This article is part of our Hutch's Hockey series.
Hockey's back, and it's bringing all sorts of surprises with it. Just look at Saturday night: Utah's overtime thriller over the Rangers, the Blue Jackets and Blackhawks winning over the Avalanche and Oilers, respectively and continued scoring struggles for the Predators. There's a reason why the phrase is "looks good on paper." Anything can happen when skates and sticks hit the ice.
This is the time of year we're most prone to overreacting. It's a pretty simple formula: excitement for the new season plus a small sample of data equals jumping to conclusions. Keep in mind, that no one's ever won or lost a championship in the first week of the season. Look at what the Oilers did last year. They struggled for all of October and most of November before flipping a switch that took them to within a goal of a title.
There's another couple of words you'll hear thrown around a lot this week: regression and sustainability. Often, these are taken in too much of a black-and-white sense. Sure, a player like Zach Hyman or Sam Reinhart is set to regress this year. They were incredible last year, likely to an unrepeatable level. That doesn't mean they'll be complete slouches in 2024-25. Given the quality of the players around them, 35-40 goals and a point-per-game pace are still completely within reason. This is why there's so much emphasis on not overpaying for players from last season. You may have to miss out on them if they go
Hockey's back, and it's bringing all sorts of surprises with it. Just look at Saturday night: Utah's overtime thriller over the Rangers, the Blue Jackets and Blackhawks winning over the Avalanche and Oilers, respectively and continued scoring struggles for the Predators. There's a reason why the phrase is "looks good on paper." Anything can happen when skates and sticks hit the ice.
This is the time of year we're most prone to overreacting. It's a pretty simple formula: excitement for the new season plus a small sample of data equals jumping to conclusions. Keep in mind, that no one's ever won or lost a championship in the first week of the season. Look at what the Oilers did last year. They struggled for all of October and most of November before flipping a switch that took them to within a goal of a title.
There's another couple of words you'll hear thrown around a lot this week: regression and sustainability. Often, these are taken in too much of a black-and-white sense. Sure, a player like Zach Hyman or Sam Reinhart is set to regress this year. They were incredible last year, likely to an unrepeatable level. That doesn't mean they'll be complete slouches in 2024-25. Given the quality of the players around them, 35-40 goals and a point-per-game pace are still completely within reason. This is why there's so much emphasis on not overpaying for players from last season. You may have to miss out on them if they go too early, but if they drop a round, take them!
Sustainability can go both ways. Some players find the sweet spot right away, while others fluctuate through streaks. Ideally, your depth players in fantasy will always be on hot streaks by virtue of you making moves. It's also okay to ride out the cold spells with a player you like in hopes they'll turn things around. Just know when to cut your losses.
Onto the waiver wire. A reminder for those new to the column and those needing a refresher: recommendations are made on my home league's settings. We play with goals, assists, plus-minus rating, power-play points, shots on goal, hits and blocked shots for skaters, and wins, GAA, saves, save percentage and shutouts for goalies. I'll mention PIM if someone's really standing out in that area, but I'm more interested in stats that are largely within the player's control.
First up is Dylan Guenther, who is an obvious case for an unsustainable hot streak. He's scored five goals on 11 shots over Utah's first three games. Fantasy managers are flocking to him -- he was rostered in 58 percent of Yahoo leagues Saturday night and jumped up to 61 percent early Sunday. I'm likely only going to mention him once this year, and it's right now. He's got a great shot on a surprising team. He will slow down, and that's okay because he's got the tools to finish the year with 60-70 points. Grab him now, and it's up to you if you want to let him go later, but I'd hold on.
The next two players have greatly benefited from a change of scenery. Paul Cotter is doing work in New Jersey, even without power-play time. He has four goals, one assist, nine hits and eight shots on goal over four contests. I liked Cotter's game when he was in Vegas, but he never got a long leash to showcase it. The usage has been much the same in New Jersey, but I could see Cotter bumping Tomas Tatar off the second line at any point this season.
Teuvo Teravainen's return to Chicago got off to a sluggish start until a four-point explosion Saturday. He appears to have the longest runway for meshing with Connor Bedard. Chicago's forward group also has an interesting composition -- of the 14 forwards on the roster currently, just three of them are right-handed shooters, with Bedard being one of them. A lot of left-handed wingers will be on their off-side this year, which creates multiple paths to the top line. Teravainen and Nick Foligno are Bedard's wingers currently, and whoever holds down those top-line jobs should at least be on your fantasy radar.
It hasn't taken Kaiden Guhle long to draw my attention this year. I stayed away from him in drafts, partly due to my aggressive look at defense and mostly due to his appendectomy early in training camp. Guhle had 22 points in 70 outings last season, and he supplemented it with 116 hits and 178 blocked shots. Through three games, he's at three assists, a plus-5 rating and 14 blocks. He's on the first pairing but sees little power-play time, so there's a cap on his usefulness. If power-play production is more your speed, it may be worth looking at Lane Hutson over Guhle, but Guhle takes the cake for formats valuing physical play.
