This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
The heavyweight division will get a shake up on Wednesday when a future hall-of-famer and one of the brighter prospects in the division collide in a rare mid-week event.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:
Moves Scoring:
- Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
- Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
- Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
- Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
- Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses:
- 1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
- 2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
- 3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
- 4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
- 5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
- Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS
Scoring Notes:
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- Advances include: moving to half guard, side control, mount or back control.
Now, on to the fights...
Main Event – Heavyweight
Frank Mir (17-9-0) v. Todd Duffee (9-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Mir ($8,900), Duffee ($10,500)
Vegas Odds: Mir (+165), Duffee (-190)
Mir looked like he was on the verge of retiring after a fourth-straight loss in February 2014, but he rebounded with a first-round TKO win over Bigfoot Silva (who may want to consider retiring himself) this past February. Unfortunately, that victory was more the result of Silva being washed up than Mir suddenly finding his game. We all know Mir's game. He may be the most gifted Jiu-Jitsu artist to ever compete in the heavyweight division. Even at 36, there's no one on the roster that can match his skills on the mat. Duffee has been in five UFC bouts in his career. He has three first-round knockout wins and two knockout losses on his ledger thus far. Due to various injuries and health issues, he's fought just three times since December 2010. Duffee defeated Anthony Hamilton via first-round TKO in his last bout in December of last year. Simply put, when he's in the octagon, Duffee looks like he will either be a future champion or like a guy who should be cut from the roster. It depends which guy shows up. That being said, he's a terrific athlete for a man his size and there is zero chance that Mir, at his advanced age, will be able to handle Duffee's explosiveness. This fight is scheduled for five-rounds, but I don't expect it to last very long. Even though Mir easily handled Silva in his last fight, I really don't like his chances against the more athletic and heavier Duffee. I think "The Duff' should have an easy night if he can stay off the mat.
THE PICK: Duffee
Co-Main Event – Lightweight
Josh Thomson (20-7-0, 1NC) v. Tony Ferguson (19-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Thomson ($8,700), Ferguson ($10,700)
Vegas Odds: Thomson (+165), Ferguson (-190)
The co-main event slot was originally supposed to go to Gilbert Melendez and Al Iaquinta, but that fell apart when Melendez received a one-year suspension last week for a failed drug test. No matter, Thomson v. Ferguson is a terrific bout and worthy of the honor. Thomson is coming off back-to-back split decision losses to Benson Henderson and Bobby Green. I think he definitely won the Henderson fight and the Green fight was 50-50 and could have gone either way. The former Strikeforce lightweight champion has just one win since May 2012. Ferguson is on a roll. He's won five bouts in a row and he's 8-1 in his UFC career. Thomson has faced the better competition but Ferguson is five years younger and a better athlete at this point in their respective careers. The numbers across the board for these two are virtually identical. Ferguson is more aggressive and tends to land more strikes, but Thomson is more accurate. Both men are terrific on the mat. Thomson has nine career wins by submission and Ferguson has six. In a bout like this that could easily go the distance, aggressiveness is often the difference. For that reason, I'm taking Ferguson. That being said, Thomson's DK salary is entirely reasonable. I'd give serious consideration to using him.
THE PICK: Ferguson
Women's Bantamweight
Holly Holm (8-0-0) v. Marion Reneau (6-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Holm ($10,400), Reneau ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Holm (-175), Reneau (+155)
Holm, who is an 18-time world champion in boxing, signed with the UFC in July of last year. It made big headlines at the time and the UFC brass gave her an easy bout against Raquel Pennington in her debut in February in hopes of fast-tracking her to a fight against champion Ronda Rousey. The only problem was that Holm looked dreadful and she barely pulled out a split decision victory. Reneau's story is among the most unlikely that you will ever hear in the MMA world. She's already 38 years old. She is a physical education teacher at a California high school. She trains at night after her work at the school is complete. She started fighting to help earn money for her son's college fund. Lost in all this is the fact that she's a brown-belt in Jiu-Jitsu, one of the strongest women in the division and on a five-fight winning streak. Holm trains with coach Greg Jackson in New Mexico. There's no better coach in the game when it comes to making adjustments from one fight to another. That being said, Holm is going to need the help. If she fights like she did against Pennington, she's going to lose. I still have a hard time believing that a 38-year old gym teacher is going to be an 18-time boxing champion, but stranger things have happened. I may be thinking with my heart and not my head here, but give me Reneau. The UFC brass better pray that I'm wrong here.
