Weekly Preview: The Memorial Tournament

The Memorial Tournament

Muirfield Village GC
Dublin, OH

The PGA Tour heads to The Buckeye State for another edition of The Memorial Tournament.

As we near the midpoint of the season, perhaps it's time to assess where things stand in professional golf. A couple big storylines have emerged, the first being Rory McIlroy dropping out of the PGA Tour's "Big 3." McIlroy has time to get back into the mix, but he's not there right now. As for the "Top Two", even though they are notably ahead of everyone else, they've gone about it in different ways. Jon Rahm has become the hit-or-miss guy, while Scottie Scheffler competes seemingly every week. They're both incredibly successful, but their paths have differed somewhat.

Story number two has been the reemergence of Brooks Koepka. Actually, maybe we should lump the Koepka storyline in with LIV Golf in general. The LIV guys have played well at the first two majors -- Cameron Smith notwithstanding -- but nothing has changed on the homefront. LIV is still struggling and I'm not sure there is a way out, but I digress, as the story we care about is Koepka. 

He and the "Top Two" on the PGA Tour will compete for more glory at the next two majors -- and now that we have a feel for where everyone stands, that could be epic.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Billy Horschel shot a final-round 72 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Aaron Wise.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (6-1)

The usual suspects are atop the betting board, with one exception that we'll get to in a bit. Scheffler is again the favorite, and that's because he's just a ball striking-machine. If he had gotten some cooperation from his putter, Scheffler could easily have a couple more wins this season, but for whatever reason he's struggling more than usual on the greens. With that in mind, these odds are a little light. He'll be in the mix, but without the flat stick he's not beating this field.

Jon Rahm (7-1)

I'm a little surprised to see Scheffler ahead of Rahm, but recency bias is likely playing a big role. Rahm did not play well at the PGA Championship, while Scheffler was right there for most of the tournament. Rahm, however, has a deceptively strong track record in this event. I say that because he officially has one win in four starts, but he was forced to withdraw in 2021 because of COVID-19, and at the time he was leading after 54 holes. Whatever was wrong with his game at Oak Hill should be remedied by a trip back to Muirfield Village. Rahm is the better value among the "Top Two" here.

Patrick Cantlay (10-1)

Is Rory skipping another elevated event? Nope, he's just not among the top three this week. This is certainly a departure from every big event over the past 12 months, as McIlroy has generally been among the top three options on the odds chart. However, this week that privilege is bestowed upon Cantlay -- and for good reason. Cantlay's track record here is outstanding, with four top-5s --including two wins -- over six starts. He's playing pretty well, so I'd be surprised if he didn't contend. With that said, the price isn't right for me in this field.

THE NEXT TIER

Viktor Hovland (20-1)

Hovland is getting close to breaking through in a big way, but he's just a fraction off. He's this year's version of Will Zalatoris at the majors, but unlike his counterpart, maybe Hovland can figure it all out before the end of the year. Hovland's history here is a little worrisome, but his short game has improved, and perhaps that caused some issues for him at this course over the years. Whatever the case, he enters this year's Memorial with enough game to win.

Jason Day (28-1)

Day's performance at the PGA Championship was certainly a letdown, but let's not forget he was coming off a huge win and didn't even get in a practice round. With more time having elapsed, I'm expecting Day to be back on top of his game. Day's track record here is a bit scattered, but he usually makes the cut, and he did post a T4 just two starts back.

Cameron Young (35-1)

I used to go with my gut all the time, and I feel like it worked more often than not, but for some reason I went away from that a while back. Well, I'm getting back into the "gut" business with Young. I can't quite explain it, as the numbers don't really line up, but I just have a feeling he's ready to pop again. It's okay to trust your instincts sometimes when you're wagering on guys in this range.

LONG SHOTS

Corey Conners (50-1)

Conners isn't exactly a deep sleeper at this price, but I had to find a place for him, and that is here. Conners might be lamenting his missed opportunity at the PGA Championship, but honestly, his chances faded so fast Sunday that I doubt he's got anywhere near the anguish of, say, Viktor Hovland, who was in it until the end. While we can't know his state of mind, what we do know is that his game is in good form, so at these odds I'll give him a shot.

Denny McCarthy (150-1)

Is this a double-gut week? Perhaps, as there isn't a lot to go on with McCarthy, but his T5 in this event last year is reason enough to make a play. McCarthy seems like too good a player to be getting odds this high, but when you haven't won on the PGA Tour, that's what you get. He's coming off a poor performance at the Charles Schwab Challenge, but I think that helps him refocus a bit.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-chosen Pick: Patrick Cantlay - There were plenty of places to use Cantlay earlier in the season, but for those that held onto him, it's time to check him off the list. Rahm and Scheffler are in play because it's an elevated event, but I can't imagine there are a lot of OAD players that have those two at their disposal any longer.

Moderately-chosen Pick: Jason Day - Elevated events fit Day nicely in this format, as he has the game to win but is not someone you're worried about saving for a major. As mentioned above, he should be done celebrating his win by the time he tees it up, which means he will be a factor.

Lightly-chosen Pick: Cameron Young - The things that make him bit of a dart throw are the same ones that will push selectors away in this format. I still like the pick, though. I read once that even when you make a pick with your gut, there's solid reasoning behind it -- you just can't quite figure it out. I'm hoping that's true because I'm going out on a limb recommending him in two formats.

Buyer Beware: Emiliano Grillo - It was a huge win for Grillo this past week, and that's exactly why we're avoiding him here. That high is not easy to shake off -- especially when it's your first victory in eight years. See Day's results at the PGA Championship. There are too many hurdles to get over this week for Grillo, so he will likely be makin only a short appearance.

This Week: Collin Morikawa - I did an entire write-up on Sahith Theegala being my sixth option but having to go with him because of the limited options at this time of the year, but then I realized I used Theegala in the season opener! So now we're onto option seven. Morikawa is not a poor play, but I'd rather use him elsewhere. Unfortunately, this is the world I created for myself.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jon Rahm ($12,000)
Middle Range: Viktor Hovland ($11,100)
Lower Range: Harris English ($9,000)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Sahith Theegala - I have to get him in somewhere, right? I'm forced to start over after Spieth broke my heart, and I don't feel like going too big at the beginning of a streak, so I'll go with Theegala. He handled Muirfield well last year and has only improved since.

Previous Results