Hutch's Hockey: The Season Ahead

I think I can speak for all hockey fans when I say I'm looking forward to the league's return to an 82-game season. As a lifelong hockey fan, the uncertainty around the last two seasons has been difficult. While we're not all the way back to normal, this is a great step forward. 

Before I get into my season preview, let me introduce myself. I'm Shawn Hutchinson, and I've been playing fantasy hockey since 2007. I've played in a variety of formats with anywhere between six and 20 teams, and I've seen numerous category layouts. I prefer to play in leagues with 8-to-12 teams, and I prefer old-fashioned head-to-head formats, although I've taken a liking to points leagues recently as well. 

My goal with this column is to provide my audience with insight based on my experience both through the years and on a week-to-week basis. What you can expect from me each week this season (and hopefully beyond!) is an anecdote or two, some general strategic advice, and a few player spotlights for both the waiver wire and the trade market. As fantasy managers, we're always looking for sustainable success, and it's my goal to point out a few players that are going both over- and under-appreciated. 

Since the season hasn't started yet, I'll begin with some of the things I've learned as I've drafted teams over the last few weeks. Without further ado, let's take a look at my fantasy must-haves and never-wants for the upcoming season. 

Roster Essentials

Outside of the obvious early-round superstars, I've found myself gravitating toward a few players in particular in drafts. At the top of that list is Roope Hintz. If there's a hype train for the Finnish superstar-to-be, I've got a first-class ticket on it. He had 43 points in 41 games last season on a bad groin -- now fully healthy, I truly believe he's capable of 30 goals and 70 points. I've gotten him around the seventh or eighth round in eight-team leagues, and it's just icing on the cake that he has both center and left wing eligibility. 

Hintz isn't the only Stars forward I have a lot of faith in. Fellow young star Jason Robertson went from an afterthought to second in the Calder Trophy vote with 45 points in 51 games. I've especially jumped to draft him in leagues where I've picked up Hintz first. Robertson's playmaking and power-play duties will make him most attractive in leagues focused on scoring output -- there's no physicality in his game. Likewise, I've pushed pretty hard to add at least one of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn or Joe Pavelski in the middle-to-late rounds. Brass tacks: I think the Stars' offense is getting slept on, and I don't intend to get caught napping. 

Elsewhere in the Central Division, a pair of Predators has often landed on my roster. Roman Josi has easily slotted in as a second defenseman on my teams, and occasionally a first if I miss out on one of the elites at the position. I'm not too concerned about Josi's 33-point output in 48 games last year -- he's going to be a big part of however much scoring success the Preds have this year. He won't hurt in blocked shots either, as only the shortened season prevented him from reaching the century mark in that category in 2020-21. I'm also big on Juuse Saros, who is set to receive a big uptick in workload this season with Pekka Rinne retired. Saros went 21-11-1 with a 2.28 GAA and a .927 save percentage in 36 games last year, but he showed strong improvement after a lackluster start to the season. I don't think the Predators are a playoff team, but Saros should make that a more interesting conversation. 

Count me in for a Taylor Hall resurgence this year. In Boston, he doesn't have to be the focal point of the offense. While David Krejci's return to the Czech Republic takes a little shine off Hall's outlook, I think he's got 60 points in him with a second-line role. He's played for the Devils at the start of their decline, and then the Coyotes and Sabres, who haven't been juggernauts for some time now. He's shot 10 percent over the last four seasons, but I think better teammates will help his playmaking and overall offense this year. If I'm right, I'm feeling pretty good about a winger I got as a bench option. 

If I age as well as David Perron, I'll be a very happy guy. He exceeded a point-per-game pace for the first time his career as a 32-year-old last season. He's lost a bit of the edge from his game in the last few years, but I'm drafting him in a similar position to Hall and expecting 55-to-60 points. It's possible the Blues' offense could be a little too deep to start the season, but I'm banking on at least second-line work for Perron. 

In goal, I like Cal Petersen as a third or fourth option in fantasy. His .911 save percentage last year was the worst of his three seasons, but it also came in 35 games played. Jonathan Quick isn't getting younger -- Petersen seems poised to take the reigns (not the Ontario variety) at some point in 2021-22. Even if it's a 50-50 split between the goalies, I like Petersen better because I think the Kings could be a pleasant surprise this year. He could push for 20 wins, and I won't ask for much more than that, especially if his ratios improve. 

