Weekly Preview: The Open Championship

Open Championship

Royal St. George's
Sandwich, Kent, England

The PGA Tour heads across the pond for the final major of 2021.

 Of all four majors, it seems like the opinions on the Open Championship vary the most, at least on this side of the pond. I understand both viewpoints, those who think the Open Championship is too quirky to deliver a true champion, and those that love seeing a major on a links-style course once a year. Most often I fall into the latter category as I just like seeing something different from time to time. I like seeing guys putt from the fairway or hit irons off the tee on par-4s when appropriate. I don't like ridiculous bounces on good shots however and that's what we might be in for this week. Royal St. George has produced some surprise winners recently, but for those that want the cream to rise to the top this week, look no further than 2011. Yes, Darren Clarke was a surprise winner, but Dustin Johnson and a near-prime Phil Mickelson were close behind. This course can be maddening at times, but if the best players in the world can keep it together, there should be plenty of fire power on the leader board come Sunday afternoon, uh, morning. Another thing to like about the Open Championship, you still have the entire day to do whatever you want after the final round!

LAST YEAR

This tournament was not held last year, but in 2019 Shane Lowry shot a final-round 72 on his way to a six-stroke victory over Tommy Fleetwood.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (9-1)

Heading into the U.S. Open, Rahm seemed like the easy play, but although he's the favorite again this week, it's not as clear-cut in my mind. I felt as good as I could feel about a pick with Rahm at the U.S. Open, but I'm just not feeling it this week. The Open Championship is so unpredictable, and this course is as quirky as they come. I have a hard time believing the favorite will win on this course.

Rory McIlroy (16-1)

Another major and another top spot on the odds chart for McIlroy. It's not that big of a surprise though, after all, it's not like any of the elite golfers outside of Rahm are at the top of their game right now, so why not go back to the old standard? The problem is McIlroy hasn't won a major in almost seven years. On the bright side, he does have the right temperament to handle the bad bounces he and everyone else are likely to get this week.

Brooks Koepka (16-1)

Speaking of the right temperament, Koepka is certainly one that can handle some bad breaks and press on as if the golf gods weren't out to get him. The question is, can he thrive on an Open Championship layout? Though he's yet to win an Open Championship, he has had some success, including a T4 in 2019 and a T6 in 2017. Koepka has all the tools to win this week, it's just a matter of his body cooperating.

THE NEXT TIER

Jordan Spieth (20-1)

Spieth started out higher than his current odds, but he was quickly bet down to 20-1. Why is the public backing Spieth? For one, distance isn't a factor this week. Most links-style courses are immune to the bombers and this course is no exception. Second, this week is going to be as much a mental challenge as a physical challenge and Spieth has always been thought of as a golfer that can manage that part of the game well.

Louis Oosthuizen (30-1)

Oosthuizen is actually my pick to win this week because he has the mental game, the major game, the temperament, and the form to win this week. Not many players in the field have all those facets working in their favor this week. The only thing I don't like is his close call at the previous major. It feels like making a run at two consecutive majors is just too difficult, but if anyone can make a run it's Oosthuizen who has come oh so close to that second major on several occasions.

Tony Finau (50-1)

Stupid, right? He can't win a regular PGA Tour event and he's suddenly going to pull a major out of his behind? Crazier things have happened...on this golf course...multiple times. Finau has a huge mental hurdle to get over in order to win again at the highest level, but the mental challenge this week isn't about overcoming past failures, it's about handling bad breaks and I think Finau is capable of that. Now, if he's near the lead on Sunday, he'll have to find something he hasn't had in years, but who knows, maybe he can put it all together on the biggest stage.

LONG SHOTS

Lee Westwood (60-1)

It wasn't that long ago that Westwood was a sneaky sleeper at the Masters after solid showings at the Palmer and THE PLAYERS, but three months later he's almost an afterthought heading into what should be his best chance to win a major. His form wasn't what it was a few months ago, but he still had enough game to get around this course and contend at yet another major.

Webb Simpson (80-1)

He's not the first guy that comes to mind when talking about the Open Championship and he's most often associated with the U.S. Open, but Simpson has done pretty well at the Open Championship over the years. Well, he hasn't had a lot of great finishes, but he's a cut-making-fool, with 7/8 cuts made at this major. He hasn't played his best this year, but again, this course is going to do some strange things to these guys this week and I can see a solid outing from Simpson this week.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Brooks Koepka - Rahm will likely be the most popular play this week, but Koepka should be close behind, especially since any OAD players that have him left will feel like they need to deploy him at a major. Koepka has been dealing with a bad knee for a couple months, but he's been off since the end of June and should be in the best shape that we've seen him in in a while.

Moderately-owned Pick: Louis Oosthuizen - Oosthuizen has been a sneaky-good play at the majors for the past decade, but he's not sneaking past anyone this week. Any chance he had of sneaking under the radar left when he almost won the U.S. Open this past month. Oosthuizen is as solid as they come and he's generally reliable when in decent to good form, which he is currently. He's not the type of golfer that needs a good start either, so unless he misses the cut, he'll have a chance to be in the mix on Sunday.

Lightly-owned Pick: Lee Westwood - It's the Open Championship, so you'd think Westwood would be a popular play, but his odds are still sitting in "long shot" territory, which leads me to believe that the public isn't buying into him this week. That could be a mistake as this course is one that anyone can get, if they can stay patient and survive the ups and downs of a potentially maddening course.

Buyer Beware: Bryson DeChambeau - From all accounts, it appears as though DeChambeau will not be able to overpower this course and although he's more than just a bomber, his game as a whole hasn't been there recently. If DeChambeau's distance is negated, I don't think he'll have enough elsewhere to make up for that.

Last Week: Daniel Berger - T34 - $30,956

Season Total: $6,597,112

This Week: Brooks Koepka - I was all set to use Oosthuizen in this spot, but apparently I used him at the Valspar already. With that in mind, I'll have to go to my "default" pick of the best major championship golfer of the post-Tiger era. I'd have preferred to use Koepka at a major on U.S. soil, but the timing never seemed right, and although the timing here might not be perfect, he does seem like the best play available.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Brooks Koepka ($11,800)
Middle Range: Tony Finau ($10,200
Lower Range: Branden Grace ($8,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Steve Stricker - T41

Streak: 1

This Week: Louis Oosthuizen - I can't use him for the OAD format, but I can use him here. There are actually a lot of decent options for this format this week, but as I've said several times, you want someone who can handle the mental side of the game this week and that's Oosthuizen. His track record at the Open Championship is a bit scattered, but his form is solid so he should be fine.