 3.3 takedowns per fight in his UFC career, and Ortega's takedown defense has been poor at only 50 percent. Nonetheless, Ortega's ability to fight off his back is the reason I'm picking him to win. Brandao has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt of his own, but I expect considerably more improvement from the younger Ortega. Brandao's best chance of winning this fight is to rack up takedown after takedown and remain in top position in hopes of winning a decision.
THE PICK: Ortega

Lightweight

Abel Trujillo (12-7-0, 1NC) v. Tony Sims (12-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Trujillo ($10,000), Sims ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Trujillo (-110), Sims (-110)

This fight was moved to the main card after Kelvin Gastelum had to drop out of his scheduled fight against Kyle Noke due to injury. I won't even try to convince you that this is one of the five best fights on the card, but the UFC is committed to putting big names on both the prelims and Fight Pass portion of events, and the result is fights like this appearing on the main card. I was in attendance in Newark in February 2014 when Trujillo effectively ended Jamie Varner's career with one of the great knockouts in UFC history. Since then, Abel hasn't won a fight. He has been submitted in back-to-back bouts against Gleison Tibau and Tony Ferguson. Trujillo constantly moves forward in hopes of landing a big one-punch finish, but he pays very little attention to defense and often ends up getting finished himself. Sims is 1-1 in the UFC, with a quick TKO win over Steve Montgomery in his UFC debut, and a clear unanimous decision loss to Olivier Aubin-Mercier in his last fight in August. Neither of these guys are good, but I've seen enough of Trujillo that I know he won't be getting any better. Maybe the younger Sims has some sort of skills that haven't been seen yet in the octagon. As far as a DraftKings lineup goes, I'm trying my best to stay away from this fight.
THE PICK: Sims

Other Bouts


Bantamweight

Michael McDonald (16-3-0) v. Masanori Kanehara (25-12-5)
DraftKings Salaries: McDonald ($11,000), Kanehara ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: McDonald (-550), Kanehara (+425)
THE PICK: McDonald
PS: Welcome back Mayday!

Welterweight

Kyle Noke (22-7-1) v. Alex Morono (11-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Noke ($8,500), Morono ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Noke (-250), Morono (+210)
THE PICK: Noke

Women's Strawweight

Justine Kish (4-0-0) v. Nina Ansaroff (6-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Kish ($10,700), Ansaroff ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Kish (-270), Ansaroff (+230)
THE PICK: Kish

Lightweight

Scott Holtzman (8-0-0) v. Drew Dober (15-7-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Holtzman ($10,400), Dober ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Holtzman (-160), Dober (+140)
THE PICK: Holtzman

Lightweight

Dustin Poirier (18-4-0) v. Joe Duffy (14-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Poirier ($8,800), Duffy ($10,600)
Vegas Odds: Poirier (+160), Duffy (-185)
THE PICK: Duffy

Bantamweight

Joe Soto (15-4-0) v. Michinori Tanaka (10-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries:Soto ($9,700), Tanaka ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Soto (-110), Tanaka (-110)
THE PICK: Soto

Welterweight

Sheldon Westcott (9-3-1) v. Edgar Garcia (14-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Westcott ($10,200), Garcia ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Westcott (-160), Garcia (+140)
THE PICK: Westcott

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MMA Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MMA fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
UFC Macau Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC Macau Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC Macau Yan vs. Figueiredo DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes
UFC Macau Yan vs. Figueiredo DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes
MMA Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for UFC Macau
MMA Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for UFC Macau
DraftKings MMA: UFC Macau DFS Preview
DraftKings MMA: UFC Macau DFS Preview
UFC 309 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC 309 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
Fight IQ: UFC 309 Preview, Jones vs. Miocic
Fight IQ: UFC 309 Preview, Jones vs. Miocic