NHL Schedule Analysis: Hab Nots

Upon us once again, the sorely needed but sadly endured NHL Christmas week schedule. With a three day black out period, there are plenty of trends to keep an eye out for, so let's get started.

----------------

Trips

With a season-low 64 games on the docket this week, it will be important to avoid Montreal (just one game) and focus on the five teams playing a league-high three game slate.

Anaheim will host San Jose before the break then play in Arizona and host Vancouver on b2b nights. Hampus Lindholm (lower body) was scratched on Friday.

Arizona plays in Vancouver and Edmonton on b2b nights before the break then hosts the aforementioned Ducks on Saturday.  Fresh fatherhood looked good on Martin Hanzal in Saturday's loss to L.A.

Nashville will also play two (@CBJ, @BOS) of their three before the break and host Philly the day after. Like many before him this season, reports suggest James Neal (flu) is NOT battling the mumps.

Pittsburgh could arguably use the holiday break more than any organization, but not before a Florida swing on Monday and Tuesday then hosting Washington out of the break. Sidney Crosby is back and doesn't seem to have missed a beat. Simon Despres remains a top four defenseman while Christian Ehrhoff (lower body) and Paul Martin (undisclosed) are out.

Speaking of Washington, the Capitals host Ottawa then head off to Manhattan for their first of four season battles with the Rangers.Coming out of the break, they'll face what will likely be a much healthier Pens team. Nicklas Backstrom has seven points (five goals) in his last four games. John Carlson snapped a two-game point drought in Saturday's win over New Jersey.

One Pair

Since Santa brings a three-day break, the customary or vanilla three-game schedule is two games this week. Let's take a look at three teams with a favorable and unfavorable schedule.

Hold 'Em

As long as they can avoid scoring on themselves, Calgary lines up with two favorable games. Although travelling to Los Angeles is tough for most teams, the Kings haven't exactly been the model of consistency. This will be the first meeting between the two teams since the Flames took last year's (3-2) season series. Calgary will then return from the break to host Edmonton who man-handled 5-2 in October.

After winning seven of eight into the month of December, look what Santa has wrapped under the tree for a stumbling Detroit squad. The way Jimmy Howard's (day-to-day) playing this season, we highly doubt a surging Sabres team will hang in there and Ottawa (scored four or more goals six times this season) is not exactly a high-powered scoring threat. While the Red Wings have lost five straight, three were in shootouts and only one was by more than one goal. Rebound week in the Motor City as they continue a four game home-stand. Tomas Tatar is getting over the flu. Stephen Weiss (shoulder) could be back this week, but not likely before the holiday black out.

St. Louis is another team that entered December on a high note, but stumbled a bit, going just 4-5 this month. St. Louis has outscored (10-7) this week's opponents (Dallas, Colorado) and is 3-0 against them this year. We finally hopped off the Jori Lehtera train and now he has a goal and an assist in last three games. Steve Ott scored his first goal of the season but Jake Allen absorbed Saturday's loss.

Fold 'Em

Colorado has managed just about the same pedestrian results in home jersey's than away, so we're not exactly brimming with confidence even with Semyon Varlamov (groin) nearing a return as they are scheduled to play the Blues and Blackhawks in the nights heading into the break and coming out of the break. Alex Tanguay celebrated John Mitchell's return to the lineup with two goals and an assist while Jarome Iginila had three assists and Calvin Pickard stopped 21 of 22 in Saturday's 5-1 pummeling of Buffalo. 

Even with Jakub Voracek leading the league in points after Philadelphia managed to outscore Toronto on the first of their eight game road trip Saturday night and despite their 5-2 record against the Western Conference this year, we're just not sure they'll be able to do the same when they travel to the mid-west and face the Wild and Preds. Especially with Steven Mason slated to see a back specialist. 

With Monday, Sunday and the blackout off, Winnipeg will get plenty of rest, but they'll need it as they travel to Chicago, back home for the holidays then back to Minnesota for a battle with the Wild. Permanently back on the Jets blue line, Dustin Byfuglien has not gone more than one game without a point since the middle of November.

Table Talk

Every week I hop on with the Phil Naessens show (http://phillipnaessens.wordpress.com/) to take listener questions and talk shop. Here's what we spoke about this week. (statistics as of 12/19/14)

1). A listener wanted to know if Jhonas Enroth, Boone Jenner, Brayden Schenn and Jake Muzzin are worth picking up.

As always, it' difficult to say definitively if these guys are worth picking up in contrast to unknown guys already rostered, but we'll try to give them a nice situational once over.

