Frozen Fantasy: Are the Playoffs Already Set?

U.S. Thanksgiving. Some 80 percent of teams in a playoff spot that day stay in a playoff spot. 13 teams stay. Three go. Give or take.

So which three?

The East looks solid already. Florida, Toronto and Tampa in the Atlantic with Carolina, Washington and the NY Rangers in the Metropolitan. The wild card spots belong to Columbus and Pittsburgh.

The West is a bit more variable. Minnesota, St. Louis and Winnipeg in the Central. Calgary, Edmonton and Anaheim in the Pacific. Wild card teams would be Vegas and Colorado.

No Nashville. No Dallas or Chicago.

No Boston or New Jersey. And no NY Islanders, a preseason Cup fave.

The Isles are doomed. That's a hole too deep to climb out of, even if they play .700 hockey going forward.

I think Columbus, Winnipeg and the Rangers will fall out. I hear you, but I'm not sure Igor Shesterkin can keep this up. Ditto Chris Kreider. Blake Wheeler has to be hurt. And I like Oliver Bjorkstrand, but I don't think he's a point-per-game player.

Boston, New Jersey and Nashville will climb in. Juuse Saros is one of the best in the league. Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak are, well, Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak.

Jack Hughes will be back soon. And I actually like the Mackenzie Blackwood and Jonathan Bernier tandem.

Is your team on the outside looking in? Which teams do you think are in or out? I'd love to hear… and debate.

Now let's take a look at who caught my eye this week.

Vladislav Gavrikov, D, Columbus (18 percent Yahoo!) – Same bat time, same bat place. Or not? Gavrikov has done this before – he goes on warm streaks that drive him to fantasy rosters. And then he slows down. But hot is hot, and this time might just be different. Heading into Saturday, Gavrikov was on a three-game, five-point streak (two goals, three assists). But he also has 12 points (two goals, 10 assists) and a plus-14 rating in 18 games. That matches his output over 55 contests last season. Gavrikov's shooting percentage is artificially high and there's no PP potential. But he does deliver hits and blocks, and that's a great combination.

Noah Hanifin, D, Calgary (13 percent Yahoo!) – I mentioned Hanifin a few weeks ago and he's back on my radar – that's a good sign. The guy has slick wheels, but the fantasy production has never followed. But this week, Hanifin put up five points - including four assists - over three games heading into Saturday. And two of those helpers have come on the PP. He's always delivered hits and blocks with some five-on-five offense. But adding PPP takes his value up several notches.

Clayton Keller, LW/RW, Arizona (16 percent Yahoo!) – Evan Berofsky covered Keller in his Pickups of the Week piece, so I won't spend much time on him. Other than to say maturity means everything. He rang up an incredible rookie season and was the apple of every fantasy eye. But he couldn't carry a crappy, dysfunctional team. Until now. This could finally be the ascension to stardom we'd given up on. Keller is worth watching, especially for keeper leagues, because he'll come at a discount.

Ryan Johansen, C, Nashville (17 percent Yahoo!) – Johansen is on pace for as good a season as he's ever had. This past week, he's been a playmaking maestro with six assists in four games (one goal, too). And three came with the man advantage. He's also won 32 face-offs in four games. Johansen has always been judged harshly for not living up to his fourth-overall billing, but it's hard to look away from a possible 50-assist performance with high-end power-play potential.

Valeri Nichushkin, LW/RW, Colorado (12 percent Yahoo!) – Nazem Kadri has been hot, and that means he's highly rostered. So why not look at his linemate Nichushkin. Since returning from injury, the winger has four goals, two assists, 11 SOG and seven hits. And a plus-eight rating. Nichushkin has never lived up to the dreams that he might be Evgeni Malkin-lite, but every fantasy manager needs solid, complementary scorers to round out their lineup. He may finally be in that class.

Jake Oettinger, G, Dallas (40 percent Yahoo!) – Oettinger is the new top dawg in Texas. And yes, at the expense of Anton Khudobin, the guy who carried the Stars last season when they needed it most. It was only a matter of time this happened. And unless Braden Holtby is traded, the Stars will likely rely on Oettinger and Holtby in the blue paint. Oettinger is 4-0 with a 1.26 GAA and .959 save percentage, and he's done it against the Blues, Oilers and Avs. Get on board. Now.

Marcus Pettersson, D, Pittsburgh (1 percent Yahoo!) – Pettersson isn't sexy, but he may prove to be quite valuable in deep leagues. Just like he was two seasons ago, and maybe a little more. He's quietly steady and on pace for a 25-point season. But Pettersson's game has become a bit more physical, and he has 150 hits in his sights. That makes him a pylon-plus for those formats that need some muscle, without completely sacrificing points.

Tage Thompson, LW/RW/C, Buffalo (32 percent Yahoo!) – Thompson has oozed potential for a while, but at 6-7, he's had to grow into his massive wingspan. It looks like he's finally there. Thompson has been one of the Sabres' top forwards this season. He's centering the top line with Jeff Skinner and Rasmus Asplund and has 10 goals and five assists across 20 games. Five of those goals have come in the last four, along with 14 SOG and 22 FW. He notched two goals Friday night. Fantasy managers are snapping Thompson up, and with good reason.

Back to the playoffs.

I feel for the Isles. What an abysmal start. The team isn't this bad, but their record is horrendous. I'm not sure how this happened – starting the season with so many road games isn't the whole story.

It sure is hard to watch. And it would be a major miracle for them to claw their way back into contention.

I'd really love for the Devils to live up to my prediction. There isn't a day that goes by that I don't think of my late friend and former RotoWire writer, Dan Pennucci. He was a die-hard Devils fan.

He'd like this group. And their potential. Me, too.

Until next week.