Weekly Preview: WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

TPC Southwind
Memphis, TN

In honor of the start -- and hopefully not the end -- of the baseball season, the PGA Tour this week sends split squads to California for the Barracuda Championship and to Tennessee for the first WGC event since late February. Due to the weaker field last week in Minnesota, wacky things were anticipated and wacky things occurred, including a guy winning after seven-year drought. Don't expect anything too crazy this week, though, as this event is littered with high-end golfers and has a history of big-name winners. Since 2011, every winner of this WGC tournament -- which was played elsewhere until last year -- with the exception of one also has a major on his resume, and the one guy who doesn't is Hideki Matsuyama. In other words, avoiding chalk last week was the way to go, but this week it's all about the chalk. There are still golfers to pinpoint within that group, though. There are a lot of golfers with solid track records in this event, which complicates matters a bit. However, the recent form of many of the top guys makes them easy to fade, which thins the crowd some. When making picks this week, it will be important to remember this event has been held at TPC Southwind for only one year. However, Southwind did host a different event before last year, so most golfers have at least some history in Tennessee. And although the WGC event was held elsewhere before 2019, there is still some tournament history to consider as well.

LAST YEAR

Brooks Koepka shot a final-round 65 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Webb Simpson.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (10-1)

That didn't take long. You win one event and suddenly you are the favorite against the best players in the world. Seriously, Rahm has produced at a staggering rate for someone his age, and yet it feels like he should be doing more. However you feel, he's the favorite and it's hard to argue against him, as last time he took the course he ran away from a strong field on a tough course at the Memorial. As for his track record, Rahm finished T7 last year at TPC Southwind.

Rory McIlroy (11-1)  

We've heard stories about golfers that benefitted from the time off, but McIlroy probably never wanted to take a break. Prior to the hiatus he was gobbling up top-5s like they were hand sanitizer bottles and now, well, he can't buy a top-10. He's not playing terribly, but he doesn't have that extra gear at the moment. He can turn it on at a moment's notice, but really can't justify second-favorite status this week.                      

Justin Thomas (11-1)

Thomas nearly won three weeks ago at the Workday Charity Open, but he failed to contend the following week on the same course. Thomas should easily shake off his performance at the Memorial considering his track record in this event is solid. Thomas won it in 2018 (on a different track) and finished T17 here last year. He stands out among the top options as a golfer that should be heavily considered this week.                       

THE NEXT TIER

Patrick Cantlay (20-1)

Before we go further, I should mention the absence of Bryson DeChambeau on this list. It's simple a matter of the odds. He's 12-1 and doesn't fit into this category, and he's not among the top three favorites, which I always list above, but he's still a good option. As for Cantlay, he has played well out of the break, but he hasn't shown his best form yet. That could change this week, as he played well on this course last year and posted a T12.                          

Webb Simpson (22-1)

Three weeks ago Simpson was among the hottest golfers on Tour, but a missed cut at the Memorial has him back in the middle of the pack. Conditions at the Memorial were so tough that it's reasonable to just throw out his results, though. Simpson finished runner-up here last year, which bolsters his case at Southwind.                        

Daniel Berger (28-1)

Just like Simpson, Berger was on fire heading into the Memorial, and just like Simpson, Berger struggled. For Berger however, that start came after nearly a month off, so rust was part of the equation. There shouldn't be any rust this time out as he played just two weeks ago, but the question now is, does he still have the form that led to a win and a T3 in consecutive starts? I think we'll see him compete this week.                          

LONG SHOTS

Jason Day (40-1)  

In case you haven't been paying attention, Day is starting to look like his old self. No, he hasn't won recently, but he's starting to inch closer. He posted a T7 two starts ago and finished T4 in his most recent start. His track record here is a bit shaky, as he posted a T40 last year, but his game as a whole was in much worse shape in 2019.                

Billy Horschel (40-1)  

With a stacked field, Horschel isn't the kind of guy you would expect to win, but he's been playing some solid golf lately and played well here last year. Horschel finished T13 and T7 in his two most recent starts and posted a T10 here last year.                        

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Justin Thomas - It's tough to say who will be the most popular among the OAD players, but I think Thomas and Rahm will be 1 and 1A. I give a slight edge to Thomas because of his track record, and although he let us down at the Memorial he still managed a top-20.

Moderately-owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - Cantlay appeared to be a good option two weeks in a row at Muirfield, but for anyone that didn't use him in those spots, he will be among the top options this week. Cantlay hasn't been at his best since play resumed, but he has played well enough to make me think he's got enough to contend this week.                    

Lightly-owned Pick: Billy Horschel - With so many big names to choose from and so few events remaining, it's hard to pull the trigger on Horschel, but it's getting pretty late in the season and if you need to make up ground, I can't imagine there will be many on him this week.

Buyer Beware: Brooks Koepka - His odds are in the tank after yet another poor showing, but with the PGA Championship on the horizon and a stellar track record in this event, some OAD players might think it's the proper time to deploy Koepka. I though about it for a minute as well, but he's so far off his game I just couldn't justify the pick. At this point, he's merely a contrarian play.

Last Week: Doc Redman (MC) $0 Season - $3,350,071  

This Week: Justin Thomas - I was in good position in both of my OAD leagues heading into the break, but since the restart I haven't had any luck. Perhaps I have waited on my big guns too long, but that ends this week. It would be nice to have Thomas for one of the majors, but his prospects look as good this week as they will at any of the remaining majors.             

FANDUEL PICKS  

Upper Range: Justin Thomas ($11,700)
Middle Range: Jason Day ($9,800)
Lower Range: Ian Poulter ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Lucas Glover (MC) - Streak - 0

This Week: Jon Rahm - Rahm is on a roll right now, and his track record here is pretty solid. I still don't quite trust him in majors, which is perhaps the biggest key in my decision to use him here. The only thing working against Rahm is the week off -- and perhaps the hangover from the win -- but he's been here before and I can't imagine he won't be able to handle his recent success.