I'm a huge proponent of Mr. Jenner's. He's a center by trade, but currently a first line winger alongside Ryan Johansen, what's not to like? His success falls alongside Columbus' success, that's what. Although I'm firm believer in this team's long term direction, if you're worth your weight in gold, you know their short-term success is a fickle matter. Without a doubt Jenner is a must own in keeper leagues. For FanDuel players like myself, look for this guy on Tuesday's and Saturday's, weird I know, but his small sample career numbers suggests he averages half a point a game on those his most productive nights. For standard league fantasy owners pick him up with simmered expectations so you're not disappointed. As much as I love him riding shotgun with Johansen, in order for this guy to truly flourish, I think he needs to be playing alongside a crafty veteran and although Columbus could bring that in before the deadline, it's not likely to happen anytime soon. Not long after this conversation, Jenner was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his back and will miss 1-2 months. Sean Collins (10 goals, 19 points in 27 AHL games) has been called up from Springfield.

Jhonas Enroth has been the nexus of a very complex/delicate goal-tending situation in the NHL this year. Having won nine of his last 11 starts, I can see the appeal, but there's simply no telling how large the fire sale will be on a stumbling team tank. Based on career stats, and we'll stay away from GAA as well, Enroth has played for pitiful Buffalo for his entire career, he has an average save-percentage of .896 in the months of January and Februray. While Enroth is the clear cut number one guy, the team will play four of their 12 games in January on a b2b occurrence. Put those two factors together and the math suggests Michal Neuvirth who plays his pedestrian best hockey in January/February might get a chance to wrangle the crown from Enroth. I would say stay away until March when he kicks things up a notch, especially with a very likely roster shakeup in his near future.

Brayden Schenn, just like Jenner is going to have dual eligibility in most Yahoo leagues, but his ownership is currently tripled that of Jenner, so it's obvious you have a lot less time to decide on him. That said, unless Schenn is truly fulfilling on his blue-chip promise this season, based on career numbers after the calendar year change I think a dip in production is headed his way. Keep in mind, 10 of his 22 points this season have come on a nine game stretch in November which is typically his second best month of the season, save for February. Still he's second line personnel and despite being on one of the top five best power play teams in the league, he rarely contributes to that. Compare against your bubbling rostered guy and do your homework on this one before pulling the trigger because he's a gamble.

Jake Muzzin is a guy I got from an auto-draft this year. Auto-drafts are fun, aren't they? So needless to say, I dealt with the drama of him opening the season injured. Since then, it's been a tale of two months, including 10 points in 8 games back in November and now six points in his last 12 contests, mostly due to LA's struggles. While I like the guy and KNOW the Kings will get more consistent, his production during the months of January and February through the first four years of his career has barely compared to that of any other month. Additionally, the Kings play just 11 games next month. IF it's March and he's available, I say hell yes, Otherwise, I say look elsewhere unless he breaks out of his slump.

2). A listener wanted to know if they should drop Dan Boyle?

This is a tough one as Boyle was a good value pick for the organization and fantasy owners alike this fall. Coming into the season, he had yet to miss more than seven games in a season since the 2001-02 campaign. Now he's missed more than half the season to this point and produced near zilch (two points) in the time (14 games) he has played. So why has Boyle struggled so much? Your guess is as good as mine, but one school of thought is the switch back to the Eastern Conference, which he hasn't played in since the 2007-08 campaign. That said, the Rangers embark on a four-game trip out west early next month which of course will include a visit to the Shark Tank to rumble with his old mates. Considering one of his two goals came against his other former team the Lightning, seems to me the 38-year-old ticks like most creatures of habit against familiarity. Unless there's something really sweet in the FA pool, hold onto him until after the west coast trip next month.

OTHER ROTOWIRE REPORTS:Jamie Benn snapped a nine-game goal-scoring drought on Friday, while Jordie Benn is "feeling better" and eyeing a return to the lineup soon. Jonathan Bernier gave up seven goals to the Flyers on Saturday, don't be surprised if James Reimer steals a start or two in the coming weeks. Ben Bishop (lower body) resumed skating on Saturday and could be ready to return on Tuesday. Derick Brassard (mumps) returned to the lineup in Saturday's win. Michael Cammalleri (lower body) was placed on IR, retroactive to last Saturday but is considered day-to-day. Matt Cooke (hip) returned the lineup on Saturday. Lars Ellers (upper body) returned to the lineup on Saturday, displacing David Desharnais back to third line wing while Max Pacioretty (two assists) showed no ill effects from his hit earlier this week. Jannik Hansen is reportedly okay after a scary incident on Saturday. Scott Hartnell (broken finger) is reportedly eyeing a return to the lineup after the holiday break.Jimmy Hayes was a healthy scratch on Saturday. Cody McCormick (lower body) skated briefly at Saturday's practice. Matt Moulson (flu) is out until Tuesday at least and Tyler Myers (lower body)  could have the same fate. While Alexander Semin (lower body) was activated on Saturday, he did not play in the loss to the Rangers.