Weekly Recap: Brooks Is Back

There he was, the former No. 1 player in the world who had been struggling for some time but now suddenly was back in contention. Golf fans -- on the course, watching on TV and posting on Twitter -- were going wild.

That was quite a scene. Or should we say, scenes. Because that very script played out not once but twice -- first on Saturday, and again on Sunday.

Fans were undoubtedly rooting for golf's golden boy, Jordan Spieth, to pick up the win. Instead, a pretty amazing alternate ending unfolded when one of the sport's villains, Brooks Koepka, was the last man standing after an absolutely riveting weekend of golf in Phoenix.

While Spieth and fellow 54-hole leader Xander Schauffele faltered, Koepka erased a five-shot deficit and claimed victory for the first time since July of 2019. The dagger was a nearly 100-foot chip-in for eagle on 17 that highlighted a 7-under round of 65. Of Koepka's winning 19-under total, 15 of those shots came on the final six holes at TPC Scottsdale.

While Spieth on Saturday and Koepka on Sunday had similar storylines, there were and are some cavernous differences: Koepka, as we said, hadn't won in nearly 19 months; Spieth is going on four years. Koepka had fallen to 13th in the world rankings; Spieth had plummeted to 91st. Koepka recorded three top-10s in the past six months, including at the Masters; Spieth hadn't had one in eight months.

And most importantly, Koepka's problems were largely physical, while Spieth's were and are mental, mechanical and who knows what else.

More on Spieth, and Schauffele, in a minute.

Throughout 2020, Koepka was far from the player who had won four majors in short order. He dealt with a knee injury that just wouldn't get better and also a hip problem. He was playing badly. But really, badly only for him, not the average Tour golfer. He had some good tournaments, some very good rounds. He appeared to be healthy some weeks, hampered by the injuries in others.  True, he (and we) didn't know when he would be better, but at least the problems had an easy fix. 

In August, he notched runner-up at the WGC-FedEx event, then in November, he finished fifth at the Houston Open and seventh at the Masters. He was, on occasion, still able to compete. It was tricky deciding when to include him in fantasy lineups because he wasn't consistent, mixing rare weeks of greatness with many subpar weeks. In fact, he had missed three cuts in a row for the first time leading up to last week's tournament.

"I loved the way I was playing even though I was missing cuts," he said on NBC right after winning.

Looking at Koepka's stats right now, including this past week, you'll see they aren't terrible; they were just terrible for him. He's top-50 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Approach and Around-the-Green, top-25 in SG: Putting and Tee-to-Green. They aren't elite. But a lot of guys would kill for those numbers. 

Not to take anything away from Koepka, but keep in mind that to come from five shots back you do need some help. Still, at TPC Scottsdale, he ranked 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee, second in Approach, first in greens in regulation and 18th in SG: Putting. That's particularly Koepka-like, and it came over a four-day span.

So what now? Koepka revealed that he didn't know whether he'd ever be healthy enough to regain his former form. He now believes he will be. Now it appears that he is, in fact, back.

The questions are, back enough to be No. 1 again, back enough to go on another run in the major tournaments?

As desperately as golf fans want that for Spieth, Koepka sure seems a whole lot closer.

Regardless, those questions will begin to be answered in two weeks at Rivieria. By then, we'll be only three weeks away from THE PLAYERS Championship and eight from the Masters.

MONDAY BACKSPIN

Jordan Spieth
Writing about Spieth the past few years has been hard, because his situation is so complicated. He finished two shots behind Koepka in a tie for fourth. So was he two shots from being back, instead of Koepka? No, he was not nearly as close as Koepka was. Koepka's numbers – stats, etc. – were bad for Koepka. Spieth's numbers were and still are bad -- period. Dismal, in fact, most notably outside the top-200 in driving accuracy and greens in regulation. He is 80th in SG: Putting, which is mediocre. At TPC Scottsdale, Spieth was 18th in greens in regulation, 13th in SG: Putting. Obviously, far better. But on Sunday, he was 61st in Putting, losing almost two strokes to the field. So in review, to think three-plus years of troubles would or could be solved in one week, when there were really no indications of improvement in recent weeks, was improbable. It had been quite some time since Spieth held at least a share of a 54-hole lead, as he did here. He is now 9-for-17 in such situations. He did move from outside the top-90 in the world rankings to 69th; he still has time to crack the top-50 to qualify for the WGC event later this month. He'll have a good opportunity starting this week at Pebble Beach, where he has won before and where the field will be historically weak. In some ways, this coming week will be more important for Spieth than last week was, even though last week was enormously important to his game, and his psyche.

Dustin Johnson
A quick note about Johnson before moving down the Phoenix Open leaderboard. Johnson won the Saudi International for the second time in a field almost as strong as in Phoenix. He increased his OWGR advantage over world No. 2 Jon Rahm. Johnson has now won four of his past eight starts with two runners-up. And now he heads to Pebble Beach, where he's won before. He will be among only five players ranked in the top-50 in the world in the field.

