Weekly Preview: Valero Texas Open

Valero Texas Open

TPC San Antonio
San Antonio, TX

The PGA Tour heads to San Antonio for the final tune-up before the Masters.

I want to talk about this past week, but I first have to mention what a bad draw this is for the Texas Open. Not only are we coming off a week in which everyone played at least three rounds and many played more than that, but just on the horizon is the Masters. I know there are some tough spots on the schedule, but I can't imagine one worse than this.

Now, for the Match Play event. What a way to go out, right? For years, that tournament struggled to get the right mix of players on the weekend, and in its final iteration we got two of the best three in the world -- as well as two of the top young players on the PGA Tour -- going head-to-head for nearly 36 holes Sunday. Sure, it would have been better had Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy battled for the title instead of third, but we still got to see them face each other, which is what most wanted. As for the winner, Sam Burns, it goes without saying that this win was not something many saw coming. Burns struggled out of the gate in 2023, but we saw some signs of life leading up to the Match Play. A win was a surprise, but it should serve as a building block for Burns, who has a very bright future. 

Speaking of promising prospects, this week is the Valero...okay, I can't do it. Let's be real here, this is one of those tournaments that doesn't look good on paper. Still, as we've seen already this year, sometimes we can be pleasantly surprised during these "off" weeks. Let's hope that's the case again.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 9:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

J.J. Spaun shot a final-round 69 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Matt Kuchar and Matt Jones.

FAVORITES

Tyrrell Hatton (13-1)

Hatton bowed out early at the Match Play, and he's in the field for the Masters, so he might as well play some golf while he's in the states, right? Hatton's participation is certainly a surprise, as you wouldn't think he'd need a tune-up, but maybe after going winless in Austin he has some things to work on. Whatever the case, he's a first-timer here, and he's not exactly on top of his game right now, so the value is simply not there.

Rickie Fowler (16-1)

It's good to see Fowler back up near the top of the odds chart. Granted, it's a light field, but 12 months ago he wouldn't have been anywhere near the top three. Fowler has really picked up his game over the past 12 months, but he's lacking that final kick, to use a horse racing term. He's close, but he needs to maintain a high level for four rounds. He's played well here before, with two top-20s in three starts, and the conditions are right for another strong finish. There isn't a ton of value at this price, but there's enough to consider a play, which is why he's dropped from 20-1.

Corey Conners (24-1)

Conners started slowly this season, but he's played some good golf lately and could be ready to jump into the winner's circle. If Conners hadn't had the misfortune of being in Cameron Young's group this past week, he might have been able to make some hay. Conners has decent form entering this week and he's got a pretty good track record here as well, with a win in 2019 and nothing worse than T35 in four starts here.

THE NEXT TIER

Taylor Montgomery (27-1)

Outside of completely crumbling down the stretch THE PLAYERS Championship, it's been a very impressive start to Montgomery's PGA Tour career. He's had plenty of strong finishes already, but he has not won, which is something he has a decent chance to do this week. He is a first-timer in San Antonio, but that has been the case at almost every stop he has made and it hasn't mattered much.

Matt Kuchar (31-1)

There are a few things in play this week for Kuchar. The first -- which I don't like -- is that he got some attention this past week for tying Tiger's Match Play win record. It's not that I didn't like Kuchar getting credit, it's that it likely drove his price down for this week. Now, was last week a result of Kuchar's match play prowess or is his game in good shape? Considering his track record here -- four top-15s in his past seven starts -- I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

J.J. Spaun (32-1)

I'm not a huge fan of taking the defending champion unless it's an elite player, and while Spaun has vastly improved, he's obviously not elite. With that said, he played pretty well in the Match Play, and he obviously knows how to get around this track, so this price seems a bit high. I'd certainly consider Spaun when making win bets this week.

LONG SHOTS

Ben Griffin (40-1)

Griffin has caught plenty of attention this season, but he's struggling to finish the job. It's nothing new to young players. They often have a tough time closing early in their careers, but one week it just clicks and the rest is history. Griffin appears to have the talent to win out here, and that first victory will likely happen in an event like this.

Cam Davis (44-1)

Davis hit a rough patch earlier this year, but he seems to have found his way out. He's had some issues here, with only a T69 to show for two starts, but his most recent appearance was in 2021 and he's come a long way since. Davis is trending the right way and a win is a lot to ask, but that's why he has these odds.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Corey Conners - Ownership should be all over the place, as there are a lot of good picks but no standout. Conners is the closest to doing so because his form is strong and he's among the favorites. As for Hatton, a lot of people used him this past week and those that didn't might be scared off by the winless showing.

Moderately-owned Pick: Matt Kuchar - As mentioned, he grabbed a lot of attention this past week by advancing out of the group stage, and when people get a look at his track record here, they're going to get excited. It's hard to trust Kuchar at this point in his career, but if you are going to take a chance on him, this looks like the week to do it.

Lightly-owned Pick: Ben Griffin - It's a strange setup this week because we have a large group of players that look like good picks, then nothing. There isn't much to separate the players within the upper tier, and its size leaves little to choose from outside that group. I prefer betting on Griffin to win rather than using him as an OAD pick, but he does have upside, so he could pay off in this format as well.

Buyer Beware: Hideki Matsuyama - There aren't any elite players in the field and only three players below 20-1, so it's hard to find a high-profile golfer to fade. Still, when you have a golfer who withdrew from the previous event, you've got someone to avoid. Add to that Matsuyama's limited track record here, and you have all the makings for another early exit.

This Week: Matt Kuchar - With the above-mentioned cluster, I thought this pick would be difficult, but it was made a lot easier due to my previous picks. I've used Montgomery, Conners, Hatton, and Fowler already this season, so that didn't leave much to choose from. It came down to Kuchar and Spaun and the defending champion fade was the difference. I thought my days of using Kuchar in the OAD were over, but here we are.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Corey Conners ($11,900)
Middle Range: Matt Kuchar ($10,600)
Lower Range: Akshay Bhatia ($8,200)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Matt Kuchar - Unless he's gassed from this past week, there's no reason to think that Kuchar will miss the weekend. Kuchar has played this event on its current course 10 times and has never missed a cut. His form is solid, so there's nothing to dislike about him in this spot.

Previous Results