This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
The Honda Classic
Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
PGA National (Champion Course) - Par 70 - 7,125 yards
Field - 144 Entrants
Purse - $7.0M
The Preview
The dreaded Bear Trap at PGA National -- consisting of holes 15, 16, and 17 -- is primed to wreak havoc on the field at the Honda Classic where the Florida Swing commences at a venue that features one of the toughest non-major setups we'll see on Tour all season. Just one of the past seven winners has reached double-digit red numbers by the 72nd hole, but sunny skies throughout the weekend could allow scoring conditions to improve if the wind howls at a manageable clip. Nonetheless, trouble looms all over the place at PGA National as a handful of water hazards create great opportunities for the occasional disaster hole. Quality iron play has been a marker of success here, so a primary indicator of potential will be SG: Approach while seven of the 18 holes are par-4s that measure between 400 and 450 yards.
Recent Champions
2019 - Keith Mitchell
2018 - Justin Thomas
2017 - Rickie Fowler
2016 - Adam Scott
2015 - Padraig Harrington
2014 - Russell Henley
2013 - Michael Thompson
2012 - Rory McIlroy
2011 - Rory Sabbatini
2010 - Camilo Villegas
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
P4: 400-450 efficiency
Bogey avoidance
SG: Putting (bermuda)
Yahoo Value Picks - based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Tommy Fleetwood - $45
The similarly priced Brooks Koepka, Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler have produced red flags in recent weeks with below-average results by their standards, but Fleetwood continues to chug along with finishes of T18-T11-T2-2-Win since his victory at the European Tour's Nedbank Golf Challenge. The Englishman racked up six final-round birdies during his most recent appearance at the WGC-Mexico Championship, and he posted a solo-fourth here at PGA National in his Honda Classic debut two years ago. Fleetwood has gained an average of four strokes from tee to green per event throughout his last five measured starts.
Gary Woodland - $43
Woodland rebounded from a MC-T40 stretch by gaining over six strokes off the tee last week at the Club de Golf Chapultepec, where he ultimately tied for 12th and also ranked fifth in scrambling. He's 12th in SG: Approach over his past 12 rounds and has never missed a cut in seven career trips to the Honda Classic, highlighted by a T2 in 2017.
Glue Guys
Billy Horschel - $35
Back-to-back T9s at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and WGC-Mexico Championship will make Horschel a popular selection in this price range by default, and he's finished T16 or better in three of his last four Honda Classic appearances as well. The former Florida Gator has been elite with the flat stick from 15-25 feet on bermuda greens throughout the past 12 months and he currently ranks 16th on Tour in SG: Putting, but he's also 22nd in par-4 scoring average.
Shane Lowry - $34
The 2019 Open champion will be unbothered by potentially wet and windy conditions along the southeastern coast of Florida. Lowry just gained 2.6 strokes on approach shots at the WGC-Mexico Championship and has placed T29-T13-T11 in three starts dating back to the Omega Dubai Desert Classic in late January. There is nothing noteworthy about the Irishman's Honda Classic resume, however, so moderate ownership percentages are possible for Lowry.
Daniel Berger - $33
Berger lives nearby in Jupiter and played his collegiate golf at Florida State, so it's no surprise that he felt comfortable enough to force a playoff with eventual champion Padraig Harrington at PGA National in 2015. He'll be on chalk alert at such an affordable expense this week, especially after collecting consecutive top-10s at the WMPO and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Over his last 12 rounds, Berger ranks second in SG: Tee-to-Green and ninth in SG: Approach.
Bargain Bin
Charl Schwartzel - $24
Coming off a T5 in his most recent showing at Pebble Beach, Schwartzel's severe discount here at PGA National where he owns four top-20s in six attempts doesn't make a whole lot of sense. The South African gained over five strokes from tee to green at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and he generally grades out well on difficult courses with bermuda greens like PGA National. Hopefully the three straight missed cuts from the South African Open to the WMPO scare of fellow gamers, or Schwartzel figures to be fairly high-owned at $24.
Luke List - $20
List has fallen right around 100 spots in the Official World Golf Ranking since missing the cut at last year's Honda Classic, but he might be turning things around as of late with three consecutive finishes of T36 or better from the Farmers Insurance Open to the Genesis Invitational. Over his last eight rounds, List ranks top-16 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Around-the-Green, but he's also gained strokes on approaches in four straight expeditions to PGA National. He earned solo runner-up honors here in 2018, after all.
