NHL Picks for Western Conference Finals Game 6: Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars

NHL Picks for Western Conference Finals Game 6: Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars

This article is part of our NHL Picks series.

NHL Bets Tonight: Dallas Stars at 
Edmonton Oilers  
Game 6 NHL Best Bets and Player Props

The Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers meet in Game 6 of their best-of-seven Western Conference Final series on Sunday night. Puck drop from Rogers Place is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on TNT.

Check in on the Stanley Cup odds as the postseason unfolds, as well as the latest NHL odds during the Conference Finals. Going into Wednesday's tilt, the Stars are -250 favorites to win the series while the Oilers are priced at +240 at BetMGM. The BetMGM bonus code now gets new players a first-bet offer worth up to $1,500, allowing them to get in on the action for the rest of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Stars were upended in Game 1 in Dallas, losing home-ice advantage to the Oilers thanks to a double-overtime winner by Connor McDavid. Dallas won the next two games, however, seizing home-ice advantage right back.

The Oilers picked up a win in Game 4, leveling the series, 2-2, although Dallas had home-ice advantage heading into Game 5. Edmonton didn't care.

The No. 1 pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, might have had the most impactful game of his career in Game 5. He netted a pair of power-play goals, setting the tone for the Oilers. His first goal came late in the first period, and his second completely quieted the crowd at 1:06 of the second period.

Evan Bouchard picked up two assists on the RNH goals, while McDavid and Leon Draisaitl also added helpers on the man advantage. The Oilers weren't done, though. Philip Broberg posted his first-career postseason goal at 5:09 of the third period, giving Edmonton a 3-0 lead. Broberg entered with two goals and just 11 points with a minus-5 rating in 81 career NHL regular-season games across parts of three season, so needless to say, his goal was a surprise to most everyone.

Stuart Skinner, who was feeling the heat after a Game 3 loss, has rebounded with victories in each of the past two games. He kicked aside 20 of 22 shots in Game 4 in Edmonton, and he made 19 saves on 20 shots in Game 5. The All-Star has improved to 10-5-0 with a 2.60 GAA and .890 SV% with one shutout, and suddenly his seat is a little cooler.

Jake Oettinger, the 25-year-old Lakeville, Minn. native, is suddenly seeing some questions. He has coughed up 10 goals on 84 shots across the past three games, including back-to-back setbacks. Oettinger is now 10-8-0 with a 2.25 GAA and .917 SV% in 18 playoff outings. While the overall numbers are still very good, and he is obviously capable, he has struggled in the past three outings.

The power play came alive for Edmonton, which is no surprise. It ranked No. 4 in the NHL during the regular season at 26.3%, while also ranking fourth with 3.6 goals per game.

The Stars were No. 8 in the league on the penalty kill at 82.0 percent, while also ranking eighth with 2.8 GPG allowed. And the Dallas power play isn't too shabby, either, hitting at a 24.2 percent clip, ranking No. 6.

As far as elimination games, Dallas has already faced one in these playoffs. It edged the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 7 in the first round to stave off elimination and advance. However, Dallas is just 4-9 in the past 13 elimination games dating back to the 2007 postseason. For Edmonton, it has won the past four games when it has an opportunity to close out a series.

Looking to the lines, back the Oilers straight up. The conservative bettor might look to the puck line and the underdog, since the underdog is 3-2 in this series so far. But it's going to be an uphill climb for the Stars as they head to Cup-hungry Canada.

NHL Moneyline Bets for Stars at Oilers

  • Oilers ML (-135 at DraftKings)

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The Under cashed last time out in Big D, as we had a total of just four goals. In fact, in all three meetings at American Airlines Center, the Under has cashed all three times. In the two games in Edmonton, we have had an average of 7.5 goals per game, and two Over results.

While that's all well and good, this is an elimination game for the Stars. You can expect to see the backchecking, hitting and physicality pick up, the high-danger scoring chances go way down.

Dallas won't want to roll the dice and take stupid chances, which would lead to Edmonton goals, as its season is on the line. And the Oilers won't want to do things which could give the Stars life, potentially forcing this series back to Dallas for a decisive Game 7.

Look for a lower-scoring game in Alberta, and the first Under result of the series at Rogers Place.

NHL Totals Bets for Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers

  • Under 5.5 (-115 at Caesars)

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NHL Player Props for Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers

As far as the player props, we'll actually go with a combination of player props and/or team props for a special Same-Game Parlay (SGP). The Anytime Goal Scorer (AGS) props are not recommended late in a series, even with high-octane power-play units on both sides. We'll re-visit AGS props in the Stanley Cup Final.

For the road team, it's now or never for the Stars. They managed just six total shots on goal through the midway point of Game 5. That's simply not going to do. Edmonton did a good job of gumming up the neutral zone last time out, but Dallas needs to fight through, figure it out, and find a way to get rubber on Skinner. The season is on the line, and betting Over on Skinner's shot total is a good idea.

Looking to the home side, Evan Bouchard has managed exactly two shots on goal (SOG) in each of the past three games. This should be a defensive battle, with the offense a little muted. He has hit the Under on SOG in three straight games, and at plus-money he is a recommended play to go low again.

BONUS – Same-Game Parlay +850 (at Caesars)

Let's get it!

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Daniel Dobish
Hockey writer, unskilled fourth liner, fantasy and gambling industry veteran, handicapper, FSWA's 2011 fantasy hockey writer of the year nominee and four-time FSWA award winner. Twitter: @danieledobish
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