Xander Schauffele
Schauffele is ranked fourth in the world, which means there are only three guys in the world better than him (math!). So he's obviously doing a lot right. But he's now gone two-plus years without winning, which is as curious as it is concerning. His co-runner-up gave him a whopping 10 since 2017-18, the most in golf, three of them this season along. This was only the fourth time he has ever blown a 54-hole lead, so it's not as if he was blowing tournaments left and right. But he clearly also has trouble closing, and finding the water on 17 on Sunday was a monumental implosion. For the week, Schauffele ranked second in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee and fourth in Putting, and you figure you should win more times than not with such a combination. His irons clearly were the problem. Lastly, don't equate Schauffele's winless streak with Tony Finau's, as some on Twitter have done. Schauffele has won four times, three of them big events, while Finau has long been stuck on one win, and it came in an opposite-field event.
 
Kyoung-Hoon Lee
Lee shared runner-up honors, by far the best result of his three-year Tour career (he was fifth at the 2019 RSM Classic). After missing almost half of his career cuts in 70 starts, he has been playing better in 2021. He's made three of four cuts and was also top-20 at the Sony. He's now 29. Maybe he starting to turn a corner, but we'll need more tournaments to reach that determination.

Steve Stricker
Stricker, two weeks shy of turning 54, tied for fourth. Another shot or two and he could've locked up his card for next year, which would've been something. As it is, he's 103rd in the point standings and should get plenty of starts playing on his one-time exemption for being in the top-50 in career earnings. On short courses such as TPC Scottsdale, he definitely can have value. But he is skipping Pebble Beach this week.

Carlos Ortiz
Ortiz had played almost 120 Tour events before winning the Houston Open in November. Guys coming out of nowhere to win and then going back to nowhere happens often. But Ortiz certainly has not gone away. He tied for fourth in Phoenix, his second top-10 since Houston. He's made five straight cuts with two other top-30s. He just broke through the top-50 OWGR for the first time at No. 45. No, Ortiz is not going anywhere.

Matthew NeSmith
NeSmith tied for seventh, his second top-10 and fourth top-25 this season. It shouldn't be a big surprise because he's third on Tour in greens in regulation. His wedge/putter game is pretty poor, but he's still often a good play as a lower-priced guy, though he may not be lower-priced for much longer.

Scottie Scheffler
Playing in the final group, Scheffler faded to T7. But it was still by far his best showing in 10 starts this season. It was his first top-10. He statistically is one of the best drivers. The rest of his game hasn't been keeping pace. Perhaps Phoenix will be a springboard for him to avoid a sophomore slump.

James Hahn
Boy, Hahn was leading on the back-nine on Sunday and fell apart with four bogeys in his final eight holes. At the beginning of the week, Hahn and anyone who backed him would've been thrilled with a 10th-place result. Of course, not so much now. He's been decent for many years, with two career wins. There's very little weakness in his game, though nothing elite. With four top-10s already this season while missing only two cuts, he's been a great, cheap addition to lineups.

Rory McIlroy
A 64 on Sunday, equaling the best round of the day, moved him to T13. Not quite a backdoor top-10. Yes, it's another week without a win. But with the best players, their bad weeks are still very good.

Jon Rahm
Rahm was never in contention, but he tied for 13th. He's in the top-25 every week. He's always a $10,000-plus guy, so it's hard to pay off every week. He comes close.
 
Justin Thomas
Still dealing with the fallout of uttering a homophobic slur at Kapalua in early January, Thomas learned before playing Sunday that his grandfather had passed. So he's dealing with a lot. He shot 72. He tied for 13th. We should see him next at Riviera.

Will Zalatoris
He just keeps coming. It wasn't a top-10 at Phoenix, but it was another top-25, his sixth in eight PGA Tour starts this season. With his tie for 17th, Zalatoris is now inside the top-50 in the world rankings. The only downside is, his price is getting very high, $9,000 at Phoenix and sure to go higher, depending on the field. He won't be playing at Pebble Beach and it's unknown whether he will get a sponsor invite to Riviera.

Matthew Wolff
Since finishing with consecutive runners-up to start this season, Wolff has now gone: 73-T50-MC-T40-WD and now T36. Still hurt? Something else? Like Koepka, he'll come around. The problem is knowing when.

Doc Redman
It's been only five events since Redman tied for fourth in Bermuda in October, but with a missed cut at Phoenix he has three MCs, a tie for 61st and a solo 70th. His short game is spectacularly woeful and his strength, his iron play, has slipped a bit. It's a concern.

Joel Dahmen
He's missed all three cuts in 2021 and he hadn't missed that many in a row in almost two years. Dahmen ranked 44th in Strokes Gained: Approach at the end of last season; he's ranked 103rd so far this season.

Rickie Fowler
After opening 2021 impressively with a top-25 at the Amex, he's gone T53 and now a missed cut. Whether the swing change is still in progress, Fowler is far from his former self. He's playing this week in a very weak Pebble Beach field, so he has to play well, right?

John Augenstein
The 2019 U.S. Amateur runner-up tied for 55th at the Masters, then turned pro and has now missed the cut in both tournaments he's played. He'll continue to get some sponsor invites.

Kevin Stadler
After missing three full seasons while injured, Stadler has been playing on a major medical extension since 2019. He's made only one cut in 22 starts – it happened to be two weeks ago at the Amex (T77) – and it's clear he cannot keep up with PGA Tour players. But he has 13 more starts on the major medical, so we'll continue to see him. FWIW, he needs to win a little over $700,000 to fulfill his extension.