Weekly Preview: THE PLAYERS Championship

THE PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass
Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

The PGA Tour heads up the coast of Florida as the first major of the...okay, we know this isn't technically the fifth major, but people sure do get excited about it. Not as excited as they do for a bona fide major championship, but certainly more than any other standard event on the schedule. Maybe it's the loaded field or maybe it's the course, specifically the "Island Green" on No. 17. Whatever the reason, there is an excitement in the air whenever this event pops up on the schedule. 

Perhaps that's why it was such a bummer last year when this event was cancelled after the first round. Little did we know at the time that that we would miss out on months of golf, and that we would still be in the throes of the pandemic a year later. Needless to say, no one wants to go back to that time, and perhaps getting in a full four rounds this year will provide more reason for optimism.

As always, the field is loaded, and we have a lot of high-end golfers who appear to be in good form. I don't expect another Si Woo Kim surprise this year. Whoever wins won't come as a huge shock to most.

LAST YEAR

The event was cut short after one round as sports began to shut down due to the pandemic.

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (12-1)

DJ is back in a familiar spot as the favorite, but this time he has more reasonable odds. That's not the same as 'favorable' though, as 12-1 is a little steep for what DJ is facing this week. He is the best golfer in the world right now and should be the favorite, but his track record here leaves a lot to be desired, as he has just one top-10 in 11 starts. On the bright side, that top-10 came in his most recent appearance, and it was actually a top-5.

Bryson DeChambeau (15-1)

DeChambeau also lacks a solid track record at this event, but what you are going to find is there aren't many players in the field that can claim one, so a lack of success isn't necessarily a reason to fade someone this week. DeChambeau made the cut in both his starts here, and while he hasn't done much on the weekend, he has only played this course as Bruce Banner and never as "The Hulk." If he plays like he did this past week, he will be just fine. DeChambeau was very streaky this past season, and he's hot right now, so this number looks pretty good.

Rory McIlroy (16-1)

McIlroy had everything going for him this past week. He even got off to a great start, and what did that get him? Nothing more than another top-10. I've written for months about Rory's inability to close, but I thought something was different last week. I'll admit, I fell for it. He's about as consistent as they come on the PGA Tour, and if I'm looking for someone to fill a top-10 wager, he might be at the top of the list. But his odds to win should not be less than 20-1 right now. His track record here is very good, but not as good as it was at Bay Hill. There's just not enough value to bet on Rory to win.

THE NEXT TIER

Collin Morikawa (22-1)

I'm generally not a fan of taking guys in their first appearance at a course, but most of what Morikawa accomplished over the past two years came at tracks where he was making his debut. Not only does he already have a major under his belt, but a WGC title as well. The only thing that is missing is a PLAYERS title -- well that, and three other majors, but you get the point. Morikawa is already extremely accomplished and no stage is too big for him.  

Webb Simpson (22-1)

Outside of his win here in 2018, Simpson's track record is not that great, but he does enter this week on a string of three consecutive top-20s. Simpson is another player that you don't have to worry about withering under pressure. He's won a major, he's won plenty of times on the PGA Tour, and if he's in the lead, he can close it out. We haven't seen his best form yet this year, but he will be a threat to win if he gets off to a good start.

Viktor Hovland (28-1)

I actually shied away from Hovland this past week because his hot play had to come to an end at some point. Lo and behold, that proved to be the case. Now that he's got that out of the way, he enters this week unencumbered by expectations. Hovland will be making his first start at Sawgrass, but like Morikawa, being a first-timer hasn't slowed Hovland down much over the past 18 months. Look for Hovland to come back refreshed after a tough outing at Arnie's Place.

LONG SHOTS

Tommy Fleetwood (45-1)

Fleetwood played well enough this past weekend to get plenty of airtime on Sunday afternoon...until his game left him. He still played well for most of the week and he's returning to a place where he's had some success. I liked him here last year, and that will not change in 2021. Fleetwood has teed it up here three times, and he made the cut in all three starts. He's turned two of those made cuts into top-10s, including a top-5 in his most recent start. Fleetwood might have trouble closing as he's never won a PGA Tour event, but he should find himself in contention come Sunday.

Jason Day (50-1)

I'm not sure Day has enough in the tank right now to pull off a win, but if he does, this is one of the spots where it could happen. Day is not on the precipice of joining the Champions Tour or anything like that, but he has dealt with a lot of medical issues in his career, and at time it looks like he just runs out of steam. With that said, he knows how to get around this course If he finds the magic early, he could make a charge. Day has four top-10s here in nine starts, including a win in 2016.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Bryson DeChambeau - DeChambeau was listed as my "lightly-owned" selection this past week because he hadn't shown his best form yet, but you see how quickly that can change. I saw something in his game two weeks ago and figured this was coming, but now that he's back in form, your chances of sneaking him in are gone. He'll be a popular play this week, but thanks to the loaded field, you could still gain some ground, as the picks will be more distributed than usual.

Moderately-owned Pick: Webb Simpson - Simpson hasn't been able to close yet this season, but he has notched a T4 and a T6 since the calendar flipped to 2021, and that's in just in four starts. The nice thing about using Simpson is that many already used him in Phoenix and others will be saving him for the Wyndham Championship, so there's an opportunity to pick up ground here.

Lightly-owned Pick: Jason Day - Day's track record here is bound to draw some attention, but this week's purse is just too big to mess around, and most OAD players will stick to top-10 players. That's where the opportunity comes in, as even though Day's odds to win are long, his odds of playing well and cashing a decent-sized check are pretty good. He's got this course figured out.

Buyer Beware: Tony Finau - There's been a lot of steam on Finau since his near-win a few weeks ago, and although I do think he will win at some point, I doubt it will be this week. For starters, this field is ridiculous, and I don't envision Finau breaking the drought by topping all the elite players in the field. Then there's the issue of his track record, which is certainly lacking. He posted a T22 in 2019, which was his best showing to date. Prior to that he had a pair of missed cuts and a T57.

Last Week: Rory McIlroy - T10 - $195,300

Season Total: $2,305,892  

This Week: Tommy Fleetwood - This was one of the most difficult selections I've had to make this season, but I landed on Fleetwood for a couple reasons. The first is that I'm already well behind the leaders in my OAD leagues and I need to start making up ground. There are several bigger names that are  appealing for different reasons, but I don't think this is the right spot for them. Second, Fleetwood is legitimately a good pick this week. He might not win, but I have no doubt he'll be on or near the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Bryson DeChambeau ($12,000)
Middle Range: Tommy Fleetwood ($10,200)
Lower Range: Chris Kirk ($8,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Viktor Hovland - T49

Streak: 2

This Week: Jason Day - Day has missed the cut here in three of nine starts, but one of those came in his first appearance in 2010 and he didn't miss the cut in his past four tries. His form is also pretty strong, as he had a rough go of it in just one his past 12 PGA Tour rounds.