THE PICK: Reneau
Bantamweight
Scott Jorgensen (15-10-0) v. Manny Gamburyan (17-9-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Jorgensen ($9,100), Gamburyan ($10,300)
Vegas Odds: Jorgensen (+130), Gamburyan (-150)
Jorgensen has lost four of his last five fights and he missed weight for his last bout. As a result, he is moving up to bantamweight for this fight against Gamburyan. Jorgensen has fought some of the best fighters in the world during his career (Urjiah Faber, Renan Barao, Dominick Cruz), but the problem is that he's lost to all of them. He is a terrific wrestler and extremely aggressive, but takes a ton of punishment and is nowhere near as strong as Gamburyan. Gamburyan is a former eight-time junior national judo champion and he figures to have a significant advantage on the mat. When you combine that with the fact that three of Jorgensen's last four defeats have come via submission, I think Jorgensen could be in serious trouble. Based on their recent efforts, I have more confidence in the 34-year old Gamburyan right now than the 32-year old Jorgensen. Jorgensen could easily be released if he loses this fight. I think this fight is close enough that Jorgensen's DK salary deserves consideration.
THE PICK: Gamburyan
Lightweight
Kevin Lee (10-1-0) v. James Moontasri (8-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Lee ($11,200), Moontasri ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Lee (-260), Moontasri (+220)
I'm a huge fan of Lee. I think he has a ton of potential and is one of the brighter prospects in the lightweight division. Lee dropped his UFC debut to Al Iaquinta in February 2014, but he performed well in that contest and he's won three straight since. He's a terrific wrestler and has been able to rack up takedowns seemingly at will in his early UFC career. Moontasri is a pure striker. He does his best work on the feet and he hasn't even attempted a takedown attempt in his first two UFC bouts. Moontasri should have a chance if this ends up being a boxing match for an extended period of time, but I think Lee is too big and too strong and will be able to drag Moontasri to the ground and ride out a decision. I wouldn't take a shot on Moontasri despite the very low DK salary.
THE PICK: Lee
Welterweight
Alan Jouban (11-3-0) v. Matt Dwyer (8-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Jouban ($11,800), Dwyer ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Jouban (-420), Dwyer (+335)
This is a bout between two fighters who stand and trade and do little else. At 6'4, Dwyer is one of the tallest fighters in the welterweight division. He has a very lanky frame and he should be able to put his three-inch reach advantage to use against Jouban. Dwyer suffered a first-round TKO loss to Albert Tumenov in his UFC debut in December 2014, but he responded with a first-round TKO win over William Macario in his last fight in February. Jouban isn't exactly a household name, but he defeated Richard Walsh on the main card of UFC 184 in his last bout. Dwyer's problem has always been that he eats too many shots. That will always be an issue, but it figures to be an especially big problem against the always-active Jouban. For the sake of comparison, in their UFC bouts, Jouban lands 5.35 significant strikes per minute compared to Dwyer's 3.04. Dwyer has to stay on the outside and use his length to his advantage. It's the only way I can see him winning. Even then, I don't like his chances.
THE PICK: Jouban
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Sam Sicilia (14-5-0) v. Yaotzin Meza (20-10-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Sicilia ($10,600), Meza ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Sicilia (-160), Meza (+140)
THE PICK: Sicilia
Women's Bantamweight
Jessica Andrade (12-4-0) v. Sarah Moras (4-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Andrade ($11,200), Moras ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Andrade (-320), Moras (+260)
THE PICK: Andrade
Bantamweight
Rani Yahya (20-8-0, 1NC) v. Masanori Kanehara (24-11-5)
DraftKings Salaries: Yahya ($9,700), Kanehara ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Yahya (-110), Kanehara (-110)
THE PICK: Kanehara
Welterweight
Igor Araujo (25-7-0, 1NC) v. Sean Strickland (15-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Araujo ($7,900), Strickland ($11,500)
Vegas Odds: Araujo (+270), Strickland (-330)
THE PICK: Strickland
Middleweight
Kevin Casey (9-3-0) v. Ildemar Alcantara (21-7-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Casey ($9,900), Alcantara ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Casey (-120), Alcantara (+100)
THE PICK: Alcantara
Welterweight
Andrew Craig (9-3-0) v. Lyman Good (18-3-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Craig ($8,100), Good ($11,300)
Vegas Odds: Craig (+230), Good (-270)
THE PICK: Good
