DraftKings MMA: UFC on FOX 17 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC on FOX 17 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

One of the most popular fighters in company history gets his first shot at UFC gold on Saturday in Orlando.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Co-Main Event – Lightweight Championship

(C) Rafael dos Anjos (24-7-0) v. Donald Cerrone (28-6-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: dos Anjos ($10,500), Cerrone ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: dos Anjos (-220), Cerrone (+180)

This fight is getting overlooked with all the big events the UFC has put on in the past week, but it's truly a terrific matchup. Dos Anjos and Cerrone fought in August 2013, in what was a fairly easy unanimous decision win for the current champion. Since then, Cerrone is 8-0. Dos Anjos is 4-1, although his last fight in March was a beating of Anthony Pettis that earned him the UFC lightweight title. RDA's greatest strength is his wrestling and ground game, although wrestling is probably the most underrated aspect of Cowboy's game. Nobody ever talks about Cerrone's wrestling skills because he fights every other month, and they are usually kickboxing matches. It's no surprise that Cerrone tends to be more active on the feet, but he also tends to get hit more. Dos Anjos absorbs 2.3 significant strikes per minute as opposed to 3.7 for Cowboy. After an embarrassing loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov in April 2014, a light seemed to go off in the champion's head. RDA became more aggressive on the feet, but he still mixed in plenty of his signature takedowns. We all know Cowboy keeps himself in elite shape, so there's no chance of the fact that this is a 25-minute championship fight impacting him. I think Cerrone's best hoping of win this is to take a decision. He needs to try to use RDA's aggressive against him while also throwing a ton of his signature leg kicks and mixing in a few takedowns of his own. Dos Anjos looked so dominant against Pettis that he is my pick to win, but I like Cerrone's DraftKings salaries and his Vegas odds. It's very rare that a fighter of Cerrone's ability and experience is such a big underdog.
THE PICK: dos Anjos

Co-Main Event – Heavyweight

Junior Dos Santos (17-3-0) v. Alistair Overeem (39-14-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Dos Santos ($10,900), Overeem ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Dos Santos (-360), Overeem (+300)

This is a fight that has been rumored for well over a year, and for quite a while, looked like it would never come to fruition. It's now set for Saturday and it sure looks like a bad matchup for Overeem. Dos Santos hasn't fought in just over a year, although it seems like longer than that. JDS is known for both his power and ability to take punishment. The former UFC heavyweight champion is clearly one of the three or four top heavyweights in the world. Dos Santos went 1-2 in his trilogy against Cain Velasquez, but he hasn't lost to anyone else since Nov. 2007. He has wins over current UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum, as well as contenders Stipe Miocic, Mark Hunt, Frank Mir, Roy Nelson and Stefan Struve. Dos Santos has proven he can take a beating, which is virtually a necessity if you wish to be successful in the heavyweight division. Overeem has back-to-back wins over Nelson and Struve, but he also has losses to Ben Rothwell, Travis Browne and Bigfoot Silva in the last two-plus years. I'm not willing to label Overeem as a legitimate contender just because he beat Nelson and Struve. Overeem can match the power of JDS, although the Brazilian tends to land more. My biggest concern of this fight is Overeem's chin. He was brutally knocked out in his losses to Browne and Silva, and he's just 3-3 over the last four years. If The Reem's chin can hold up for 15 minutes, I expect him to lose a decision. If it doesn't, I expect him to get knocked out. I don't see how he avoids a significant amount of punishment in this fight. The fact it is a three-round fight as opposed to a five-round fight definitely benefits Overeem, but I just don't see how he wins. I am a little surprised that the line isn't a bit more lopsided in Dos Santos' favor.
THE PICK: Dos Santos

Lightweight

Michael Johnson (17-9-0) v. Nate Diaz (18-10-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Johnson ($11,100), Diaz ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (-470), Diaz (+375)

Add Diaz to the list of guys who could be in for a long night on Saturday. Diaz hasn't beaten anyone other than Gray Maynard (who needs to retire ASAP) since November 2013. He has just one win since May 2012. I have long believed that both Diaz brothers are in the sport right now for the money. They're both extremely picky about who they fight, and their antics usually overshadow their performances in the cage. By all accounts, Nate is in great shape, as I believe that the brothers still enjoy the competition that MMA brings and the training portion. Beyond that, however, I think they are in it because they get big paychecks. Johnson's last fight was a split decision loss to Beneil Dariush in August, but that was one of the worst decisions you will ever see. Johnson should be riding a five-fight winning streak entering this one. The only thing that Diaz has going for him in this fight is that I expect it to be a boxing match. Diaz is a capable wrestler, but his takedown defense is terrible. Johnson doesn't pick up many takedowns, but his takedown defense is fantastic. I don't see Nate winning by knockout (Johnson has never been knocked out in his career), therefore Nate is either going to have to figure out a way to get Johnson down and pickup a submission win or out work him over the course of the fight to take a decision. I think the submission is more likely, but the odds of that are slim. If I were picking an underdog to throw in my lineup, Diaz certainly would not be at the top of the list.
THE PICK: Johnson