There was a lot of talk that Vegas' forward group wasn't up to par this season, and I still largely would agree with that. It hasn't been an issue so far, thanks to the Golden Knights' top line. Jack Eichel and Mark Stone won't be out there in most formats, but Ivan Barbashev can still be had in 44 percent of Yahoo leagues. Barbashev has six points, seven shots on net, four hits and a plus-4 rating through two games. He's put up back-to-back 45-point campaigns, and there's more pressure to produce this year since the roster is thin. He's also a reliable hits guy.
There's not enough buzz for Justin Faulk. I can understand some of the hesitancy -- the Blues' roster isn't great overall. The counterpoint is that the top power-play unit is full of fantasy-relevant forwards and Faulk, who won't face much of a challenge for that role even with Philip Broberg settling in nicely with the team. Faulk has four points, five blocked shots, three hits and a plus-1 rating over three games, and they were all on the road. Don't let last year's injury-riddled season hold you back, because the 32-year-old is in a position to succeed, perhaps to the level of earning his second 50-point season.
The Blue Jackets have caught my interest, specifically with a top line of Sean Monahan flanked by Yegor Chinakhov and Kirill Marchenko. I'll focus on Chinakhov this week, but all three could be good pick-ups after they each put up three points against the Avalanche on Saturday. Chinakhov is a 23-year-old winger who had 29 points in 53 contests last season. He shot 14.5 percent, which is a slight concern, but it appears a larger role will help offset regression in 2024-25. He's already matched his power-play production from each of the last two years (two points), so I'm willing to see where this talented winger takes things.
It feels like fantasy managers have been waiting for Barrett Hayton to pop for years. Injuries have gotten in the way, and that left him at the back of the mind when he was in Arizona. Now, with the franchise in Utah, Hayton is healthy and getting even-strength minutes between Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz. It's a great spot for any player, and it doesn't look like head coach Andre Tourigny will rotate centers through pairs of wingers as often as he did last year. Hayton has five points and 11 shots through three games, and it's looking like this is the year the fifth-overall pick from 2018 puts it all together. Even if he drops to the second line, he'd be feeding passes to the aforementioned Guenther.
A lot of times, when regression is mentioned, it's seen as a dirty word. For some players though, it's the opposite -- regression is a two-way street, with one year's underwhelming performance turning into a bounce-back campaign for the next. Perhaps that's what we're seeing with Jonathan Huberdeau, who already has five points through three games. He was a six-time 20-goal scorer before missing that mark in each of the last two years. The Flames' offense is a weird one, with what could be described as three second lines that look like a bit of a mishmash, and that's without top prospect Matthew Coronato just making his season debut Sunday. Huberdeau could go cold at any time, just look at the last two seasons, but it's just as likely this is the year he gets back to being a points-and-shots force in fantasy.
I was ready to come into this column without giving a second thought to Detroit's goaltending. Two things changed that -- Cam Talbot shut out the Predators on Saturday night, and Ville Husso was waived Sunday morning. I stay away from three-headed monsters in fantasy on principle. Playing time, especially in the crease, is more valuable than any other statistic. If it's Talbot and Alex Lyon moving forward, Talbot has a good chance of being the No. 1. He showed he can handle a high shot volume from a dangerous opponent in Saturday's 42-save shutout. I won't make a hasty move, but my eyes are open.
I said it throughout the preseason, and I'll say it again -- I think the Ducks are a better team than people are giving them credit for. I think a lot of that comes from Lukas Dostal getting more time between the pipes. I won't take a victory lap on a shutout win over the Sharks, but I'm convinced the 24-year-old should be the No. 1 netminder even when John Gibson (appendectomy) is ready to return. Dostal is going to be the team's goalie of the future, and the future might as well be now.
One more goalie to keep an eye on is Sam Montembeault. The 27-year-old has held the Maple Leafs and Senators to a combined one goal on 73 shots in his first two starts of the year. I don't love the Canadiens' defense, but it's not necessarily a liability for the goalies. Montembeault should have no trouble keeping the No. 1 job after Cayden Primeau gave up six goals in his season debut. I've already added Montembeault in a couple of spots to help cover for Joseph Woll's (lower body) absence.
The key to the early weeks of the season is to keep a level head. There's always a gut instinct to drop an underperforming player, especially when there are shiny new toys on the wire. There's always been a player I regret dropping early every year. Last year, I did that when Pavel Buchnevich had three points through his first nine games. It was too late to go back when he rattled off 15 points over his next 11. Now's not the time to dump top-100 projected players. Keep your changes to the fringes of your roster, but remember that the first week is just another part of the season. Don't compare three or four games to a whole season's worth of numbers.
Above all, enjoy the new season. It feels like there's a giant wave of talent every season, and it's exciting. It's fine to soak in the fandom without thinking about fantasy during the games. I'll be back next week with more early-season reactions and waiver-wire plays.
