Frozen Fantasy: Lessons from Losing

Losing is hard. Just ask the Sabres. The Pegula problem is real.

Losing in fantasy is hard, too. It's been a tough year. On the ice and off. And in the fantasy arena.

My Friends and Fantasy team swung up and down all year. I squeaked into the playoffs (it's head-to-head), but COVID struck again.

Suddenly, I was staring at a roster with 54 potential games competing against an opponent with 73. And a four pick-up limit. I used them all, but knew I had no chance.

Still, it was fun. And it's been a good week to analyze what went wrong and where my assumptions went astray.

Here's my Friends and Family draft list and my final squad. Any numbers listed like this (1.7/1.9) show round drafted/current rating.

Andrei Vasilevskiy (1.7/1.9) and Dougie Hamilton (4.4/4.1) met expectations. Brad Marchand (2.4/3.1) came close. But Brayden Point (3.7/9.1) was a horrible pick. So yes, you can screw up right off the top. Point is a one-season wonder. Nothing more. I overestimated him, just like a lot of other folks did.

Middle rounds really do make or break a team. I got lucky with Ryan O'Reilly (6.4) who performed like a third rounder and Tyson Barrie (11.7) who has delivered like a sixth rounder. But that wasn't enough.

Tristan Jarry (8.4/16.5), Teuvo Teravainen (7.7/injured). William Nylander (9.7/14.6) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (10.4/26.3) hurt me more than they helped. I won't even talk about Anthony DeAngelo, my so-called steal in the 12th round. Spit.

I let center slide at the draft and that was a mistake. Neither Point nor Kuznetsov is really trusted at the dot. O'Reilly was outstanding in all categories and I got lucky with waiver pickup Jordan Staal, who is still performing like a 4th rounder.

Never ignore pure, multi-categorical talent - especially up front. It will win in the end. Pile it on up front and let categories like hits and blocks get filled with defenders. Bottom line? Don't get cute. Don't overthink. I have a lot of time to think about that, now that my Friends and Family season is done.

Now, let's take a look at who caught my eye.

Nick Bonino, RW/C, Minnesota (3 percent Yahoo!) – Bonino's season was entirely forgettable… until this week. As in nine points in 39 games forgettable. Then in two games, he put up five points (two goals, three assists). It's going to be short lived, but that can be enough to help you win your week.

Tyler Bozak, RW/C, St. Louis (1 percent Yahoo!) – This is a short-term pick up for sure. Bozak moved up to the third line with Robert Thomas out and he's performing well there. He's on a four-game, five-point streak and he's dishing to sniper Mike Hoffman, who's finally playing like he should. Bozak also wins face-offs and can fill in on the PP. If he can keep it up, he might stick on the third line when Thomas comes back in a week. At minimum, Bozak is a solid weeklong roll.  

Jeff Carter, LW/RW/C, Pittsburgh (25 percent Yahoo!) – What does Carter have left? Enough obviously to get the attention of the astute Pens, a team that successfully finds guys that fit their style. Carter immediately stepped onto the second line with Jared McCann and Jason Zucker, and we'll soon see how fresh his legs are. He will get PP time and his hands are still soft and slick. At this point, desperation means taking risks. I rolled the dice Friday morning hoping for a big weekend.

Lars Eller, C, Washington (4 percent Yahoo!) – The veteran had a big week – two goals and three assists with a plus-5 rating and 35 faceoff wins - and added another assist Saturday. He even helped a little with a blocked shot, hit and a handful of shots. Eller runs hot and cold, but the Caps are strong and he plays an important role. And he's warm, which is more than I can say about a lot of guys right now.

Thomas Greiss, G, Detroit (6 percent Yahoo!) – Yes, it's Detroit. Yes, they traded away Anthony Mantha. But this team has something to prove at season's end – guys are trying to win jobs. Greiss is going to surprise. He won't necessarily win loads of games, but here's a glimpse of where his game is right now. Greiss is 3-1 in his last four starts heading into the weekend and he's only allowed eight goals in that span. And his wins were against – wait for it – Tampa Bay and Carolina (and Chicago). Greiss will battle and he'll help you.

David Krejci, C, Boston (30 percent Yahoo!) – Krejci got a new linemate last week. He's on a three-game point streak this week. Krejci is also firing pucks, blocking shots and winning face-offs. All that adds up to a top-25 week. And potentially many more until season's end. Multi-categorical production on a contending team is hard to find on the wire. Krejci is worth adding.

Jamie Oleksiak, D, Dallas (12 percent Yahoo!) – Oleksiak isn't even the best athlete in his family, but he's been on a real roll of late. He quietly delivered top-30 production last week on the back of a goal, assist, eight shots and 11 each of hits and blocks. I picked the big man up earlier this week for my desperate quarterfinal match in the Friends and Family league. Unfortunately, he was my best player over the week, so you understand my fate. But that's more a condemnation of the rest of my squad, not him. Oleksiak and the Stars have a few more games in hand than some other teams and that matters at this time of the year.

Craig Smith, RW, Boston (42 percent Yahoo!) – Smith thrives in high-danger areas and fires a lot of pucks. His new linemate Taylor Hall is really, really good at passing into high-danger areas. That sounds like a union made in heaven. Smith had 14 points in the last 11 games heading into the weekend. Check the wire because this seems like a union made in heaven.

Back to losing lessons.

The waiver wire has proven to be invaluable, but I still didn't get ruthless enough, soon enough.

Yes, nine of my current 20 guys came off the wire. That's a lot of turnover. Jordan Staal (4.3 current), Martin Necas (8.2) and Radko Gudas (12.1) have been invaluable.

I hung onto Kuznetsov all season. Ditto Alexander Radulov. And I only just dropped Teravainen. Earlier moves might have moved me up the standings a spot or two. And that would have meant a better quarterfinal match-up this week.

And maybe a win. Sigh. Now to see if I can remember these lessons while I play out the final few weeks in my other Yahoo! leagues.

Until next week.