WGC-HSBC Champions Recap: Rose Victory Stuns

Dustin Johnson's enormous six-stroke lead entering the final round of the WGC-HSBC Champions began to get smaller. He bogeyed the first hole, then the second. But even still, there really wasn't any sense he was in danger. The No. 1 golfer in the world remained calm, the Golf Channel announcers stayed level. Hours later, even when the lead was down to a single stroke with four holes to play, what was happening still didn't really register.

The only way to explain it is: We were watching something taking place halfway around the world in China in the middle of the night here, and it didn't seem quite real. Johnson couldn't possibly lose a six-stroke lead. It wasn't something happening all at once; it was slow-motion drip, drip, drip.

But only after Johnson bogeyed Nos. 15 and 16, while Justin Rose was birdieing both 16 and 17 in the group ahead, did it really sink: Holy Jean van de Velde! Johnson was about to tie the record for blowing the biggest 54-hole lead in PGA Tour history.

Rose stunningly wound up with a two-stroke victory over Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Henrik Stenson at Sheshan International in Shanghai, the Englishman's first win since capturing Olympic gold at the 2016 Rio Games. Rose's deficit, mind you, wasn't six entering Sunday -- that was Koepka's. Rose was eight back.

"The beginning of the day, I was playing for second," Rose said flatly, according to the Associated Press.

Okay, here's the historical context:

Johnson matched Sergio Garcia from 2005 at Quail Hollow and of course Greg Norman at the 1996 Masters for losing six-stroke, final-round leads.

There actually have been two PGA Tour comebacks of more than eight shots, which was Rose's deficit, and that's where van de Velde comes into play. Paul Lawrie was 10 behind the flummoxed Frenchman at the 1999 Open Championship, and Stewart Cink was nine back of Ted Purdy at Hilton Head in 2004.

While Johnson played the back nine in 3-over 39 for a 5-over 77, Rose played the back eight better for a 67.

Where does this all shakeout fantasy-wise? Here we go:

MONDAY BACKSPIN

Dustin Johnson

This was nothing like when Johnson gagged away majors. Yes, he shot a 77, but it really wasn't a horrible 77. "I felt fine all day," Johnson told the AP. "I just could never get anything going and didn't hole any putts. It was pretty simple." That's pretty much what happened. Unfortunately for Johnson, it cost him the chance to become the first golfer to win three WGCs in the same year (not even Tiger Woods did it). Johnson is still ranked first in the OWGR, will still be there at year's end and beyond, will still be a force in the big tournaments. We probably won't see him again till the Hero World Challenge after Thanksgiving. He won't even remember this by then. That's because he probably forgot it by the time he got on the plane heading home.

Justin Rose

Rose moves to No. 6 in the world, his highest standing in two years, with a chance to get even higher as he heads to the European Tour playoffs this week. Outside of being runner-up at the Masters, the year was a disappointment for Rose until recently. He finished top-10 in all four FedEx Cup playoff events and now he has the second-biggest win of his career. Rose has battled back issues for years, but he's obviously amid a stretch of good health. We'll see how that goes with Euro events in Turkey, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates in the next three weeks (and, no, you're not crazy – none of those places is in Europe).

Brooks Koepka

When Johnson was faltering, it appeared if anyone would catch him it would be Koepka. But a double bogey on 16 killed his chances. Throw in a triple during the third round, and Koepka realizes he could've/should've won his first WGC tournament. Still, his co-runner-up moves him to a career-high No. 7 in the world. After Koepka won the U.S. Open over the summer, he was T6 at the Open Championship, T17 at the WGC-Bridgestone, T13 at the PGA Championship and T6 at the Tour Championship. Sunday's falter was merely a blip in Koepka's rise.

(If you're wondering who exited the top-10 as Rose and Koepka entered, get this: Jason Day has fallen to No. 11 – he began the year as No. 1. Sergio Garcia also fell from the top-10, but the bigger news is Rory McIlroy dropping to ninth. You'd have to go back to the 2011 Masters to find the last time the former No. 1 was that low.)

