This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
Believe it or not, professional golf events and the NCAA basketball tournament have a lot in common. Both are often decided by inches; both are snap shots of a specific moment and aren't meant to prove anything; and both cause people to lose all sense of logic.
OK, the first point is a bit of a joke and my way of poking fun at any commentator who uses the phrase, "[insert game] is a game of inches," which is true of all sports, so singling out one sport as "the" game of inches is ridiculous.
As for the other two points, they actually go hand in hand. At some point in the last 20 years or so, sports fans decided that sporting events were held to prove things rather than crown champions. Case in point, the NCAA Tournament, which according to my Twitter feed, is meant to prove many things, not the least of which is, which conference is the best, which conference is overrated, which conference is underrated, how badly the committee screwed-up the seeding and so on. But in fact the tournament is there to crown a champion, not proclaim which team is the best. There's a subtle distinction there, but it is there.
The PGA Tour is not immune from this phenomenon, either. Golf fans often jump the gun after seeing a player play well for four days, proclaiming said player as, "the favorite for the next major" or "the next big thing." If we've learned anything
Believe it or not, professional golf events and the NCAA basketball tournament have a lot in common. Both are often decided by inches; both are snap shots of a specific moment and aren't meant to prove anything; and both cause people to lose all sense of logic.
OK, the first point is a bit of a joke and my way of poking fun at any commentator who uses the phrase, "[insert game] is a game of inches," which is true of all sports, so singling out one sport as "the" game of inches is ridiculous.
As for the other two points, they actually go hand in hand. At some point in the last 20 years or so, sports fans decided that sporting events were held to prove things rather than crown champions. Case in point, the NCAA Tournament, which according to my Twitter feed, is meant to prove many things, not the least of which is, which conference is the best, which conference is overrated, which conference is underrated, how badly the committee screwed-up the seeding and so on. But in fact the tournament is there to crown a champion, not proclaim which team is the best. There's a subtle distinction there, but it is there.
The PGA Tour is not immune from this phenomenon, either. Golf fans often jump the gun after seeing a player play well for four days, proclaiming said player as, "the favorite for the next major" or "the next big thing." If we've learned anything from watching golf in our lifetime, it's that one week does not prove anything other than the guy who won, was the guy who won.
Grand proclamations cannot be proved in the short term. It takes time, often years, to actually prove anything grand. Is it possible to prove a golfer can win a major in the span of one week? Of course, but you can't prove to be the best golfer in the world over the span of one week or one month. The same holds true for the NCAA Tournament. Two weeks from now, there will be a champion, but nothing will be proven, other than certain teams played well under certain conditions.
Two months ago, Justin Thomas was on fire. He had just picked up his third win of the season and looked unstoppable, which is why many speculated that his chances at Augusta were second to none. If those people were to learn from the past, they would have known that it's easy to get caught up in the moment, but that Thomas hadn't proved his ability to play well at August, he'd simply proven his ability to play well under certain conditions. You'd think by now, that we would have figured this out, but 12 months from today, we'll likely be going over this again.
This week: WGC Dell Match Play Championship - Austin Country Club, Austin, Texas
Last Year: Jason Day beat Louis Oosthuizen in the final for the victory.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Louis Oosthuizen
Unlike most weeks, there are actually three things to consider when selecting your golfers for the match-play event. There are, of course, track record and current form, but unlike stroke-play events, you have to consider how a golfer fares in the match-play format. Oosthuizen has two of the three cornered as his play here last year has second to only Jason Day, and he's been a beast in this format the Last three years, finishing in the top 5 each time.
Rory McIlroy
Although he hasn't won on the PGA Tour this year, he's come close a couple times, including a down-to-the-wire finish last week. His form is not in question, neither is his match-play ability -- did you see the Ryder Cup? He also played well on this course last year as he finished fourth at this event. He won this event the year prior on a different course.
Matt Kuchar
Due to the nature of an event like this where you can be bounced after one bad day, it not the best idea to burn a top-tier guy, but a guy like Kuchar is perfect. He's rarely a factor at the majors now, yet he's a golfer capable of winning an event like this. He's also a safe pick as he's advanced past the first round here in all but one of his seven starts.
Jason Day
If not for his recent form, Day would be at the top of the list this week, but his play recently is a little concerning. That said, he has won this event twice in the last three years, one of which came on this course. It's certainly risky using a golfer of his caliber in a one-and-done format, but this might be a good time to strike when he's a bit under the radar.
Tommy Fleetwood
Unfortunately, Fleetwood was not in the field last year at this event, so we don't have any course history for him, but he played well at this event the year prior, when he finished with a top-5. He's also got current form on his side as well as he's played very well in the states his last two starts with a runner-up and a T10.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Justin Thomas
Thomas is certainly in a funk. Yes, he did post a top-5 in Mexico a couple weeks back, but he's missed the cut in three of his last five starts and played poorly on this course last year on his way to a T61. Thomas also has limited match-play experience, which when coupled with everything else working against him this week, makes him a poor selection.
Thomas Pieters
Pieters has been up and down this season, and while he's shown plenty of upside, this doesn't look like the place for him. Pieters has missed the cut in two of his last three events, one of which was a brutal 77-76 at Arnie's event last week.
Jason Dufner
Dufner just doesn't seem to thrive in the match-play environment as proof by his results at this event. Dufner has only one top-10 in five starts at this event and while his form lately has been solid, it's probably not enough to overcome his difficulties in this format.
Lee Westwood
Westwood has a long history at this event, with 16 starts in total. The problem is, he has only two top-10s in those 16 starts. Westwood has had plenty of success in the Ryder Cup, but most of that has come with a partner, his solo record is under .500 and his overall record at this event is not very good, either.
Danny Willett
Willett's troubles on the course since his win at Augusta last year have been well documented, and my personal opinion is he won't exercise his demons until he defends his title at the Masters, which means his troubles will continue this week in Austin. With the Masters in everyone's sights, it will be tough for Willett to play well this week.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Henrik Stenson (MC) - $0; Season - $3,171,324
This week: Tommy Fleetwood - Consecutive missed cuts after Henrik Stenson's awful performance last week, but I have a feeling I'll cash this week with Tommy Fleetwood (only those that WD don't get paid). Fleetwood has played very well on this side of the pond lately and is no stranger to going up against tough fields.
YAHOO PICKS
Points: 1,546
Rank: 22,991
This Week: N/A
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Henrik Stenson - (MC); Streak - 0
This week: Scott Brown (Puerto Rico) - Added bonus this week. There is no cut in Austin, but there is an opposite event being held in Puerto Rico and some survivor pools may be using that event, so is that's the case, then Brown is your man. His track record here is great, and although he's missed his last two cuts, he made the cut in his previous eight starts.