Women's Strawweight

Randa Markos (5-3-0) v. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (7-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Markos ($10,400), Kowalkiewicz ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Markos (-175), Kowalkiewicz (+155)

There are several better fights than this one on the card, but the UFC is committed to trying to push the strawweight division and this one is effectively on the main portion of the event. This will be Kowalkiewicz's UFC debut. She is undefeated, but she has fought nobodies. Markos will be by far the biggest test of her young career. Markos is a former Ultimate Fighter competitor who is one of the better strawweights that nobody ever talks about. She has a win over rising star Tecia Torres and recently announced that she was moving to Montreal to train full-time at Tristar. Markos has never been known as a very active fighter, so it's a bit scary to think that she is training under Firas Zahabi and the folks in Montreal. Still, the majority of Zahabi's disciples (Georges St. Pierre, Rory MacDonald, etc.) are very successful. Given the fact that this is Kowalkiewicz's first UFC and the fact that Markos is still very young in her UFC career, this is a fight I would stay away from on DraftKings.
THE PICK: Markos

Featherweight

Charles Oliveira (20-5-0, 1NC) v. Myles Jury (15-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Oliveira ($9,400), Jury ($10,000)
Vegas Odds: Oliveira (+110), Jury (-130)

Jury was beat up pretty good by Cowboy Cerrone in his last fight, his first career loss, and as a result he has decided to drop down to featherweight. Oliveira isn't the first guy I would want to see if I moved down to the 145-pound division. I really expected Oliveira to give Max Holloway a heck of a fight when the two met in August, but Oliveira suffered a freak injury a little over 90 seconds into the bout and couldn't continue. The end result was a tough TKO loss on his record. Oliveira's mat skills are amongst the best in the world in any division. He has pulled off some insane submissions during his time in the UFC and his only losses are against elite competition (Holloway, Cerrone, Frankie Edgar, Cub Swanson and Jim Miller, back when Miller was actually good). Turning to Jury, the 27-year-old is a good wrestler and rarely gets hit on the feet, but I'm not completely sold on his ability to fight off his back, and I try and stay from a guy in his first fight in a new division, especially when they are moving down in weight. I think Oliveira is a legitimate top-five featherweight. He's behind Conor McGregor, Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar in the pecking order, but he is right there with Holloway and I think he's better than Ricardo Lamas.
THE PICK: Oliveira

Other Bouts


Middleweight

C.B. Dollaway (16-7-0) v. Nate Marquardt (36-15-2)
DraftKings Salaries: Dollaway ($10,800), Marquardt ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Dollaway (-360), Marquardt (+300)
THE PICK: Dollaway

Women's Bantamweight

Sarah Kaufman (17-2-0, 1NC) v. Valentina Shevchenko (9-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Kaufman ($10,600), Shevchenko ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Kaufman (-240), Shevchenko (+200)
THE PICK: Kaufman

Middleweight

Josh Samman (12-3-0) v. Tamdan McCrory (13-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Samman ($10,300), McCrory ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Samman (-170), McCrory (+150)
THE PICK: Samman

Lightweight

Nik Lentz (27-7-2, 1NC) v. Danny Castillo (17-9-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Lentz ($9,700), Castillo ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Lentz (-120), Castillo (+100)
THE PICK: Castillo

Featherweight

Cole Miller (21-9-0) v. Jim Alers (13-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Miller ($9,600), Alers ($9,800)
Vegas Odds: Miller (+125), Alers (-145)
THE PICK: Alers

Welterweight

Leon Edwards (10-2-0) v. Kamaru Usman (6-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries:Edwards ($9,200), Usman ($10,200)
Vegas Odds: Edwards (+175), Usman (-210)
THE PICK: Usman

Welterweight

Hayder Hassan (6-2-0) v. Vicente Luque (7-5-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Hassan ($9,900), Luque ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Hassan (-120), Luque (+100)
THE PICK: Hassan

Heavyweight

Luis Henrique (8-1-0) v. Francis Ngannou (5-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Henrique ($10,100), Ngannaou ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Henrique (-125), Ngannou (+105)
THE PICK: Ngannou

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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