Henrik Stenson

Stenson also had a chance on the back nine on Sunday, but he played it in only even par. This wasn't the deepest of WGC fields, though it was good for Stenson fans to see another good tournament before the end of the year. We'll be watching him in the Euro playoffs, too. The Swede moved back up to No. 8 in the world.

Patrick Cantlay

Cantlay tied for 15th in the first WGC event of his career. That's not entirely surprising given his rise over the past year. Really, the most interesting thing about Cantlay is that he is flying from China to Las Vegas to play in this week's Shriners tournament. For someone who carefully navigated his schedule to avoid recurrence of chronic back problems, this is an interesting decision. Presumably, Cantlay feels in a good place with his back. Let's keep an eye on what happens in Vegas.

Thomas Pieters

On one hand, Pieters began the year at No. 47 in the world and now he's No. 35. On the other hand, he was No. 24 a few months ago. The Belgian had a number of good tournaments in the first half of the year, most notably the WGC-Mexico (T5) and the Masters (T4), but has done little since. That includes a T71 in the 78-man HSBC, which extends a run of tournaments without even a top-25 to seven, beginning with his missed cut at the PGA Championship. It's likely just a temporary blip, but for gamers playing Euro daily fantasy, it's a concern to be mindful of as Pieters heads to the playoffs.

Ryan Armour

In a place about as far from China as you can get – if not geographically than certainly culturally – there was a golfer who didn't blow a big 54-hole lead. Armour is a 41-year-old journeyman who was ranked outside the top-300 before winning his first career PGA tournament, the Sanderson Farms Championship in Jackson, Miss. The fact that the win came in only Armour's 105th PGA event tells you he hasn't spent a lot of time in the big leagues. It's a wonderful story, but it's hard to see Armour having much of an impact on the fantasy world.

Smylie Kaufman
Kaufman is closely linked with Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and Rickie Fowler. But only because they go on vacation together. Kaufman appeared ready to emerge – perhaps not on the level of his three bro-cation buddies – after winning the Shriners in 2015. Well, his T4 on Sunday at the Sanderson was his best finish since that maiden PGA Tour win two years ago. Kaufman didn't even make the top-125 after last season. It was inconceivable he was that bad. It doesn't appear that he is.

Hunter Mahan

Mahan's world-class fall over the past few years has been well chronicled here and just about everywhere else. He doesn't even have full playing privileges now – just past champion's status. It's just two baby steps, but Mahan added a T18 at the Sanderson to his T13 at the season-opening Safeway. A return to the top-10 seems implausible for the 35-year-old. But he might have already begun a return to respectability.

RotoWire Value Picks
Last week: Runner-up (Leishman), six top-25s, one WD
This week: Runners-up (Johnson, Stenson), three top-10s, four top-25s at the WGC-HSBC
Runner-up (Hadley), four top-10s, eight top-25s, four missed cuts at the Sanderson

With two tournaments last week, there were two sets of value picks.

We made 12 picks for the 78-man, no-cut WGC event. In Tier 1, Dustin Johnson blew a big lead and finished in a three-way tie for second. Jon Rahm (T36) and Hideki Matsuyama (T50) were far back. In Tier 2, Henrik Stenson was another runner-up, and Paul Casey tied for 11th, while Marc Leishman was T38. In Tier 3, Matt Kuchar was the best of the bunch at T31, while Adam Scott (T50) and Ross Fisher (T58) were woeful. Among the long shots, Brian Harman was a solid solo eighth, and Thorbjorn Olesen tied for 31st, but Hao-Tong Li tied for 50th.

At the Sanderson Farms, we made the traditional 16 selections in the 132-man field. In Tier 1, top-dollar Chesson Hadley was the runner-up, Jason Kokrak delivered with a T7, William McGirt was T25, and Chris Kirk disappointed with a T34. In Tier 2, Kevin Streelman tied for 10th, Brandon Hagy tied for 18th, and Austin Cook tied for 25th, but Ben Martin was T59. In Tier 3, it was bad. Three of our missed cuts were there – Davis Love, Richy Werenski and Denny McCarthy – while Corey Conners tied for 65th. Among the long shots, we scored with Ben Silverman's tie for seventh, and Talor Gooch tied for 30th. But Steve Wheatcroft tied for 74th, and Tom Hoge missed the cut.