Best 4 Nations Face-Off Bets Today: Expert Picks for Monday, February 17

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Published on February 17, 2025

The 4 Nations Face-Off Tournament continues Monday at TD Garden in Boston, as round-robin play wraps up. At 1 p.m. ET on TNT/truTV/Max, the doubleheader kicks off with Canada taking on Finland. At 8 p.m. ET, Sweden battle Team USA, also on TNT/truTV/Max. Team USA is already qualified for the Final on Thursday, but the other three teams are each tied with two points apiece, trying to earn the right to face the Americans. We'll take a look at some same-game parlay (SGP) opportunities for these matches. Let's get started.

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Expert 4 Nations Face-Off Picks for Monday, Feb. 17

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Canada vs. Finland - 1:00 p.m. ET

Canada and Finland each have identical records heading into this matchup, with each side posting an overtime victory with one loss in regulation.

Canada suffered a 3-1 loss Saturday against Team USA at Bell Centre in Montreal. The highly contentious game featured three fights in the opening nine seconds of play, as USA's Matthew Tkachuk of the Florida Panthers and Canada's Brandon Hagel of the Tampa Bay Lightning went toe-to-toe. Brady Tkachuk of the Ottawa Senators also danced with Florida Panther forward Sam Bennett, while Canada's Colton Parayko got the best of USA's J.T. Miller, and the latter also had a cross-checking penalty, too.

Now, Canada faces a must-win situation against Finland, if it wants to set up a rematch with Team USA in Thursday's final. Prior to the tournament, Canada was a slight favorite, but it faces not making it out of round-robin play, depending upon its result Monday, as well as the result of Sweden vs. USA.

Canada showed decent physicality, fighting aside, in the USA loss Saturday. It had 29 total hits, although Team USA had 34.

The Canadians were without Colorado's Cale Makar on Saturday due to an undisclosed illness, as Dallas' Thomas Harley made the emergency start.

Canada bench boss Jon Cooper might also be forced to juggle things in the net, as St. Louis' Jordan Binnington has allowed five goals on 48 shots. He hasn't been terrible, but he hasn't been sharp, either. Vegas' Adin Hill could be an option, while Montreal's Sam Montembeault is less likely. If he was going to play, it likely would have been at Bell Centre where he plays normally.

Finland outlasted Sweden 4-3 in OT on Saturday, staving off elimination, and keeping hope alive of setting up a rematch with Team USA. The Finns were belted 6-1 in the opener by the Americans but looked much better Saturday.

Anton Lundell had an even-strength marker to level the score 1-1 in the first period, while Mikko Rantanen struck on the power play late in the first, with helpers to Carolina teammate Sebastian Aho and Patrik Laine. The Swedes scored two in the first 10:32 of the second period to take a 3-2 lead, but Aleksander Barkov scored late in the second to make it 3-3. That's how it stayed until overtime when Mikael Granlund won it for the Finns.

Head coach Antti Pennanen made the switch to Kevin Lankinen from Juuse Saros, and the move paid off. Lankinen stopped 21 of the 24 shots he faced, so it's all but guaranteed he faces Canada, with Saros at the ready, should he be needed.

It's hard to envision Canada bowing out against Finland, but the latter did show tremendous moxie staying alive under adverse conditions against a good Sweden side. You have to back a desperate Canadian side here, but doing so on the moneyline is too expensive. Hold your breath, and hope for a win by two or more goals. We'll also go low on the total, given that there is so much at stake. The action won't likely be end-to-end, but rather conservative, at least initially. If you're really willing to roll the dice, Canada -2.5 (+115, ESPN Bet) is available on the alternate line, too.

Canada -1.5 (-145 at BetMGM)
Under 6.5 Goals (-130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

USA vs. Sweden - 8:00 p.m. ET

In the evening game, the United States has already punched its ticket to Thursday's final with six points in the first two games. It pounded Finland 6-1, before beating Canada 3-1 in Montreal on Saturday.

Entering the tournament, the USA forwards looked strong on paper, with a good defensive core and strong goaltending, led by Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck. That has been the case so far in this tournament, as the Americans haven't disappointed.

Sweden had a chance to get the leg up on both Canada and Finland on Saturday, but it blew a 3-2 lead against its Scandinavian neighbors, eventually losing 4-3 in OT.

Filip Gustavsson made the start, but he allowed two goals on just four shots, and he was replaced by Ottawa's Linus Ullmark. The latter made 15 saves on 17 shots, which wasn't bad for coming on cold to start the second period.

Mika Zibanejad had an unassisted goal, while Rasmus Dahlin and Erik Karlsson had markers in the second period. Lucas Raymond chipped in with his third assist in two games on the Dahlin goal, too, while Joel Eriksson Ek had his second point in two goals, giving him a goal and an assist in this tournament.

Sweden is likely to turn to Ullmark in his old stomping grounds in Boston. It remains to be seen how motivated and outgoing the USA will be with a berth in the final, which is already locked up. You can't rest anyone, but will this team be nearly as hungry after the emotional win in Canada?

Let's back Sweden on the puck line, as they're still hungry and playing for something. For USA, it is possible Boston's Jeremy Swayman makes the start opposite his old teammate Ullmark, and/or perhaps Dallas' Jake Oettinger gets the start, or sometime in the second or third period. The Americans could elect to keep Hellebuyck fresh for Thursday. Either way, Sweden isn't likely to light up any one of three American tendies. We'll go low on the total at ESPN Bet, which is offering Under 6.5, and it is available as an alternate total at other shops.

Sweden +1.5 (-150 at Bet365 Sportsbook)
Under 6.5 Goals (-135 at ESPN Bet Sportsbook)

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Today's Best Hockey Bet(s)

We went low on the USA-Canada match on Saturday, and that was never in jeopardy in a physical, low-scoring game. In fact, it was 2-1 late until an empty-net goal gave us a fourth score.

For Monday's tilt, let's go with the Under 6.5 in Sweden-USA on Monday night.