Weekly Preview: The Masters

The Masters

Augusta National Golf Club
Augusta, GA

The PGA Tour heads to Augusta for another edition of the Masters.

I'm not sure if it's the long layoff between majors -- or that it's simply because it's the Masters -- but there's always something different about this week, always a little more excitement than any other event. Golf fans might prefer one of the other three majors, but no tournament can match the hype of the Masters year in and year out. 

While trying to determine why everyone is a little more amped when Masters Week rolls around, I came up with one primary reason, and it's the course. There may be better tracks, but it's hard to match the visuals you get at Augusta National. Whether it's the greens, the undulation of the fairways, the water, the flowers, there's always something interesting to look at. Even if the golf isn't great, you're still glued to the TV. 

Everyone seems even a bit more amped than usual, and that's because all signs point to Tiger Woods returning to action. I doubt he will be a factor on the weekend, though, and something I'm looking forward to is the uncertainty, as this is probably the most wide-open the event has been in a long time. The only golfer who enters on a heater is one that has never won a major, and none of the elite players have flashed their best in a while. In my mind, there is no clear favorite and about 10-to-15 guys with a good shot to take home the green jacket.

All odds via golfodds.com as of 2:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Hideki Matsuyama shot a final-round 73 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Will Zalatoris.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (12-1)

To this point of the season, Rahm's pre-tournament odds have been a result of his name and the cache he carries with the betting public. While that remains the case this week, you can also include his track record at this event, which is pretty solid. Rahm has made the cut in all five of his starts at Augusta and finished top-10 in four of those appearances. He has not been on top of his game in 2022, but he's clearly still one of the most talented guys out there. If he gets it going early, he will be a factor to the end. With that said, I don't like his odds enough to make a play.

Justin Thomas (12-1)

Thomas has generally played second fiddle behind Rahm, but their odds are even as of press time. The funny thing is, even though they've been 1 and 1A on the odds chart all year, neither has won yet, and I don't expect either to do so here. Like Rahm, JT has all the talent needed to win, but I just don't see it happening. Thomas has never missed the cut here, but he has just one top-10 on his record through six Masters starts.

Cameron Smith (16-1)

There are a bunch of golfers with odds in this range, and a lot of them look like decent plays, so the next section might include some golfers that aren't exactly "mid-tier." As for Smith, he was on fire when we saw him at THE PLAYERS, and his track record at Augusta is solid. He's a perfect 5-for-5 in cuts made and finished top-10 in three of those starts. His best showing came in 2020 when he finished runner-up to Dustin Johnson. It will be interesting to see if Smith can take his game to the next level on the biggest stage possible.

THE NEXT TIER

Scottie Scheffler (16-1)

Scheffler is in the midst of what could be an all-time heater, especially if he takes home the green jacket. Logic tells us that no golfer in these times can win this much in such a short span, but perhaps Scheffler is that special. He has all the tools, but what we don't know is how he will handle the pressure of a lead if he finds himself there Sunday. After watching him over the past couple months, I think he will fare fine if he gets the chance.

Jordan Spieth (18-1)

This is the end of the group of players with a number in the high teens, so by choosing Spieth, I am forgoing Rory McIlroy and Johnson -- as well as the group of players at 20-1. Take that for what it's worth. Spieth is in a good spot this week. He seemed to get his ball striking on track at the Valero Texas Open, and as we've witnessed before, all he needs are a couple putts to drop and suddenly he's back in a groove on the greens. No one outside of Tiger can match Spieth's consistency at Augusta. He's a perfect 8-for-8 in cuts made and has finished top-3 a whopping five times. Spieth provides much more value at this number than anyone above him on the odds board does at his.

Will Zalatoris (25-1)

Zalatoris is the guy we thought would be winning like Scheffler is right now, but things haven't quite clicked yet. He has been very successful, but he's still searching for his first PGA Tour win. It's only a matter of time, and if he plays as well this year as he did in last year's Masters, he might just get the job done here. He has had a number of near-misses, and those are only going to serve him well down the road. Perhaps this is the time everything clicks, and those invested in him will reap the rewards.

LONG SHOTS

Justin Rose (100-1)

I always look for guys that are overlooked coming into a major, and Rose is certainly in that category at the moment. Don't get me wrong, he is under the radar for a reason, and that's mainly because his play has been off for the better part of two years. However, he knows how to get around the track, and if he gets some momentum going, he could be a factor on Sunday.

Webb Simpson (125-1)

Simpson has not been on top of his game this year, but the talent is still there. We saw some flashes of that a couple weeks ago at the Match Play event, indicating he may have turned the corner. Simpson has a decent track record at Augusta, racking up four consecutive top-20s. At these odds, all you want is a guy that knows how to win and knows his way around the course. Simpson checks both boxes.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jordan Spieth - The good news for those going with Spieth is that his prospects are good. The bad news is, it's no secret that his track record here is amazing. Though I expect the selections to be fairly spread out -- especially for the Masters -- I am expecting Spieth to be very popular in this format. He's still a solid pick even if you aren't differentiating all that much.

Moderately-owned Pick: Cameron Smith - It's tough going with a golfer fresh off a win, but that's the case for a few players at the moment. In Smith's case, his win came a few weeks ago, so he has had ample time to lock back in. Smith is right at the doorstep of reaching the next level, but he needs a major to get there. He seems unflappable, so I doubt the stage will overwhelm him.

Lightly-owned Pick: Justin Rose - It's a major, so most OAD owners won't bother going this low. However, going with Rose could be a great way to gain ground on the leaders in your league. At the least he seems like a lock to make the cut, as he has only missed one in 16 starts here. He has upside, too, having finished top-15 in half his appearances at Augusta.

Buyer Beware: Bryson DeChambeau - It's rare that I have multiple options for this slot, but that's the case this week. While I'm not fond of several players, DeChambeau seems like the safest fade of the bunch. He is still not 100 percent, and even if he were, it's more likely than not that he will struggle, as he's never had much success at Augusta.

Last Week: Chris Kirk - T35 - $41,925

Season Total: $5,343,510

This Week: Will Zalatoris - I really went back-and-forth with this pick. The reasons I like Zalatoris are listed above, so rather than repeat myself, I'll state why I didn't take some other obvious options. I'll start with my second favorite pick, and that would be Spieth. While I do like him, he's going to be far too favored for my liking. Rahm's prospects look good, but I still don't think the form is there. I've already used Scheffler and Smith. Hovland doesn't have the short game. Morikawa doesn't have the form, and finally, I'm not sold that DJ is fully back.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jordan Spieth ($11,700)
Middle Range: Will Zalatoris ($10,300)
Lower Range: Kevin Na ($8,300)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Charley Hoffman - MC

Streak: 0

This Week: Jordan Spieth - I will use my second favorite option in this format, as no one other than Woods has been more reliable at Augusta. Spieth is not in the best form, but he did shoot a 67 in his final round last week, and a good start here could vault him back into "major-winner" mode.