I haven't drafted defensemen very well this year, by my own assessment, but some names I like in the late rounds are Mark Giordano, Mikhail Sergachev, Jake Muzzin and Ryan Pulock. There's not a lot of breakout potential here -- you know what you're going to get with these guys, and there's a dozen more like them to add from the waiver wire if they start slow. I'll give Sergachev the longest leash of the group. He's committed to a stronger two-way game this year after reaching the 30-point mark in 56 games. The Russian will get some power-play time, and I think he could have a career year while adding a little all-around category bonus. With my late-round blueliners, I want either 40-point potential or a ton of blocked shots and hits to give me better coverage. 

Do-Not-Draft List

Just as I have my favorites, I've got some players I don't want any part of this year. Be it team situation, injuries or a bad categorical fit with my rosters, I'll usually pass over these players. 

• I typically don't want to draft injured players too heavily, so I haven't rostered Sidney Crosby (wrist) or Evgeni Malkin (knee) in many places. I have no doubt they'll be solid once the season starts. That's also kept me away from depth options like Mike Hoffman (lower body), Brock Boeser (undisclosed) and Nicklas Backstrom (hip). It's nothing against them -- I just want to save my injury slots for those that will inevitably pop up during the season.
• I've stayed away from Penguins wingers Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust for the most part because they won't begin the year with their usual centers. The price is too high for me with all of the uncertainty factored in.
• On the blue line, I've prioritized toughness over pure scoring talent. At the very least, I want a well-rounded option. From this angle, I have no problem spending an early pick on Victor Hedman or Adam Fox, but I'm not grabbing Quinn Hughes or Morgan Rielly a few rounds later.
• A couple of Panthers that I don't think will sustain their performance from last year: MacKenzie Weegar and Sam Bennett. I followed Bennett closely when he was with the Flames, and while he'll get more of a chance in Florida, I'm not ready to trust him just yet. With Weegar, I think he's a solid two-way defenseman, but the scoring output I'm expecting (30 points) isn't matching the rather lofty draft position.
• I'm not sold on the Bruins' goalie tandem of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark. It's not just that they're replacing Tuukka Rask, who could return to the team when he's healthy after the calendar flips to 2022. Both Swayman and Ullmark are still more on the unproven side of things. I draft goalies aggressively, but I'd rather wait for a more certain workload or talent level from the likes of Jacob Markstrom or Thatcher Demko in the middle and late rounds.
• I've wavered in the past between drafting rookies late and going for more proven depth. This year, it's more of the latter. No offense to Trevor Zegras or Kirby Dach (or even William Eklund), but if I can find a 40-to-50 point talent in the final round, I'll take him.

A few more things

I mentioned the Bruins' goalie tandem as one I didn't like. My personal favorite tandems this year are the Islanders (Ilya Sorokin/Semyon Varlamov), the Blackhawks (Marc-Andre Fleury/Kevin Lankinen) and the Wild (Cam Talbot/Kaapo Kahkonen). In deeper formats, I haven't hesitated to pair up the Kraken's Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger or the Kings' Petersen and Quick. As mentioned, I draft goalies early most of the time, so I've often ended up with at least two solid workhorses on one team, allowing me to take more of a risk for a third or fourth goalie later on. I want guys I can trust, especially if they're going to be responsible for nearly half of my stats throughout the year. 

While I'm not drafting the Sharks' Eklund or the Ducks' Zegras heavily, I'm keeping an eye on the rookies. If I was coaching their respective teams, I'd give them free reign in a top-six role for the year. If they start hot, I'm running to add them, especially in keeper leagues. I'm still stunned Eklund dropped to seventh overall in this year's NHL Entry Draft. 

When it comes to bad teams, there are some you can mine fantasy talent from. Keep an eye on the Senators once Brady Tkachuk signs -- Josh Norris, Drake Batherson and Tim Stutzle should all see a boost, and Thomas Chabot is poised for a bounce-back year. With the Red Wings, I like Dylan Larkin and Filip Hronek as depth options. Patrik Laine and Oliver Bjorkstrand stand out as wingers to watch with the Blue Jackets, as does defenseman Zach Werenski. Points are points in fantasy, and plus-minus is an easy category to punt if you'd rather build on scoring talent. 

With all that said, I've got a couple of late drafts to do before the puck drops Tuesday night. I hope you'll take some time each Monday to hear me out as I take stock of the fantasy hockey world. I look forward to interacting in the comments if you have any questions, and you can also find me on Twitter if you want to discuss or debate. Good luck this year, fellow managers!