This article is part of our FanDuel NHL series.
SLATE PREVIEW
It's Carey Price vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy in the Stanley Cup Final, and I'd be surprised if any team manages to score more than three goals in any game. Of course, knowing my luck, the two teams will end up trading goals all series. In the previous season, the Habs went 0-4 against the Lightning trailing 6-14 in goals scored, and average of nearly four goals per game.
This is a different Habs team, however, one that has added Tyler Toffoli and Cole Caufield, and the Lightning may be $18 million over the cap but there's zero chance Nikita Kucherov is 100 percent healthy. The Lightning have also made a bad habit of losing the first home game of every series, while the Habs have opened on the road every single time and have gone 2-1 in series-openers.
If you look at the list of Golden Knights forwards who managed to score against the Habs, it's very short: Nicolas Roy, Max Pacioretty, Reilly Smith and Mattias Janmark -- that's it, and Roy was the only one who scored more than once. It was the first time the Knights had faced the Habs all season, and they seemed shellshocked at how good their defense was. I think it will be a similar story for the Lightning, whose top forwards may find it difficult to score against Phillip Danault and a tough defense, which means it'll be the role players who have to find a way.
If the Lightning manage to successfully defend their title, they will join the Penguins as the only teams to win back-to-back in the salary cap era. Not even the Blackhawks, Bruins or Kings in their most dominant years managed to accomplish the feat.
Puck drop is at 8 p.m. EDT.
As with all FanDuel showdown formats, no goalies are available for selection and a Captain can be designated for 1.5x fantasy points. The remaining roster spots are not restricted by position.
VALUE PLAYS
Yanni Gourde, TB vs. MON ($8,500): Continuing from the slate preview, it'll most likely be depth scoring that makes the difference in this series. Gourde has scored three goals in his past five games and has six goals and nine points in 14 career games against the team in his home province.
Corey Perry, MON at TB ($7,500): The savvy veteran didn't score a goal against Vegas but his presence was felt throughout the entire series. The Lightning can play any style but the Habs aren't as versatile and prefer to close gaps and give their opponent as little time and space as possible to open things up. That's a good recipe for Perry, who is at his best when the puck is being fought for in the crease or in the corners.
LINE STACKS
Brayden Point ($15,000), Nikita Kucherov ($14,000), Ondrej Palat ($9,000)
It's best not to overthink it between two teams that have not met this season, and also assume that having a less-than-healthy Kucherov in the lineup is much, much better than not having him at all. If the Habs are the extra-strength Islanders – as Elliotte Friedman calls them – then they'll likely get outshot most of the time. We will lean on the Lightning's vaunted top line with Kucherov and Point, who rank first and second in playoff scoring.
DEFENSEMEN
Victor Hedman, TB vs. MON ($11,500): It'll be interesting to see which line Jon Cooper wants Hedman to match up against, but in all likelihood, Hedman will face all of the top three lines at least once and will play in all key situations. He's still the only defenseman who is scoring at the same pace as a top-six forward.
Mikhail Sergachev, TB vs. MON ($7,500): Vegas was forced to generate a lot of offense from their back end because the Habs were so good at keeping their forwards in check. Tampa's defensemen aren't nearly as good at jumping up, but if there's anybody who might it's Sergachev. He skates well and moves the puck well, and note that Sergachev, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak have combined for 70 shots but zero goals so far in the playoffs after combining for 13 goals on 278 shots (4.7 S%) during the season.
