Weekly Preview: Waste Management Phoenix Open

Waste Management Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale
Scottsdale, AZ

The PGA Tour heads to Arizona this week for the tournament that usually features an annual par-3 party on the famed 16th hole. Unfortunately, that won't be the case this year, as the crowd will be limited to just 5,000 per day. It's still the Waste Management Open, though, so it should be fun. 

Adding to the festivities is the strength of the field. While this event generally has a couple big names, this year it's loaded with elite players, from Jon Rahm to Rory McIlroy to Justin Thomas. Rahm and Thomas have actually played this event several times each, but McIlroy will be making his first start here. Returning to defend his title is Webb Simpson, who has a mighty fine track record here, just like almost all the other big names in the field.

It should be a fun week, as we have a lot of top-tier talent that has played well here before. In other words, don't expect an "out of nowhere" golfer to win. This is a week for the chalk to rise to the top. TPC Scottsdale is once again the track in play, which means course history aplenty.

LAST YEAR

Webb Simpson shot a final-round 69 on his way to a playoff victory over Tony Finau.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (7-1)

Rahm enters this week as the favorite once again, but the strange thing is, his price is the same as last week. I say strange because the field is stronger at the top, and while Rahm had little value last week, he has even less this time around. That's not a knock on Rahm -- his track record here is pretty good -- but he will have to beat out several more elite players this week that also have good track records here and that wasn't the case last week. Another issue for Rahm is that his best finish here was a T5 in 2015. Sure, he's never fared worse than T16, but his upside at this price could be limited.

Justin Thomas (9-1)

We haven't seen Thomas since the incident at the Tournament of Champions, and while it's reasonable to think that the attention garnered from that might affect his play, we have a couple recent examples that might make you think otherwise. The first is his play immediately after all the attention, when he shot a 66. The second is from this past weekend where Patrick Reed didn't let any of the negative attention affect his play at all. Thomas is not Reed, who has likely hardened himself over the years because he often garners negative attention, but it appears as though Thomas should be able to weather this storm. As for his play here, he's got a solid track record with top-3s in his two most recent starts at this event.

Xander Schauffele (10-1)

As we round out the top three, the most notable player is the one missing -- Rory McIlroy. I can't remember the last time Rory was not one of the top three on the board, but while that's very interesting, this is about Schauffele, who once again made a charge this past week, but failed to win. Schauffele looks the part more often than not, but he doesn't have the results of an elite golfer...yet. Is a win in the cards this week? His track record here is good, but not great, with three top-20s in three starts at this event. There isn't quite enough value at 10-1 to make a play on Schauffele to win.                                        

THE NEXT TIER

Webb Simpson (14-1)

I get that Simpson's name doesn't carry as much weight as some others, but I still don't understand how his odds are twice that of Rahm. Simpson has a win here as well as a runner-up (2017) and his form is just fine as he's coming in off a T4 at the Sony Open. Simpson has never been flashy or all that exciting to be honest and maybe that's why the public isn't all over him, but he should be among the favorites this week, so the fact that he's getting 14-1 is a gift.

Hideki Matsuyama (20-1)

As recently as three years ago, Matsuyama was a no-brainer pick here, as his track record entering the 2018 Waste Management Open was ridiculous. Entering that event, Matsuyama had posted a T4, a runner-up and two wins in his four previous starts. That year however was a disaster, as he was forced to withdraw after one round. Since then his play has been decent, but nowhere near his previous level. His slide down the rankings has resulted in the emergence of some value though, as now he's 20-1. His recent play hasn't been great, but he's returning to a place where he's had a lot of success, and that might be all he needs to get back on top.

Bubba Watson (40-1)

It's "broken record" time, but it has to be mentioned. There are some places where Watson excels and others he doesn't, just like any golfer. Well, it's a little different with Watson, as it almost seems like he throws in the towel on tracks he doesn't like. That's of no concern this week, as this is a "Bubba" track. Watson has never won this event, but he does have two runner-ups and two other top-5s in his past seven starts here. He did miss the cut this past week, but perhaps we can blame rust, as he hadn't played an official event since The Masters.

LONG SHOTS

Brendan Steele (80-1)

Steele had a realistic chance to win just two starts ago at the Sony Open, and he posted a T21 the following week at The American Express, so his form is definitely good enough to contend. His track record here is sketchy, as he did not play the weekend in his last two appearances but recorded four top-6 finishes before that. It's hard to explain the two consecutive missed cuts, as he had made the cut in his first eight tries here. Perhaps it was just a couple bad weeks.

Sam Burns (80-1)  

Not all long shots are built the same. While Steele is a guy I expect to fare well, Burns is more of a "shot in the dark" kind of guy who needs to catch lightning in a bottle. He has caught that at times this season, but he's been unable to sustain his momentum. That's not uncommon for a younger golfer on Tour, but Burns looks like he's getting closer. He posted a T7 three starts back and he started very well this past week, only to settle for a top-20. He'll put it all together at some point, but for now, he's a "oh, why not?" kind of wager at 80-1.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jon Rahm - He hasn't won here and there will be plenty of spots to use him down the road, but Rahm should again he a very popular selection. If not for a good showing this past week he'd be easier to pass on, but he looks to be rounding into form and he might just post that high-end result we've all been waiting for.

Moderately-owned Pick: Webb Simpson - Before I saw the odds chart, I assumed that Simpson would be the most popular pick this week, but now I'm wondering if there is something I'm missing. Maybe his odds are lower because he's the defending champ? I honestly can't figure out why they aren't better. Whatever the case, this is one of a few spots each season where Simpson is a great play.

Lightly-owned Pick: Will Zalatoris - With so many good players in the field with solid track records here, a guy like Zalatoris, who has played very well this season, will likely slip under the radar. This will be hi first start here, which will contribute to his lack of buzz this week, but if he plays like he's been playing, you can expect another strong finish.

Buyer Beware: Rory McIlroy - There's a reason McIlroy is not among the favorites this week. Well, actually there are two reasons. He's a first-timer, and considering that many in the field have a long history here, he's immediately at a disadvantage. Second, while his play has been good lately, it hasn't been great and he hasn't won on the PGA Tour since 2019. This isn't to say that I expect him to miss the cut, but his odds of recording a top-5 this week aren't that great.

Last week: Marc Leishman - T18 - $80,761

Season Total: $1,468,739

This Week: Hideki Matsuyama - Some weeks the picks come easy because there aren't many good options, and some weeks it's nearly impossible to eliminate golfers because they all look so good. This is one of those weeks where several options look like the "right" one. I considered all the favorites, along with Simpson, Watson, and others, but in the end, I decided to go back to Matsuyama, who once owned this event. I'm not a fan of his current form, but even when he's been off, he's managed to play well here. I'm hoping that this week he can find the magic that helped him win this event twice.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Webb Simpson ($11,300)
Middle Range: Bubba Watson ($10,400)
Lower Range: Henrik Norlander ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Marc Leishman - T18

Streak: 4

This Week: Hideki Matsuyama - While Matsuyama would feel a little risky in this format under normal circumstances, there's something about this place that brings out the best in him, so I'm not really concerned. The only time he failed to make the weekend here was due to injury, and every other start not only resulted in a made cut, but a top-20 or better. He should have enough game to again finish top-5, but even if not, we can count on him making it to the weekend.